Trump, Iceland & EU: Greenland Bid Fallout?

Is Iceland possibly joining the EU in autumn 2027? Donald Trump’s Greenland desires are scaring Reykjavik because the signs are the same for both islands. The NATO member could seek protection under Brussels’ umbrella because Washington is putting more and more pressure on it.

The issue of Greenland appears to have been put to rest for the time being after Donald Trump appeared to back away from his plans to take over the island at the WEF in Davos.

But the 79-year-old doesn’t let the matter go: On Saturday, February 21st, the US President announced on his Truth Social platform that he would send a hospital ship to Greenland. It is supposed to take care of “the many people” “who are sick and who are not being treated there”.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen reacts coolly: “I am happy to live in a country where everyone has free and equal access to health care. Where insurance and assets do not decide whether you are treated appropriately,” she wrote on Facebook yesterday.

At the same time, the US Secretary of the Interior takes a position: “If you look at the geographical location, Greenland is something like the end cap opposite Alaska, and if you want to protect North America and the United States from missiles and drones that come over the North Pole, Greenland is an important part of the defense of the United States of America,” Doug Burgum was quoted as saying on Sunday.

The same signs as for Greenland

From this point of view, Greenland is probably not enough: Anyone who looks at the world map from the Russian perspective realizes that Iceland is just as important for the defense of the USA as Greenland. Without control of Iceland, there would be a gap through which Russian submarines could sail into the Atlantic and towards North America.

This strategic dilemma has long been a headache for Western militaries as the “GIUK gap”. They already employed the admirals of the Royal Navy during the Second World War: NATO deployed them during the Cold War Sound Surveillance System (SISUS) to detect Soviet submarines secretly heading west through these waters.

GIUK is a synonym that stands for the countries involved: Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom of Great Britain alias UK. “The GIUK gap plays a crucial role in limiting Russian activities on a global level,” emphasizes the Arctic Institute.

That’s why Iceland is becoming more important

The importance of the area is increasing, it continues: “Both the Arctic NATO countries and Russia are actively restoring the Cold War military presence in the Arctic by expanding their old facilities, with a focus on the deployment and storage of missiles.”

Another point is the melting of the Arctic ice, which will make new trade routes in the Norwegian Sea navigable in the future: These lead not only past Greenland, but – apart from the Northwest Passage – also past Iceland.

In principle, the same arguments that Donald Trump cites in his Greenland desires should speak for Iceland: at best, for the missile shield Golden Dome the island is to be neglected.

Iceland as “52. “State” of the USA

And in fact, Iceland could also be Washington’s next target. This is also suggested by a scandal in mid-January: “Politico” reported that the designated US ambassador in Reykjavik had “joked” that the island was the “52nd. will become a “state” – and he will be the new governor. Local people are correspondingly outraged.

A radio host named Jon Axel Olafsson starts a petition against the future US diplomat: “These words from Billy Long, whom Donald Trump appointed as ambassador to Iceland, may have been uttered half-heartedly, but they are an insult to Iceland and the Icelanders who had to fight for their freedom and have always been a friend of the United States.”

Iceland’s government is being asked to reject Long as ambassador. The petition has so far received 5,450 signatures. The American, however, emphasizes that he was just making a joke for which he apologizes. What doesn’t make matters any better is his boss’s appearance at the WEF in Davos just a few days later.

Trump’s Iceland promise in Davos

The reason: In Switzerland, Donald Trump repeatedly confuses the two islands in northern Europe. «Until a few days ago, when I told you about Iceland [die Europäer] loved me,” says the 79-year-old in Davos. And: “I don’t know whether [die Europäer] would be there for us. They are not there for us at Iceland, I can tell you that.”

“Joke” from Diplomat Long, mix-up from President Trump: the alarm bells are ringing in Reykjavík. The island is only 300 kilometers from Greenland, which Trump can’t get out of his mind – except perhaps during his speeches in Davos. Iceland is also theoretically defenseless: there is no domestic military.

The island is actually a member of NATO. There has also been a mutual assistance pact with the USA since 1951. But the current situation is causing a rethink in Reykjavík: because of Trump’s great power behavior and also in view of his unpredictable tariffs, Iceland is being driven into the arms of the EU.

Vote already in August?

The island last flirted with joining the EU after the financial crisis in 2009, but the application was withdrawn after a change of government in 2015. Fears about fishing, sovereignty and the local currency were the main reasons for this.

On the other hand, Iceland is already closely linked to Brussels – for example through the common economic zone and the Schengen agreement. Joining the EU would clearly improve Reykjavik’s cards in terms of trade and defense: According to a survey from April 2025, 44.3 percent of respondents were in favor – and only 35.6 percent were against.

And Iceland’s government reacts: Actually, there should not be a vote before 2027 on whether accession negotiations should be started again with Brussels. But now the population could be called to the polls as early as August, Politico knows from two sources who wish to remain anonymous.

«I think that Iceland four times in a Trump speech [in Davos] was mentioned, “certainly agitated people,” said an EU official, commenting on the change of heart. “In the end, it’s all about the fish, that has always been the debate.” If Iceland votes to join, things could happen quickly: “On paper it wouldn’t be too difficult; “It could even take just a year,” says the EU source.