Stockbit 1Q25: Profit Drop & Outlook

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XLSMART TELECOM SEJAHTERA ($EXCL) has announce Financial Performance at 1Q25 – which is a performance XL Axiata before Merger with Smartfren Telecom – with net profit equal to 385 billion rupiah (-29% YoY, -23%). This result Under expectations (17% of the estimated 2025F consensus).

The number of customers rose, ARPU fell

Operationally, EXCL recorded the number of customers mobile amounting to 58.9 million at 1Q25 ( +2.3% yoy, +0.2% Qoq), with average revenue per user (ARPU) decreased to the level of 40 thousand rupiah (-9% YoY, -2%).

EXCL management said in earnings call on Tuesday (6/5) that if it is aside the revenue from business fixed broadband (First media) which was only reflected in the financial statements at the end of 2024, income The company actually dropped -5% yoy on 1Q25.

EXCL management explained that the decline in ARPU in 1Q25 was caused by a weakening of purchasing power and tighter competition due to competitors selling the first package at a cheaper price. However, management sees that The intensity of competition between operators began to subside and is expected to begin positively reflected in 2H25.

Merger is completed, continued operational integration

In line with the mergers’ action that was just completed on April 16, 2025, EXCL management is still in the operational integration stage so that it has not been able to provide guidance For 2025. However, management expect cost synergy merger equal to 100 million US dollars this year. Management will also anticipate a slight increase in burden and capex At the beginning of the integration process, before it is expected to decrease in the long run.

Key Takeaway

In earnings call Telkom Indonesia ($ Tlkm), Indosat ($ Isat), and EXCL, each management says that The intensity of competition between operators began to subside and is expected to begin positively reflected in 2H25. We consider the potential for competition between operators to be based on the ARPU decline trend, where TLKM continues to fall closer to a psychological level of 40 thousand rupiah (1Q25: 42.4 thousand rupiah, 4Q24: 44 thousand rupiah) and EXCL which has touched 40 thousand rupiah. In addition, decrease data yield What will continue will damage the profitability of all industry players in the future.

Especially for EXCL, Performance release on 2Q25 will be a new basis (new base) From the Merger Entityso that the company’s performance in the future will be judged to use that number.

🪙 HRTA 1Q25: Clean +46% Yoy, Guidance

1. $ Greyhound: Hartadinata Abadi note net profit equal to 150 billion rupiah at 1q25 (A + 6.8%, +46% YoY), in line with guidance 2025 of management targeting growth of around +40-50% yoy. Quarterly increase in net profit driven by an increase in income as big as +38% qoq. However, the increase in sales of the sale (+39% qoq) and the burden of effort (+78% qoq) cause The margin lab turunt – 120 bps QoQ to 4.1%.
2. $MIDI: Indonesia’s main midi management in earnings call 1Q25 on Tuesday (6/5) said that the company targeting income growth equal to minimum high–single digit for 2025 (Vs. Realization 2024: +15% yoy), with target SSSG equal to minimum mid–single digit (Vs. Realization 2024: +9.86% yoy). To achieve this target, MIDI allocated capex 1.5 trillion rupiah for 2025 (vs. realization 2024: 1.5 trillion rupiah). The funds are intended for opened 200 new booths for 2025 (Vs. Realization 2024: 203 outlets) with a focus on regions outside Java, as well as relocation 1 operational warehouse in June 2025. MIDI management also mentioned that dividend payout ratio For the fiscal year 2024 will be higher than the 2023 fiscal year which reaches 30%, implies minimum dividend fiscal year 2024 equal to 4.92 rupiah per share with indications dividend yield 1,2% per Tuesday (6/5).
3. $ MTLA: Director of Metropolitan Land, Olivia Surodjo, say that it recorded marketing sales worth 500 billion rupiah for 1q25 (+14,2% YoY), equivalent 25% of the target 2025 at the level of 2 trillion rupiah.
4. $ Skrn: Superkrane Main Mitra will share dividend fiscal year 2024 amounting to ~ 285 billion rupiah or 40 rupiah per shareequivalent ~ 129% dividend payout ratio and indicating dividend yield 8,6% per Tuesday (6/5). How to give In the regular market and negotiation on May 14, 2025, while payment on May 28, 2025.
5. $RAJA: Pillars of Raharja will share dividend fiscal year 2024 amounting to ~ 254 billion rupiah or 60 rupiah per share, equivalent to ~ 59% dividend payout ratio and indicating dividend yield 2,7% per Tuesday (6/5). How to give In the regular market and negotiation on May 9, 2025, while payment on June 4, 2025.
6. $ Kkgi: Commissioner Natural Resorce, Leong Muun, selling ~ 12.1 million shares of KKGI with average prices ~ 375 rupiah per sheet on 2–5 May 2025. Total transaction value reached ~ 4.5 billion rupiah. After this transaction, Leong See Mun’s ownership in KKGI dropped from 0.53% to 0.28%.
7. $ Giaa: Director of Garuda Indonesia, Rahmat Hanafi, told to Fortunate on Tuesday (6/5) that currently there is 15 units of aircraft Which Waiting for a routine maintenance schedule in the form of a process heavy maintenanceconsisting of 14 units of PT Citilink and 1 Giaa aircraft. Previously, Bloomberg Reporting at the end of last week that Giaa had stopped operations of at least 15 aircraft units due to difficulty making maintenance payments. On the other hand, Rahmat claimed to Fortunate that this issue caused by the global crisis of the supply chain of aircraft parts.
8. $BLES: Superior Prima Success Director, Andrew, say that it is targeting income growth of double digit for 2025. To support this target, the company will immediately operate new factory in BanjarnegaraCentral Java in the middle of this year. With this expansion, the total capacity of the company’s lightweight brick production will increase from 4.61 million cubic meters per year to 5.6 million cubic meters per year.
9. $MCAS: M Cash Integration announce that Bank of Singapore has added ownership of 25.8 million MCAS shares. The price and date of the transaction are not mentioned, where this transaction is only recorded in KSEI data As of May 2, 2025. After this transaction, the ownership of the Bank of Singapore in MCAS rose from 6.49% to 9.47%.
10. $ Memi: Shareholder Malacca Trust Wuwungan Insurance, Batavia Prosperindo International ($ Bpii) selling ~ 28.4 million shares of MTWI with an average price 137.5 Rupiah per Sheet. Total transactions reached ~ 3.9 billion rupiah. After this transactionBPII’s ownership in MTWI dropped from 86.86% to 85.9%.

