Stock Market Today: Iran Conflict & Volatility Impact

‘Fear Gauge’ Has Jumped Nearly 20% This Week

FROM 1 hr 4 min ago

Wall Street’s much-watched fear gauge jumped to its highest level of the year on Tuesday as the U.S.-Iran conflict entered its fourth day,

The CBOE Volatility Index, known as the VIX, climbed as much as 31% to an intraday high of 28.15 this morning, before finishing the day nearly 10% higher at 23.57. The index is up 19% since last Friday’s close, before U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran over the weekend.

The big moves in the VIX mirrored the wild swings in major stock indexes. Investors are scrambling to price in new risks amid fears that war in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies, spurring inflation and weighing on economic activity.

The VIX’s all-time closing high was 82.69, set in March 2020, during the initial lockdowns and the COVID-19 selloff. During the 2008 financial crisis, the index topped 80. After 9/11, it surged to nearly 45. Even last April’s tariff shock pushed it past 52.

But investors should still pay attention to the speed of this week’s surge: a near-20% jump over two sessions is the kind of rapid repricing that catches institutional investors off guard. JPMorgan noted in a client report that what’s driving markets is an “immediate repricing of geopolitical risk rather than a measured response to fundamentals.”

Read the full article here.

–Peter Gratton

Bond Yield Rise as Oil Prices Add Inflation Pressure

FROM 1 hr 13 min ago

The bond market stands to take more hits from the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, as some investors worry a surge in oil and gas prices could rekindle inflation.

Energy prices haven’t spiked to worrying levels yet, but analysts see risks that oil prices will surpass the more than 10% rise already seen since the U.S. and Israeli air strikes in Iran. If higher prices persist, the bond market, which stayed relatively stable Tuesday after a volatile start to the week, could face renewed pressure.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury, a key input into mortgage rates, is now up to about 4.06% and at risk of rising higher, analysts say.

“The longer the war continues, the greater the risk of further increases in energy prices, which could keep upward pressure on Treasury rates,” wrote John Canavan, lead analyst at Oxford Economics.

The upside risks mark a shift from last week, when the 10-year yield had dropped below 4%. The decline had pushed mortgage rates down below 6% for the first time since September 2022, making homebuying cheaper.

But now investors are debating whether bonds may get hit again. The big risk is a spike similar to that in 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a surge in energy prices—supercharging the overall rise in inflation after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Read the full article here.

–Polo Rocha

Why Berkshire Hathaway Stock Could Outperform as Geopolitical Tensions Rise

FROM 4 hr 12 min ago

Berkshire Hathaway could be set for outperformance as geopolitical tensions rise, according to one Wall Street firm.

Analysts at UBS, in a note to clients, said they “anticipate BRK’s shares will outperform the broader market given the elevated geopolitical tensions”.

Shares of the conglomerate (BRK.A, BRK.B) rose slightly Tuesday while the major indexes lost ground. Worries about developments in Iran after the U.S. and Israel launched a joint attack over the weekend have rattled markets to start to the weekdriving investors into stocks seen as defensive plays.

“Historically, BRK shares have outperformed during periods of market volatility benefiting from their diversified earnings streams, liquidity position, and largely US focused businesses,” UBS wrote.

Read the full article here.

–Kara Greenberg

Congress’s New Plan to Address Housing Affordability? More Apartments

FROM 4 hr 49 min ago

Any recent homebuyer knows that finding an affordable place to live has become increasingly difficult. Congress believes it has a solution: more apartments.

The House of Representatives passed legislation last month that would change how apartment building construction is financed, allowing banks to lend more money for multifamily projects. The result could be more apartments, which could drive down rent.

“I think you’re going to see a lot more units come online, and that will have a dramatic impact, we believe, on the abundance of affordable housing,” said Owen Caine, assistant vice president for federal legislative affairs at the National Apartment Association.

Read the full article here.

–Terry Lane

What’s Behind the Sell-Off in Gold on Tuesday?

FROM 5 hr 17 min ago

Intensifying conflict in the Middle East is driving stocksbonds and even some safe-haven assets lower on Tuesday.

One of those have typical havens, gold, is down sharply after surging in the immediate aftermath of the initial strikes on Iran over the weekend. That’s dragging mining stocks down along with it.

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), a popular exchange traded fund tied to the price of gold, was down 4% recently, as the spot price of the precious metal dropped to around $5,130 an ounce, after hitting a high above $5,400 yesterday. Meanwhile, shares of Newmont (NOT), the world’s largest gold producer, fell more than 8% to pace S&P 500 decliners, while miners Barrick (B) and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) also tumbled.

The sell-off in mining stocks would make sense given they tend to move with metal prices, but investors are more than likely puzzled by the latest action in gold—a haven asset expected to outperform when tensions run high. Turns out, conflict-related price gains are easy come, easy go, according to commodity experts. Plus, commodity prices tend to move in the opposite direction of another haven asset, the U.S. dollar, and the greenback is gaining.

Read the full article here.

–Crystal Kim

Gas Prices Rise This Week—Where Drivers Are Paying the Most and Least

FROM 5 hr 26 min ago

The U.S. national average price of regular gasoline climbed back above $3 per gallon this week, rising nearly 8 cents from the prior week, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The increase ends a 13-week stretch in which prices had remained below $3.

