Jakarta –
Europe has just run its most extreme space weather simulation yet. They created a scenario so severe that not a single spacecraft survived the exercise.
The European Space Agency, ESA, staged this exercise at its mission control center in Darmstadt, Germany, to test how the satellite and its operations team would respond to a powerful solar storm rivaling the 1859 Carrington Event, the strongest geomagnetic storm ever recorded, capable of causing severe electronic disruption. The simulation is designed to test spacecraft operations and space weather readiness ahead of the Sentinel-1D mission scheduled for launch in November.
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“If such an event occurs, there is no good solution. The goal is to keep the satellite safe and minimize damage as much as possible,” said Thomas Ormston, Deputy Spacecraft Operations Manager for Sentinel-1D, in a statement from ESA, quoted by Space.com.
In this simulation, the Sun releases three threats. First, there was a very large X-class solar flare, whose radiation hit Earth within eight minutes, disrupting communications, radar and tracking systems. A barrage of high-energy protons, electrons, and alpha particles followed, hitting the spacecraft in orbit, triggering false readings, data corruption, and potential hardware damage.
Then, about 15 hours later, a massive coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth’s magnetic field. The planet’s upper atmosphere swells, increasing drag on the satellite by 400%, shifting it from its predicted orbit, increasing the risk of collision, and shortening the spacecraft’s lifespan.
On land, the same storm could overload power grids and pipes with geomagnetic energy. These simulations force ESA mission controllers to make real-time decisions, providing insight into how to plan, handle and react when such events occur.
“The enormous flow of energy emitted by the Sun could cause damage to all our satellites in orbit,” said Jorge Amaya, Space Weather Modeling Coordinator at ESA.
“Satellites in low Earth orbit are usually better protected by our atmosphere and magnetic field from space hazards, but an explosion the size of the Carrington event will not make a spacecraft safe,” he explained.
The exercise shows how a powerful solar storm can hit a variety of systems, from satellite failure, navigation disruption, to loss of critical communications. ESA scientists warn that such an event is inevitable.
“The bottom line is it’s not a question of if this will happen, but rather when,” said Gustavo Baldo Carvalho, Chief Simulation Officer for Sentinel-1D.
To prepare for the inevitable, ESA is expanding its monitoring network and preparing for the Vigil 2031 mission, a new space probe that will be at the L5 point of Earth’s Sun to provide early warning of impending solar eruptions. The goal is to ensure that spacecraft and ground infrastructure can recover quickly.
(rns/rns)
