The stock markets of Seoul and Tokyo rebounded vigorously on Thursday following the sharp falls of the previous days against a backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, while oil resumed its rise, still suspended from the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
Seoul rebounds by 11%, Tokyo takes 4%
On the Seoul Stock Exchange around 00:30 GMT, the Kospi index rebounded by 11.44% to 5,676 points. A spectacular recovery following a historic plunge of 12%, in a market panicked by the repercussions of the war in the Middle East and the surge in energy prices.
The situation had led investors, including those who had taken on debt to bet on a rise in prices, to urgently adjust their positions in this market dominated by tech stocks and which had until then seemed spared by the recent wave of concerns about AI.
After falling the day before, memory chip champions Samsung Electronics (+12.42%) and SK hynix (+12.96%) soared again.
In Tokyo, the flagship Nikkei index gained 4.16% to 56,505 points, after dropping 3.61% the day before. The broader Topix index rebounded by 3.85%.
The Sydney Stock Exchange gained 0.32%. The Chinese places were not yet open.
Asian markets became calmer in the wake of a rise on Wall Street on Wednesday, on a New York market putting aside inflationary fears linked to the conflict in the Middle East and welcoming better than expected economic data in the United States.
Above all, investors are watching for signs of de-escalation in armed clashes.
“For the moment, the hope of a relaxation should favor a rebound. In the longer term, it will be necessary to closely monitor the situation and oil prices (…) caution remains in order, the situation could worsen”, comment analysts from Tokai Tokyo Intelligence.
“The rise in crude prices, due to the persistence of tensions, will lead to an increase in costs for businesses”, even if the weakening of the yen against a dollar which has become the safe haven of the foreign exchange market “could favor exporting groups”, they add.
The Japanese currency stabilized Thursday morning at 156.80 yen per dollar.
“While we can sketch out a multitude of scenarios, ranging from endless escalation to a contained outcome, the reality is that markets continue to react piecemeal to information,” says Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.
“The real situation remains largely inaccessible (…) as always in this type of situation, the context remains unstable, especially as long as the bombings continue and attacks on oil infrastructure remain the main risk,” he warns.
Oil resumes its progression
A sign of continued concerns about the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil jumped around 2% at the opening of trade in Asia on Thursday.
Around 00:30 GMT, a barrel of North American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose another 1.5% to $75.77. Trading in North Sea Brent, the market benchmark, had not yet resumed.
Tempering in a global oil market still largely in surplus, WTI and Brent closed almost in balance on Wednesday at the end of a seesaw session, after a surge at the start of the week. The barrel of Brent had thus exceeded 85 dollars on Tuesday for the first time since July 2024.
However, maritime traffic remains paralyzed in the Strait of Hormuz, a bottleneck through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transits.
This heightens fears of a prolonged disruption of hydrocarbon supplies, even though US President Donald Trump assured Tuesday that the US Navy could escort tankers “if necessary” through this strategic passage.
For their part, the Revolutionary Guards claimed Wednesday to have “total control” of the strait.
Although oil prices calmed down on Wednesday compared to the surges at the start of the week, “they show a certain skepticism about President Trump’s plan to deploy American warships to escort oil tankers in the strait,” observes Kathleen Brooks, XTB analyst.