That run began at the start of December, when the national average fell below $3 for the first time since May 2021. Prices then held under that mark for three months before moving higher in this week’s reading.

Oil prices have moved higher in recent days amid the Iran conflict and broader global tensions, though changes in crude markets typically take time to filter through to retail gas prices.

Read the full article here.

–Sabrina Karl

Next Fed Meeting: When It Is in March and What to Expect on Interest Rates

FROM 5 hr 44 min ago

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee next meets March 17 and 18, and officials are expected to hold the central bank’s key interest rate steady for the second meeting in a row.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet to consider cutting the federal funds rate from its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed held the rate steady at its January meeting. It lowered it by a quarter of a percentage point at each of the previous three meetings to prevent the recent job market slowdown from turning into a serious increase in unemployment.

Fed officials have mostly entered “wait-and-see” mode to assess how the economy reacts to its recent moves before cutting rates again. Financial markets are pricing in a 97% chance the Fed will hold the fed funds rate steady at its next meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

The fed funds rate influences borrowing costs on short-term loans such as credit cards and car loans, and indirectly affects rates for mortgages and other longer-term credit. Lower interest rates generally encourage spending and boost the economy, while higher interest rates reduce demand and push down inflation.

However, the central bank’s 12-person policy committee is split on the strategy ahead as it pursues its dual mandate to keep inflation low and employment high.

Read the full article here.

–Diccon Hyatt

New CEO ‘Firmly Focused on Writing Target’s Next Chapter of Growth’

FROM 6 hr 54 min ago

New Target CEO Michael Fiddelke says he is confident “in the momentum we’re building.” For one day, at least, investors appear to agree.

Target (TGT) shares surged more than 6% to rank among the top gainers in the S&P 500 Tuesday after the big-box retailer reported better-than-expected fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter profit and issued rosy guidance.

The Minneapolis-based company reported Q4 adjusted earnings of $2.44 per share, well above the $2.16 consensus of analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha. Net sales of $30.45 billion declined 1.5% year-over-year but essentially were in line with expectations.

For fiscal 2026, Target expects adjusted EPS of $7.50 to $8.00, with the midpoint comfortably above analysts’ consensus estimate of $7.66, and net sales up 2%, slightly higher than expectations. Its current-quarter adjusted earnings estimate of “flat to up slightly” from the $1.30 of a year ago was below consensus.

“Our team is firmly focused on writing Target’s next chapter of growth,” said Fiddelke, who took over as CEO a month ago. He added that the company “saw a healthy, positive sales increase in February, serving as an important milestone on our path back to growth this year, and reinforcing my confidence in the momentum we’re building and the future we’re creating together.”

Including today’s gains, Target shares have added nearly a quarter of their value since the start of the year.

Nvidia Is Morgan Stanley’s Favorite Chip Stock Again. Here’s Why

FROM 7 hr 36 min ago

Nvidia, the one-time poster child of the AI craze, is poised to regain some of its magic, according to some experts.

Morgan Stanley analysts on Tuesday named Nvidia (NVDA) their top semiconductor pick, citing an attractive valuation and a belief that conviction in the stock is primed to bounce back.

Nvidia was last Morgan Stanley’s top semis pick in September, when the firm transferred that title to memory device maker Sandisk (SNDK) amid a surge in demand for data center storage solutions. Sandisk was replaced by memory chip maker Micron (IN) in November.

Read the full article here.

–Colin Laidley

Mortgage Rates Are at Their Lowest Level in Years—Here’s What a 30-Year Loan Costs in All 50 States

FROM 8 hr 37 min ago

Nationwide mortgage rates dropped in the latest weekly average to their lowest level since September 2022, offering homebuyers some long-awaited relief.

While rates tend to move in the same direction across the country, what you’ll actually pay still depends on where you live. The difference from state to state isn’t dramatic, but it can add up over time.

Here’s how today’s average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage with no points breaks down across all 50 states.

Read the full article here.

–Sabrina Karl

Verizon Is Only Dow Component in Green Today

FROM 9 hr 46 min ago

Early trading Tuesday has been a mess for Dow Jones Industrial Average components.

An hour into the trading day, just one stock of the 30 comprising the Dow was in positive territory: Verizon Communications.

Verizon (VZ) was trading up about 1% in recent trading. The next-most-“successful” company, Chevron (CVX) was down roughly 0.2%.

The Dow was down 2.4%, or 1150 points.

MongoDB Shares Plunge on Disappointing Guidance

FROM 10 hr 17 min ago

MongoDB (MDB) shares plummeted nearly 30% early Tuesday, a day after the database software company provided a weak earnings outlook, offsetting quarterly results that exceeded analysts’ expectations.

The company projected current-quarter revenue of $659 million to $664 million, in line with Wall Street expectations. However, the company’s forecast of adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 to $1.19 came in below the Visible Alpha consensus of $1.21.

MongoDB reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter sales of $695 million, above expectations of $670 million, while its adjusted EPS of $1.65 topped the consensus estimate of $1.48.

