Amid the fervent buzz surrounding the 4 Nations Face-Off, it’s crucial to examine some critical Toronto Maple Leafs questions. Over 200 inquiries were received, reflecting the passion and curiosity among fans. Let’s unpack these questions and provide insights into the Maple Leafs’ potential moves.
First, we’ll tackle the looming salary cap situation and dive into specific questions about key players.
Let’s get started.
(Note: Some questions have been revised for readability and clarity.)
Will the Maple Leafs Seek Buyouts for High-Salary Players?
James, with the cap going up, do you think there will be more of an appetite for buyouts? I’m thinking Domi specifically and maybe Reaves or Kämpf. Trades are preferable but not likely much of a market (even with retention). Waivers? At least there would be some cap relief if they clear. — Barry M.
I believe that appetite for buyouts will indeed increase around the league. However, players like Domi, Reaves, and Kämpf are not ideal candidates for buyouts.
Ryan Reaves
Reaves has one year left on his deal at $1.35 million. Should the Leafs implement a buyout, it would result in a cap hit of $450,000 over the next two seasons, providing $900,000 in cap relief this year and a charge of half that the following year.
This approach may save money, but it is not the best option. Waiving Reaves could either clear the cap charge entirely if another team claims him, or bury most of his salary ($200,000) by sending him to the minors.
Waiving Reaves would allow the Leafs to approximate the savings from a league-minimum signing, which is just under $600,000.
David Kämpf and Max Domi
Kämpf and Domi have contracts containing significant signing-bonus money, rendering buyouts less attractive. This money is guaranteed, and buyouts cannot reduce it substantially.
Kämpf’s contract has a cap hit of $2.4 million over the next two seasons. A buyout would reduce the cap hit to $1.68 million for the next two seasons, then $358,000 for another two seasons.
Domi, at 35, carries a cap hit of $3.75 million for the next three seasons. A buyout would lower it to $2.75 million for three seasons, then $500,000 for the subsequent three seasons.
Neither option provides significant cap relief compared to waiving or trading these players, using retention to sweeten deals.
With the projected re-signing of Mitch Marner and John Tavares, costing close to $20 million combined, the Leafs will likely need to clear cap space.
Both Domi and Kämpf have partial no-trade clauses, complicating matters. The Leafs may have to find a strategic trade or waive them to manage their cap situation effectively.
The Goalie Rotation: Woll vs. Stolarz
When will the goalie rotation chit-chat stop? — Paul I.
The debate over the goalie rotation is likely to persist until the playoffs commence. Joseph Woll, barring injuries, is expected to start Game 1 of Round 1, given his recent workload and reliability.
Anthony Stolarz has been impressive, boasting a league-best .929 save percentage among goalies with a minimum of 15 appearances.
Woll, with a .909 save percentage, has handled the primary work while also dealing with the team’s poor defensive support.
Stolarz’s advanced statistics are equally noteworthy. He leads the league in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, with 0.95 GSAx/60, compared to Woll’s 0.48 GSAx/60.
The key question is whether Stolarz can maintain this level of play while handling a heavier workload. His impact in the playoffs could be substantial.
The Leafs are fortunate to have two solid goaltenders who can provide a strong foundation for their postseason push.
Anthony Stolarz currently owns the league’s top save percentage at .929. (John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
The Leafs have a strong positional depth which could translate to better defensive performance and playoff readiness.
Considerations for Marner’s Line
With Domi and Matthews back together, Willy and Johnny clicking, is it time to see if Marner can drive his own line to spread the scoring threat out more? — Frank P.
The experiment of pairing Domi with Auston Matthews did not yield the desired results. The Leafs should consider this combination only if injuries occur.
Matthews and Marner serve dual roles in the team — scoring and shutting down opponents. Their prominent status in the lineup suggests the Leafs are wary of altering their dynamic.
The ideal scenario involves adding another skilled center who can balance the lineup and exploit the bottom-six more effectively.
Until a significant trades occurs, the Leafs might have to manage with their current roster, even if it means some creative lineup adjustments.
Historically, the Leafs’ primary lines have struggled in the playoffs, indicating the need to explore alternative combinations in the upcoming season.
Bobby McMann’s Impact and Unusual Journey
Can you put in perspective how rare what Bobby McMann is doing? ECHL to being an actual difference-maker in the NHL at almost 30 years old. — Dustin L.
McMann’s progression from the ECHL to the NHL is indeed an extraordinary story. At nearly 30, he has already scored 32 goals in 113 NHL games.
Only 45 players have started in the ECHL and later scored 30 NHL goals, and most of these players achieved their NHL success much earlier in their careers.
Comparable players include Alex Burrows, Rich Peverley, and Justin Danforth, who developed differently and were signed late into their careers.
Bobby McMann has 32 career goals in his first 113 NHL games. (Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
McMann’s journey suggests that he is the ‘total package’ in terms of size, skating ability, shot quality, and defensive awareness.
His success is unexpected yet celebrates his perseverance and hard work. He stands as a valuable addition to the Leafs’ top-six lineup.
The Future of Alex Steeves with the Leafs
Alex Steeves is lighting it up with the Marlies this year and is a pending RFA. Do you think he holds any value around the league and could be a key piece in a trade? If he remains with the Leafs, could he contribute in a meaningful role next year or is he relegated to Quad A island for the rest of his career with the Leafs organization? — Kurtis H.
Despite Steeves’ impressive performance in the AHL, he does not have significant trade value. He is set to become a Group 6 UFA, making him targettable by non-playoff teams in the offseason.
Given the limited opportunities he has had with the Leafs, it seems unlikely he will be recalled, even with forward injuries.
Management views him as a valuable player in the AHL, but questions his potential impact in the NHL.
The contrast between Steeves and McMann highlights the nuances in player development. McMann’s skill set is more conducive to success at the NHL level.
If Steeves continues to impress, he may find a home on a team prioritizing development and depth but will likely do so in a limited role.
Negotiations with John Tavares: Balancing Longevity and Value
Please tell me the Leafs don’t play to re-sign Tavares to any kind of term just because he’s had a bounce-back year? He’s old and slow; the last thing this team needs is to run it back again. Anything short of a Giordano-style deal would be an overpay. Call his bluff and see if he will actually pack up and move his family for a few million bucks when he’s already made $100 million-plus. — Mike
Tavares at 35 retains his productivity, scoring about 30 goals and 75 points per season. His potential to contribute for the next six to seven years is substantial.
Giordano’s recent deal at age 39 for a two-year contract with a small salary demonstrates that long-term deals are not necessary at advanced ages.
The Leafs should aim for a shorter-term deal, likely two to four years, to maximize their financial flexibility.
Tavares deserves a ‘hometown discount,’ similar to Joe Pavelski’s contract in Dallas in 2019. Pavelski was around 30 at the time and was considered a great steal at $7 million per season.
Leafs management must ensure they do not overpay for Tavares, especially as the salary cap skyrockets. Playoff success may sway negotiations, offering leverage.
The Leafs’ ability to manage their salary cap effectively will be crucial for their long-term success. Balancing the current talent with future financial considerations is key.
Ultimately, the Leafs face difficult choices regarding their roster and cap management. Their decisions over the next few months will have a significant impact on their future.
(Top photo of John Tavares and Joseph Woll: Rich Graessle / Getty Images)
Engage with the Discussion
This analysis offers a glimpse into the Maple Leafs’ coming offseason challenges. We encourage you to share your thoughts on our predictions and engage in the discussion.
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