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🔥 Another hot thing you need to know …

1. Director ATIrvan Susandy, say on Monday (5/5) that his party will immediately implement the opening of the broker and domicile codealthough not detailed it further. Later, Irvan said that the opening of the broker and domicile code would be carried out not real–timewith data will be sent during the post -trading session session first session. At present, Irvan explained that the discourse was still in the development stage because there was a change in the IDX system.
2. Residential property price survey from Bank Indonesia indicate that growth Residential property prices slow down to levels +1.07% yoy at 1Q25 (vs. 1q24: +1.89% yoy, 4q24: +1.39% yoy), marking the weakest growth since 3Q21. Meanwhile, Residential property sales at 1q25 grow +0.73% yoy (vs. 1q24: +31.16% yoy, 4q24: -15.09% yoy), supported by the growth of small -type housing segments of +21.75% yoy (vs. 1q24: +37.84% yoy, 4q24: -23.7% yoy) in the middle of the contraction of the medium type segment segment of -35.76% yoy (vs. 1q24: +37.84% yoy, 4q24: -23.7% yoy) amidst the sales of the medium type segment of -35.76% yoy (vs. Yoy, 4Q24: -16.61% yoy) and a large type of -11.69% yoy (vs. 1q24: +48.51% yoy, 4q24: +20.44% yoy).
3. Bloomberg report that BPI and between and Eramet SA are in talks to form a partnership to acquire Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co. in Weda Bay Industrial Park. If it is realized, this will be the first large transaction since BPI and between formed. Source person Bloomberg said that the stakeholders hoped to sign a memorandum of understanding at the end of May 2025, but warned that the discussion was still ongoing and the plan could change. Eramet spokesman confirmed that his party was discussing with Dan between, while Huayou Cobalt refused to comment and BPI and between had not responded to this issue.
4. Bloomberg Report that an electric vehicle battery manufacturer, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (Catl), is looking for a loan of around 1 billion US dollars To fund investment in Indonesia. Source person Bloomberg said that the funds will be used to finance joint venture–Nya Together with Indonesia Battery Corporation in Build a battery cell factory in KarawangWest Java.
5. Chairperson of the Natural Gas User Industry Forum, Yustinus Gunawan, say on Monday (5/5) that The realization of gas supply is still far below the allocation of certain natural gas prices (HGBT), where the realization in January 2025 was only 54%. Yustinus said that excess use will be imposed Regasification rates equal to 16.77 US dollars per MMBTU. Yustinus also mentioned that overpayment in January 2025 had not been compensated by the State Gas Company ($ Pgas) and other gas distribution business entities. Certain industrial gas allocation (Act) only reached 73% in February 2025 And 76% in March 2025according to Yustinus.
6. President Prabowo Subianto say on Monday (5/5) that he will meet Bill Gates on Wednesday (7/5), where President Prabowo claims that Gates offers support for social programs in Indonesia. Prabowo explained that he did not yet know what form of assistance would be offered by Gates, but President Prabowo reiterated that his government would continue to focus on the free nutritious eating program.
7. Director of the Ministry of Finance APBN Preparation, Rofyanto Kurniawan, say on Monday (5/5) that The government will allocate a budget for the program Eat nutritious free equal to 268 trillion rupiah in 2026up around +57% yoy from the 2025 APBN allocation of 171 trillion rupiah. Rofyanto said that after the target of the number of recipients in 2025 as many as 82.9 million people were achieved, The main focus of the government will shift to improving the quality of implementation program. In his presentation, the free nutritious eating program is expected to contribute to 1.03% to GDP 2026, create more than 1.32 million jobs, and help reduce poverty by 0.38 percentage point.
8. VKTR Mobility Technology ($ Vktr) Winning a Tender for Ordering 80 Units of Electric Bus local assembly (completely knocked down/CKD) from PT Transportation Jakarta (Transjakarta), with an unnamed transaction value. With the orderVKTR has supplied 152 units of electric buses on the Transjakarta network.

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