In October, Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy to the Middle East, predicted that his team could negotiate a peace deal between Algeria and Morocco in 60 days. But de-escalating this long-standing rivalry requires a coherent US strategy that merges diplomacy, defense, energy, and development policy.
DOHA – In October, Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, declared in an interview with the news program 60 Minutes that his team was “working on Algeria and Morocco,” which are locked in a dispute over Western Sahara’s sovereignty, and predicted a peace deal within 60 days. This prediction, framed as an easy diplomatic win, channels a familiar illusion: that North Africa’s deep-seated tensions can be resolved through summits and declarations, rather than sustained policy.
But while the United States treats North Africa as an afterthought, the region is a geopolitical fault line, and any instability there reverberates across the Mediterranean, the Sahel, and the Arab world. In an era of renewed great-power competition, America’s failure to develop a coherent North Africa strategy has created a vacuum for its rivals – namely Russia and China – to fill.
The US approach to North Africa has long defaulted to transactionalism and is often dictated by other priorities: counterterrorism goals in the Sahel determine US partnerships, while the fallout from the botched 2011 intervention in Libya is seen as NATO’s problem. Nowhere is this more evident than in the US decision to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara in 2020 – a reward for normalizing relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords.
This move was a strategic miscalculation that jettisoned decades of policy, undermined the United Nations-led mediation process, and, critically, alienated Algeria. Since then, the Algeria-Morocco rivalry has hardened, and Algeria has accelerated its military cooperation with Russia and deepened its political alignment with both Russia and China, which were all too happy to portray themselves as champions of international law.
The UN’s recent endorsement of Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara adds a new layer of complexity, revealing how international diplomacy can unintentionally entrench regional fractures. By depicting the plan as the most realistic solution, the UN is reframing self-determination – a core postwar norm – as a negotiated privilege, rather than a legal right. This pragmatism may stabilize the situation in the short term, but risks signaling that sovereignty can now yield to convenience.
Ultimately, the UN’s stance will deepen regional divides by isolating Algeria. It may even draw more external powers into the dispute, further highlighting the US strategic void. This could have serious consequences, especially amid shifting energy and security dynamics.
After the Ukraine war erupted in 2022, Europe’s effort to replace Russian hydrocarbons made Algeria an even more important source of gas, closely linking transatlantic energy security to Algeria’s stability and political orientation. But the US remains focused solely on securing deals that offer opportunities for American firms. The US Africa Command, Occidental Petroleumand Hecate Energy and Sonatrach have all recently signed memorandums of understanding with Algerian entities.
Meanwhile, North Africa as a whole continues to be an arena for great-power competition. Russia’s Africa Corps, the Wagner Group’s successor, is entrenched in Libya and increasing its influence across the Sahel, leveraging anti-Western sentiment. By contrast, China has taken a more patient and long-term approach to securing influence, signing infrastructure, telecommunications, and defense contracts with Algeria, its most pivotal partner in the region, and other countries.
Meanwhile, the US has mostly left its European allies to deal with North Africa. The power vacuum in Libya – resulting from the US “leading from behind” in the 2011 intervention and then abdicating all responsibility – has allowed foreign mercenaries, weapons smugglers, and jihadist networks to operate openly.
At the same time, the US has maintained its myopic focus on counterterrorism in the Sahel, which has led to security-first partnerships that prioritize military containment over good governance. But instead of improving security, these partnerships have militarized fragile states and deepened authoritarian rule. Now, the Sahel’s instability risks moving north into coastal North African countries.
America’s simplistic view of Algeria is emblematic of its miscalculations in the region. A sovereignty-minded, military-dominated, and energy-rich power, Algeria is Africa’s largest country in land mass and borders seven countries. Its non-aligned ethos, rooted in a deeply traumatic war of independence (1954-62), makes it resistant to US influence and an important “swing state.”
But the US, having failed to grasp that a stable and constructively engaged Algeria is fundamental to regional security, continues to place its partnership with Morocco above all else. America’s Western Sahara decision, and its other transactional policies, are effectively undermining its own security goals. A coherent US strategy that combines diplomacy, defense, energy, and development policy is necessary to help stabilize North Africa.
For starters, the US must engage in serious talks to de-escalate the Algeria-Morocco rivalry and support credible UN mediation on Western Sahara. Ideally, this would be accompanied by programs in education, local governance, and media across North Africa, which would enable the US to build long-term, trust-based partnerships. The US should also establish a North Africa security and energy forum with the European Union to align on migration, terrorism, and energy policy, and transform commercial deals into durable strategic frameworks. But Trump’s disdain for soft power and multilateralism may prove to be an insurmountable barrier.
North Africa is not some political backwater where the Trump administration can claim a quick victory. It is an important link between continents. And for too long, it has been one of America’s biggest strategic blind spots. That is likely to remain the case. Building lasting political influence and institutional ties across the region will require nothing less than restoring a sense of purpose to US foreign policy.
