Keystone-SDA
The Thais go to the polls on Sunday to decide between the reformists and the conservatives in power, during early legislative elections called after a period of instability marked by the decline of the clan of patriarch Thaksin Shinawatra.
(Keystone-ATS) Popular with young people in this kingdom where democracy is exercised in the narrow grip of conservative institutions, the opposition is the favorite. But analysts consider it unlikely that she will win an absolute majority, anticipating post-election negotiations on the search for an alliance.
Result: although leading the polls, the reformists of the People’s Party are likely to find themselves blocked by an agreement between the conservative Bhumjaithai party and the populist Pheu Thai party, expected to come third.
The head of the center-right government Anutin Charnvirakul therefore appears well on his way to retaining his post, which he accessed in September after a turbulent period where power evolved in step with court decisions.
The vote is also being held in a context of sluggish economic growth in the South-East Asian country, in competition with the booming Vietnam, and whose vital tourism sector has not returned to its pre-pandemic level.
The next government will also have to manage an old cross-border conflict with Cambodia which degenerated twice last year into deadly clashes.
“Last word”
Some 53 million voters are called to the polls from 8:00 a.m. (2:00 a.m. Swiss) to elect their deputies. In a fragmented political landscape, Pheu Thai’s score promises to be crucial: the formation of the dominant figure in Thai politics since the turn of the century, Thaksin Shinawatra, hopes to minimize its decline and establish itself as an indispensable partner in any coalition.
For the People’s Party, the anticipated scenario of a conservative alliance has the air of déjà vu. In 2023, its ancestor, the Move Forward movement, created a surprise by winning the legislative elections. But its candidate was excluded from the post of Prime Minister, before the party was dissolved under an implacable law against the crime of lèse-majesté.
Pheu Thai then formed a coalition with Bhumjaithai, and placed two heads of government from its ranks. Dismissed by the Constitutional Court last year, the second, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin, was replaced by the leader of Bhumjaithai, Anutin, third Prime Minister in two years.
At 59, this rich heir to a family that made its fortune in construction has been able to maneuver through shifting alliances over the past two decades to collect ministerial posts before taking the helm of the government. “There are forces beyond the Thai political scene that have the last word,” notes political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak.
Nationalism
Since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932, the kingdom has experienced a dozen military coups, bloodily repressed demonstrations as well as dissolutions of parties and regular dismissals of Prime Ministers by the Constitutional Court.
The Constitution inherited from the last coup d’état, in 2014, followed by five years of military rule, grants considerable power to institutions whose leaders are appointed by senators, themselves not elected by universal suffrage.
A referendum also organized on Sunday should allow voters to decide on the principle of constitutional reform, but no specific measure is proposed.
Before the elections, a 26-year-old People’s Party supporter, Patcharee Phadungsuksira, told AFP she wanted a system that was “more equitable and truly represents the voice of the people.”
The People’s Party advocates an end to conscription and a reduction in the number of generals. Anutin Charnvirakul is redoubling his nationalist promises after fighting on the border with Cambodia last year which left dozens dead and more than a million displaced in total.
Far from its prosperous days, Pheu Thai is overtaken in public opinion by its two adversaries, clearly damaged by the imprisonment of the wealthy Thaksin for corruption and by the dismissal of his daughter for remarks considered too courteous towards Hun Sen, the former Cambodian Prime Minister.
