- The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin.
- Florida residents should keep an eye on a tropical wave heading toward the Caribbean.
- Waters in the Caribbean are very warm, which helps storms to develop and strengthen.
As residents across the United States brace for storms that could also include tornadoes, Florida residents are watching a couple of disturbances in the tropics, especially one heading for the Caribbean.
Twenty-four hours ago, the National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook map showed nothing, with no tropical activity expected over the next seven days.
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Friday morning, Oct. 17, there are two disturbances out there. The one showing the most potential for development, is one in the central Atlantic moving toward the Caribbean, where water temperatures are very warm.
During this part of the season, “tropical development tends to occur close to Central America, the north-central Atlantic and in waters surrounding the southeastern U.S. coast,” according to AccuWeather.
With waters in the Caribbean very warm, if conditions are right, it’s possible a tropical storm or hurricane could develop during the final weeks of the season.
The next named storms of the season will be Melissa and Nestor.
Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., Oct. 17:
Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
Table of Contents
- Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida?
- Could Tropical Storm Melissa develop next week?
- Could Florida see any tropical impacts from wave approaching Caribbean?
- Most-active period of Atlantic hurricane season ends
- Are there any other tropical waves, disturbances in Atlantic basin now?
- Who is likely to be impacted by tropical waves?
- Florida weather radar for Oct. 17, 2025
- Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
- When is the peak of hurricane season?
- Hurricane names for 2025 season
- National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
- Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
- Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
- Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
- What’s next?
No.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two disturbances in the Atlantic: one in the northern Atlantic off the U.S. northern coast and the other in the tropical central Atlantic moving toward the Caribbean.
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The southern tropical wave is expected to move into the Caribbean late this weekend, according to AccuWeather.
Residents across the Caribbean and southern U.S., including Florida, should keep an eye on it and, as always, be prepared.
“There may be as many as three more tropical storms and perhaps two more hurricanes for the rest of the season,” DaSilva said.
Could Tropical Storm Melissa develop next week?
There’s just over a month left in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season but AccuWeather forecasters warned now is not the time to ignore the tropics, especially the Caribbean.
A non-tropical system over the northwestern Atlantic may develop into a tropical or subtropical storm over the next several days, which would be well ahead of the tropical wave near the equator, according to AccuWeather.
The southern tropical wave is one forecasters are keeping an eye on after it moved off the coast of Africa earlier this week.
“This is the tropical wave that could go on to define the Atlantic tropical season in terms of impact, should it get past hurdles in the coming days,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno.
The tropical wave is expected to remain poorly organized until it crosses the islands marking the eastern side of the Caribbean late this weekend. Until then, it faces a battle with dry air, wind shear and even its close proximity to South America, all conditions that hinder development.
If it gets into the central Caribbean, chances for development increase.
“The ocean heat content in the Caribbean is currently the third highest on record, behind the last two years,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, said via email Oct. 15.
“The Caribbean’s been very quiet this year, which has allowed water temperatures to get very high. We’ve said all season, if anything gets into the southern Gulf or Caribbean, we need to watch it carefully because environmental conditions are extremely favorable for development.
“Once it gets into the central Caribbean, there doesn’t look like much wind shear at all, and we could see this take off pretty quickly, if it’s able to survive the journey. It’s still possible the wave gets snuffed out before the Caribbean, although we think it will make it.
“If it reaches the Caribbean next week, we’ll have to monitor it very carefully — especially in the central Caribbean about a week from now. It has the possibility to intensify, potentially quickly, because wind shear is low and water temperatures are exceptionally warm,” DaSilva said.
Could Florida see any tropical impacts from wave approaching Caribbean?
AccuWeather forecasters said there are several scenarios that could affect where the tropical wave could go and who could be impacted:
- “One scenario is that the wave waits to develop until it approaches Central America. Depending on steering breezes at the time, it may continue westward across Central America or turn northward toward Florida.
- “In a worst-case scenario, the wave could organize into a tropical storm over the central Caribbean and move northward with a track near the U.S. Atlantic coast. Non-tropical weather systems could then draw the storm onshore with heavy rain, coastal flooding and high winds during the last week of the month.”
“There is a wide range of development and track possibilities,” AccuWeather said.
“However, based on the anticipated weather pattern and historical records, the Caribbean could be the spot for the next tropical storm and hurricane to form and affect populated areas from next week to the end of the month.”
Most-active period of Atlantic hurricane season ends
The most-active period of the Atlantic hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October, with the peak occurring Sept. 10. Hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
➤ When does hurricane season end in Florida? With more than month to go, compare these years
That doesn’t mean a tropical storm or hurricane can’t occur at any time.
According to National Hurricane Center records dating back to 1851, at least one named tropical storm or hurricane has occurred in every month of the year in the Atlantic.
However, off-season systems are not common and do not develop every year, according to AccuWeather.
When tropical systems do develop between December and May, they tend to remain weak with a majority of systems never reaching hurricane status, according to AccuWeather.
“As the peak period for tropical waves concludes in late October and November, tropical development tends to occur close to Central America, the north-central Atlantic and in waters surrounding the southeastern U.S. coast,” AccuWeather said.
Are there any other tropical waves, disturbances in Atlantic basin now?
Central Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the Caribbean Sea much of next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 30 percent.
North Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is located well off the coast of the Northeast United States. There is a slight chance that the system could develop some subtropical characteristics during the weekend before it turns northeastward over cooler waters by early next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted by tropical waves?
It’s too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the tropical wave moving toward the Caribbean, or another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic.
The area of low pressure off the northern coast of the U.S. is expected to move away from the U.S. by the weekend and into cooler waters, ending its chance for development.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
Florida weather radar for Oct. 17, 2025
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Hurricane names for 2025 season
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them. The first hurricane of the season typically forms Aug. 11.
Andrea(June 20)Barry(June 29)Chantal(July 5)Dexter: (Aug. 3)Erin: (Aug. 11; hurricane Aug. 15; major hurricane Aug. 16)Fernand: (Aug. 23)Gabrielle: (Sept. 17; hurricane Sept. 21; major hurricane Sept. 22)Humberto: (Sept. 24; hurricane Sept. 26; major hurricane Sept. 25)Imelda: (Sept. 28; hurricane Sept. 30)Jerry: Oct. 7Karen: Oct. 9Lorenzo: Oct. 13- Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
- Nestor: NES-tor
- Olga: OAL-guh
- Pablo: PAHB-lo
- Rebeth: Reh-BEH-BEH
- Sebastien: it-BAS-I don’t
- Question: TAHN-yuh
- From: from
- Wendy: WEN-dee
National Hurricane Center map: See what forecasters watching now
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Why does NHC say ‘tropical cyclone’ on its maps instead of hurricane or tropical storm?
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it’s in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a “rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation,” NOAA said.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
- Hurricane: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
- Typhoon: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
- Cyclone: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
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This story has been updated to include new information.