Including today’s stark declines, MongoDB shares have lost more than 40% of their value so far in 2026 amid weakness in the software sector.

–Terry Lane

Here’s How Much Traders Expect CrowdStrike Stock to Move After Earnings

FROM 10 hr 43 min ago

CrowdStrike is set to report earnings after the closing bell Tuesday, with traders anticipating a big move in the cybersecurity provider’s stock following the results.

Options pricing suggests traders expect CrowdStrike (CRUD) stock could move as much as 7% in either direction by the end of this week. A shift of that size from Monday’s close could push the shares back above $412, recovering some of their recent losses—or drag them back down to about $357.

Shares of CrowdStrike shares have plunged 18% since the year began, amid a broader rout in software stocks driven by fears of AI disruption. However several analysts have suggested they view the sell-off as overdone, and expect the company to benefit from growing AI-related risks.

Read the full article here.

–Kara Greenberg

Jamie Dimon Sees Overlooked Risk to U.S. Amid War in Iran

FROM 10 hr 50 min ago

There could be fallout from U.S. strikes on Iran over the weekend, but not the kind that will impact the average American’s pocketbook, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Monday.

“If it’s not prolonged, there’s not going to be a major inflationary hit,” Dimon said on CNBC Monday about the risk war in Iran raises prices in America.

The inflationary risk stems from oil prices. Iran over the weekend warned ships against transiting the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows. Concerns that Iran will disrupt global oil supply by closing the strait and targeting energy infrastructure across the Middle East caused West Texas Intermediate futures to soar to an 8-month high on Monday, and they jumped a further 8% early Tuesday.

Read the full article here.

–Colin Laidley

How Investors Can Adjust to the Geopolitical Risk Sparked by the Iran Conflict—Experts Weigh In

FROM 11 hr 24 min ago

What should investors do in the face of heightened geopolitical risk?

That was a top-of-mind question on Monday as markets digested news of the strikes on Iran that sent oil prices higher and briefly put the hurt on U.S. stocks. Though broad market indexes recovered from their steep early-session declines, a couple investment experts offered up actionable advice for investors who are looking to strategically tweak their portfolios for near-term opportunity and risk.

Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of multi-asset strategies at investment banking and financial advisory firm Westwood, said this is a moment to “buy the news” as it relates to the energy sector—a salient piece of guidance in light of President Trump’s suggestion that strikes are likely to continue in the coming weeks. To Jamie Battmer, chief investment officer of independent wealth management firm Creative Planning, near-term volatility could open a window for investors to strategically re-position their portfolios, without making an active bet.

Read the full article here.

–Crystal Kim

Pinterest Shares Jump on Elliott Investment

FROM 11 hr 50 min ago

Pinterest (PINS) stock is getting a boost from Elliott Investment Management.

Shares of Pinterest jumped 9% before the bell Tuesday on news of a $1 billion investment from affiliates of Elliott.

San Francisco-based Pinterest, which describes itself as “a visual search and discovery platform where people find inspiration, curate ideas and shop products—all in a positive place online,” said it intends to use money as part of an accelerated share repurchase plan.

Pinterest’s board authorized a new $3.5 billion share repurchase program, effective today. The company intends to buy back about $2 billion worth of stock in the first half of this year.

“Elliott’s investment is a strong vote of confidence in the work we have done to build our business and the significant opportunities ahead for Pinterest,” CEO Bill Ready said. “Today’s repurchase announcement reflects our belief that our current share price undervalues the strength of our business and the significant long-term growth opportunity ahead.”

Shares of Pinterest had lost about a third of their value in 2026 entering Tuesday.

Best Buy Stock Soars on Better-Than-Expected Q4 Profit

FROM 12 hr 31 min ago

Best Buy (BBY) reported worse-than-expected fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter revenue and comparable sales, and its fiscal 2027 projections also came up short of analysts’ estimates. Its shares are soaring anyway.

Shares of Best Buy soared 12% before the bell Tuesday after the consumer electronics retailer posted Q4 adjusted earnings of $2.61 per share, well above the $2.46-per-share consensus estimate of analysts polled by Visible Alpha.

Minneapolis-based Best Buy reported revenue of $13.81 billion, down from $13.95 billion a year ago and lower than analysts’ expectation of $13.89 billion. Its comparable sales declined 0.8%, far wider than the Visible Alpha consensus of a 0.1% decrease.

“We are pleased to report better-than-expected profitability for the fourth quarter,” CEO Corie Barry said. “Our comparable sales, while within our guidance range, declined 0.8% compared to last year. Our data sources show our overall market share was at least flat, pointing to slightly softer customer demand for our industry during the holiday quarter.”

Best Buy’s fiscal 2027 guidance for fiscal 2027 revenue, adjusted EPS, and comparable sales also missed the mark.

Best Buy shares entered Tuesday down 8% year-to-date and nearly 30% lower over the past 12 months.

Stock Futures Plunge as Iran War Escalates

FROM 13 hr 23 min ago

Futures contracts connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average pointed 1.6% lower.

S&P 500 futures also were down 1.6%.

Nasdaq 100 futures sank 2.1%.