- Bitcoin shows three main upward trends after reducing half, the folds are now lower.
- The first upward trend lasted seven weeks, the second has only reached 20 to 25 % of the first.
- The current cycle could reach a peak between mid-October and mid-November 2025.
Bitcoin is part of what analyst Rekt Capital calls for ” bananas areas », The parabolic phase of its market cycle. It is at this stage that prices generally increase sharply, but with lower declines than at the start of the cycle.
How are Bitcoin cycles structured?
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Each bitcoin cycle has some important phases. After a halving, the market generally knows three main bullish trends in prices, each followed by corrective withdrawals. In the current cycle:
- The folds are less and less deep: the first corrections dropped by 33 %, then 31 %, and the last retrace is only 13 %.
- The bullish trends are smaller but constant: the first upward trend lasted about seven weeks. The second upward trend reached around 20 to 25 % of the first, showing decreasing yields.
- Price group occurs after breaks: unlike the previous cycles where Bitcoin jumped quickly after a break, this cycle shows periods of lateral consolidation before progressing.
Read also: The first drop in the Fed rate in 2025 stimulates the defi: Ondo, Hyperliquid and Uniswap stand out
When could bitcoin reach its peak?
These models show that the next bullish trend of Bitcoin can still produce new historical heights, but movement may not be as parabolic as previous cycles. Looking at the historical data:
- In 2017, Bitcoin reached a peak of 518 days after Halving.
- In 2021, the peak occurred 550 days after the reduction in half.
Source : Rectal
Current observations show a slight extension, perhaps adding 30 to 60 days to the cycle. This places the potential peak between mid-October and mid-November 2025.
How does the price react now?
The price of Bitcoin reacted positively after the recent decision on rates, showing a clear attempt to progress. The market has experienced a certain initial volatility, but the support levels around $ 113,500 at $ 114,900 were maintained.
What does this support area indicate?
This area has repeatedly prevented the price of lowering more, and the current price action shows that the bullish structure remains intact.
What are the short -term goals?
In the short term, Bitcoin tests higher levels while remaining in a defined bullish channel. If the price can exceed $ 118,500, then form a higher hollow, this could mean new gains to the next target area.
The immediate levels of upwards to be monitored are between $ 117,600 and $ 118,500.
Relative: Bitcoin price forecast (BTC) for September 19
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