Overview
The following overview has been generated using the information available up to December 31, 2025. It provides a synthesized summary and key insights into the crisis based on the most recent data accessible at that time.
Summary
Sudan is facing the world’s largest displacement and hunger crisis as the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023, approaches the end of its second year. Over 24.6 million people face acute food insecurity, with famine now confirmed in el-Fasher (North Darfur) and Kadugli (South Kordofan), and over 20 additional districts across Darfur and Kordofan at serious risk. Fatality estimates vary widely: ACLED recorded 29,582 deaths by the end of October 2024, while BBC and The New York Times (Oct 2025) report that the true toll could exceed 150,000 people, including an estimated 522,000 children who have died from malnutrition.
The healthcare system has largely collapsed, with over 70% of facilities in conflict zones non-functional. Cholera has spread to all 18 states, with over 113,000 cases and 3,000 deaths since 2024. Over 12 million people are now displaced—approximately 9.5 million internally and over 3 million who have fled to neighboring countries—making this the world’s largest displacement crisis.
Militarily, the conflict has expanded significantly in December 2025. The RSF consolidated control over Darfur following el-Fasher’s fall in late October and has pushed east into Kordofan, seizing the SAF’s 22nd Division base in Babanusa and capturing the strategic Heglig oil field on December 8, halting oil production and threatening state revenues. Cities including Kadugli and Dilling are now besieged, with civilians trapped and facing famine conditions. A devastating drone strike on a kindergarten and hospital in Kalogi on December 4 killed at least 114 people, including 63 children, while a separate drone attack killed six UN peacekeepers—underscoring the extreme risks to civilians and humanitarian personnel.
Ethnic violence continues to escalate, particularly in Darfur, with documented patterns of systematic sexual and gender-based violence. A women’s rights network verified 1,294 SGBV incidents since April 2023, with 87% of identified perpetrators attributed to RSF. Despite diplomatic efforts—including US and UK sanctions on RSF leaders and transnational mercenary networks, and a proposed Quartet ceasefire roadmap—fighting persists as both sides pursue territorial gains.
The conflict is destabilizing neighboring states and heightening regional insecurity. WFP has warned of imminent pipeline breaks and ration cuts from January 2026 without urgent funding, with resources exhausted within months. As Sudan nears the third year of war, the risk of state collapse and regional destabilization is acute. Urgent, coordinated international action is needed to avert further humanitarian catastrophe.
Key Insights
1. Sudan’s conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has created the world’s largest displacement crisis. As of December 2025, an estimated 12-13 million people have been forcibly displaced since the conflict began in April 2023—approximately 9.5 million internally displaced across all 18 states, and over 3 million who have fled to neighboring countries including Chad, South Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, and the Central African Republic. IOM describes Sudan as experiencing the world’s largest internal displacement crisis, with displacement continuing to surge as fighting intensifies in Kordofan and communities flee ongoing violence in Darfur.
2. A catastrophic humanitarian situation persists in Sudan, with nearly 25 million people—more than half the population—experiencing acute food insecurity. Famine conditions have been confirmed in el-Fasher (North Darfur) and Kadugli (South Kordofan), with at least 20 additional districts across Darfur and Kordofan at serious risk of sliding into famine. Global acute malnutrition exceeds 15% in several areas and surpasses 30% in parts of Darfur and Kordofan—above IPC Phase 5 famine thresholds. An estimated 825,000 children are projected to suffer severe wasting in 2026. Simultaneously, the health system has effectively collapsed: 70% of facilities are non-functional, and cholera has spread to all 18 states with over 113,000 cases and 3,000 deaths since 2024.
3. The conflict has expanded significantly in December 2025. The RSF has consolidated control over most of Darfur following el-Fasher’s fall in late October and is now advancing east into Kordofan. In early December, the RSF reportedly seized the SAF’s 22nd Division base in Babanusa and captured the strategic Heglig oil field on December 8, halting oil production and threatening state revenues. Cities including Kadugli and Dilling are now besieged. The SAF retains control of the north, east, and center—including Khartoum and parts of Kordofan—but faces sustained pressure as the RSF mobilizes to seize further territory and strategic resources.
4. Sudan is facing multiple disease outbreaks across all 18 states, with cholera, malaria, and dengue widespread. Over 113,000 cholera cases and 3,000 deaths have been recorded since 2024, with outbreaks concentrated in overcrowded displacement sites where water and sanitation systems have collapsed. Malaria has reached epidemic proportions, with Sudan accounting for 41% of global cases. The collapse of water supply systems and sanitation services continues to worsen the public health crisis.
5. Humanitarian operations face severe challenges as access constraints and funding shortfalls intensify. WFP has warned of imminent pipeline breaks and plans to cut rations from January 2026—reducing to 70% in famine areas and 50% elsewhere—with full pipeline breaks possible by April 2026 without an urgent $695 million injection. The 2025 HNRP requiring $4.2 billion remains only about 25% funded. Despite these constraints, humanitarian actors reached 1.6 million people in Khartoum between January-June 2025 and continue life-saving operations, while approximately 2.6 million returnees have been recorded across stabilized areas.
6. Civilian harm has escalated dramatically in December 2025. A devastating drone strike on a kindergarten and hospital in Kalogi, South Kordofan, on December 4 killed at least 114 people, including 63 children. A separate drone attack killed six UN peacekeepers. The UN Human Rights Office documented at least 269 civilian deaths in Kordofan since October 25. WHO has recorded 63 attacks on healthcare in Sudan in 2025, resulting in 1,611 deaths and 259 injuries. Sieges and starvation tactics are being used as weapons of war, 4with an estimated 70,000-100,000 people trapped in el-Fasher under famine conditions.
7. Systematic sexual and gender-based violence continues at alarming levels. The Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa (SIHA) verified 1,294 SGBV incidents across 14 states since April 2023, finding that rape accounted for more than three-quarters of incidents, 225 cases involved children as young as four, and where perpetrators were identified, 87% were attributed to RSF. Patterns include initial home invasions with rape, public-space attacks, and long-term detention with gang rape, torture, and forced marriage—with victims from non-Arab communities including Masalit, Fur, and Zaghawa directly targeted. These violations have been characterized as systematic, warranting investigation for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
8. International pressure on conflict parties has increased. In December 2025, the US imposed sanctions on a transnational network recruiting Colombian mercenaries for the RSF, while the UK sanctioned senior RSF commanders and pledged £21 million in emergency assistance. A US-led Quartet (US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt) has proposed a three-month humanitarian truce followed by a permanent ceasefire and civilian transition, though the SAF rejected the proposal while RSF declared a unilateral ceasefire that has not held on the ground. UN-led Geneva talks are planned, but prospects for a negotiated settlement remain dim amid continued fighting and external support to warring parties.