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The president of the BBVA Carlos Torres He has been touring Catalonia. Preaching in the opposite field while repeating your mantra that “we will not improve the offer.” It does not convince, but reiterates the same ideas firmly, as explained by people who have participated in these meetings. The negative premium of the offer during the week exceeded 9%. Torres was very sure to win. Maybe on the ace in the sleeve now of his advisory banks They are buying shares from Banco Sabadell.
JP Morgan already has directly and indirectly 1%. UBS exceeds 6% between direct participation, 2.25%, and through derived products. But they are not the only ones that increase participation. The Allies of Banco Sabadell, for being financial partners, have also done the same. The insurer Zurich already 5%, in a taking of shares that seeks to AllianzBBVA’s Banseguro partner does not accept this business. The same Amundimember of the fund manager, which already has 1.34%. These two investors will not go to the OPA.
One of the dilemmas for the BBVA is what will the big ones do, BlackRock, 6,99%, Or avant, which already reaches 4.67%, according to Bloomberg. Will the losses of the negative premium assume? Will the cash income of the future dividends lose, already committed by the Directorate of Banco Sabadell after the sale of TSB? There are some who have changed their minds, such as Mexican financial David Martínezat the beginning of the most in favor of the OPA to sell and now leaning more about staying, according to financial sources. In any case, the Catalan Bank Council has already rejected the OPA, as expected.
Meanwhile, under the table, the game is played with great intensity, Carlos Torres does not deviate an apex of the planned script. On his tour he has argued that there will not have a price up in the second bid in metallic, to which he is bound by the CNMV. Torres goes with Excel position. That betting to come to defend the OPA The Diada week also shows its will not to get carried away by those who insist that the hostile offer is very marked by the political environment.
No one believes in Catalonia that The BBVA will not end up uploading the offer. It has for this until the 24th of this month. And it is clear that both Torres and the president of Banco Sabadell, Josep Oliu are sure they will win. The logic marks that one of the two is wrong. But financial sources do not just elucidate which.
Very motivated minority
Minority are very motivated. But not to sell. Although with so many increases in participation by institutional When the OPA started a year ago. On August 6 they went 500 shareholders to the Board of Sabadell, A figure that does not gather in these times or the Telefónica Board.
The time and outcome of the BBVA OPA on Sabadell is more uncertain is more uncertain
An OPA is clarifying as time passes, but not that of BBVA on Banco Sabadell, whose end seems more uncertain than ever. The offer itself is confusing. The BBVA conditions the success of the OPA over the Sabadell bank to achieve the acceptance of at least 50% or more of the actions of the entity, although the option of giving up that limit has also been reserved and lowering it to 30% of the capital, as notified on Thursday to the SEC. This possibility would force BBVA to launch a mandatory rear bid in the Sabadell, that, according to Torres, will not mean an increase in the price. But Carlos Torres himself assured in his interview with El Periódico that they would give up if they did not reach 50% of the capital.
Market sensations
The market sensation is that The BBVA will end up improving the offer about 10% to kill the current negative differential. If it does not, run the risk of being even below 30%. Even so, the bank could govern with some conditions. But Zurich and amundi They could organize a certain resistance.
But there are also sources that think that Torres tells the truth, that the price will not improve. If so, some Political sources in Catalonia They point out that it could be just a justification for The OPA fails and abandon, A decision that would actually have been taken. Some signs suggest that it could be so, as the acceptance period is short. One of the messages that Torres has sent on his tour is that the acceptance period will not be expanded, which ends on October 7. If the game were seriously, a strategy could be extended to play with the results of the Sabadell Bank of the third quarter, which will no longer be as good as the previous ones. In summary, a month is left to see comor the OPA is resolved And its ending is increasingly doubtful.
The president of the BBVA Carlos Torres He has been touring Catalonia. Preaching in the opposite field while repeating your mantra that “we will not improve the offer.” It does not convince, but reiterates the same ideas firmly, as explained by people who have participated in these meetings. The negative premium of the offer during the week exceeded 9%. Torres was very sure to win. Maybe on the ace in the sleeve now of his advisory banks They are buying shares from Banco Sabadell.
