The phase II study of the weight loss drug petrelintide shows a weight loss of up to 10.7%, but falls short of expectations. Analysts expect price pressure for Roche shares.
Roche shares are likely to come under pressure on Friday. The reason is the study data published yesterday for the weight loss drug petrelintide, which fell short of expectations. JPMorgan leaves the rating at “neutral” with a price target of 350 francs – analyst Richard Vosser expects a small price loss.
The phase II study “Zupreme-1” shows an average weight loss of up to 10.7 percent after 42 weeks – in the placebo group it was only 1.7 percent. Sounds solid, but investors apparently hoped for more. JPMorgan analyst Vosser points out that the results were a little weaker than expected.
Women benefit significantly more
Interesting: The data shows significant gender differences. Female subjects lost significantly more weight than male participants. This could be important for the planned phase III study. Vosser assumes that with a higher proportion of women, weight reductions in the mid ten percent range will be possible in the next study phase.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth joining? Roche?
Roche emphasizes the good tolerability of petrelintide. The discontinuation rate due to adverse events was 4.8 percent, practically the same as the placebo group (4.9 percent). In the most effective treatment group, there were no cases of vomiting and no treatment discontinuations due to gastrointestinal complaints. Nausea occurred less frequently than in previous studies with shorter dosing intervals.
Combination therapy in focus
493 people with an average body mass index of 37 took part in the study. The average weight was 107 kilograms and the average age was 48 years. Participants received weekly injections at different dosages, combined with reduced calorie intake and increased physical activity.
Roche plans to publish topline results from a second phase II study in diabetes patients in the second half of 2026. In addition, a phase II study is scheduled to start this year that will examine petrelintide in combination with the experimental active ingredient CT-388. The final data from Zupreme-1 will be presented at a medical congress, where Roche also plans to present details on the design of the phase III studies.
The Swiss pharmaceutical company secured the active ingredient in 2025 through a license agreement with the Danish partner Zealand Pharma. Given the booming demand for weight loss products, the market is highly competitive – but the data now presented is apparently not enough to convince investors.
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