Coalition led by Luís Montenegro once again distances itself from Pedro Nuno Santos’ PS and reaches 30% for the first time
If the legislative elections were held today… the AD would win. This is what indicates the tracking poll IPESPE/ Duplimetric for today’s TVI and CNN Portugal, which gives the Democratic Alliance (AD) the best result in 11 days. The coalition led by Luís Montenegro reaches 30%, confirming an upward trend that has been observed since the beginning (it had started with 23%).
Conversely, the PS continues to be unable to break away from 22%, a number it has maintained for a few days.
The fieldwork took place on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th of March, with the full impact of Pedro Nuno Santos’ visit to Guimarães (where the vase episode took place) or the entry of Pedro Santana Lopes and Durão Barroso in the AD campaign. , in Coimbra.
The AD rises to 30% of preferences, while the PS maintains 22%. Chega, which had fallen, fell again, this time to minimum values of 11 days: 13%.
A tracking poll It does not predict final results, it mainly allows you to analyze trends. It is a common tool in several countries, and is also historically used by Portuguese political parties, which only use it internally and to evaluate the evolution of the campaign. As two years ago, in the 2022 legislative elections, TVI and CNN will publish daily results.
A tracking poll is made from a mobile panel of 600 people representing the electorate. From this panel, 200 people are removed every day and another 200 added (see technical sheet below).
Daily poll
| PS | AD | He arrives | IL | BE | CDU | |
| 24/fev | 22 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| 25/fev | 21 | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| 26/fev | 21 | 26 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 27/fev | 21 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 28/fev | 22 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 29/fev | 22 | 27 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
| 1/mar | 22 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 2/mar | 22 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 3/mar | 21 | 29 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 4/mar | 22 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 5/mar | 22 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| PAN | Book | ADN | Undecided | Others/Blanks and nulls | |
| 24/fev | 1 | 3 | – | 18 | 5 |
| 25/fev | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 5 |
| 26/fev | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 5 |
| 27/fev | 1 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 6 |
| 28/fev | 2 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 5 |
| 29/fev | 1 | 3 | – | 15 | 4 |
| 1/mar | 1 | 3 | – | 17 | 3 |
| 2/mar | 1 | 2 | – | 18 | 4 |
| 3/mar | 1 | 3 | – | 17 | 3 |
| 4/mar | 1 | 3 | – | 15 | 4 |
| 5/mar | 1 | 3 | – | 16 | 4 |
Datasheet
This survey was carried out by IPESPE/ Duplitrica for TVI and CNN Portugal.
Random interviews by quotas were carried out on March 2, 3 and 4, 2024.
200 interviews were carried out per day, totaling 600 interviews, representative of the registered electorate in Portugal, aged 18 and over, based on gender criteria (53% women and 47% men), age (24% aged 18 to 34). ; 33% with 35