The Tennessee Volunteers defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks in Week 7 − just as we predicted using EA Sports College Football 26 − and now we’re back to see how No. 11 Tennessee will fare against the No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide by running 100 simulations on what could be a historic Third Saturday in October.
The video game, which is available on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S, favored Tennessee over Arkansas by an average score of 30-26. The Vols won their real game by a slightly closer margin, defeating the Razorbacks 34-31 — a score and outcome the video game predicted twice.
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel will be leading his team into battle at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, looking to secure a decisive Southeastern Conference win and break their losing streak in Alabama. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Oct. 18.
This week, we ran 100 video game simulations of Tennessee vs. Alabama in Bryant-Denny Stadium with overcast skies and an 8 p.m. kickoff to get as close as possible to Saturday’s predicted conditions.
Tennessee vs. Alabama: EA Sports College Football 26 results
The odds aren’t really in Tennessee’s favor: The Tennessee Volunteers went 34-66 across 100 simulations against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Of those 100 simulations, 39 games were decided by seven points or fewer, with the Volunteers squeaking out wins in 17 of those matchups.
However, these were all pretty high-scoring games overall, with both teams typically scoring 20 points or more. It was not uncommon to see a score like 46-24 Alabama followed by 44-24 Tennessee (the first two games, respectively). But while Tennessee had its fair share of big victories, Alabama answered twofold.
This is definitely going to be a game decided by how well the defense performs — and can stop the Tide’s dominate passing — with several simulations pointing to shutouts in different quarters that ultimately led to victory. It may come down to a last-minute score, with the nine simulations ending with either a field goal or touchdown to win. And if it’s a close one, this nailbiter could be one of the most entertaining and panic attack inducing games all season. Here are some highlights from the simulations:
- Predicted score: Tennessee 25, Alabama 31 (based on average points across 100 simulations)
- Tennessee average yards: 107 rushing, 251 passing, 468 yards total (including special teams)
- Alabama average yards: 107 rushing, 289 passing, 523 total (including special teams)
- Turnovers: The turnover battle is pretty close with Tennessee barely beating Alabama, giving up the ball 147 times compared to 157 turnovers by Alabama.
Knox News sports reporter Mike Wilson predicts a close game, too, with Alabama beating Tennesse 28-24.
Seven simulations went into overtime, with the Tide dominating all of them except for Game 78, where the Vols intercepted the ball in second overtime to win 33-30. winning four of those games. One of those post-regulation duels went into eight overtimes, resulting in Alabama stopping Tennessee to win 46-44.
Here are some more highlights from our fifth week of simulations:
- Biggest Tennessee win: 47-6
- Biggest Alabama win: 54-3
- Closest games: 21-20, Tennessee in Game 27; 29-28, Tennessee in Game 32
- Highest scoring game: 46-44, Alabama in eight overtimes in Game 22; 58-32, Alabama in Game 83
- Lowest scoring game:14-7, Alabama
Tennessee’s record this season: 5-1
EA Sports predictions compared to actual outcomes this season: 6-0
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Keenan Thomas is the higher education reporter for Knox News. Email keenan.thomas@knoxnews.com.
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