The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is at a critical juncture in its efforts to combat climate change. As the country strives to fulfill its commitments under the Paris Agreement, it faces the challenge of balancing environmental sustainability with economic development. A new tool, SimDRC, offers policymakers a way to project and manage deforestation, providing vital insights into how various scenarios might play out.
A Tool for Proactive Planning
SimDRC is an interactive digital platform designed to project carbon emissions in the DRC under different deforestation scenarios. By comparing business-as-usual projections with those based on the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), policymakers can make more informed decisions. Developed by researchers from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and the Centre for Territorial Intelligence, this tool is essential for addressing climate change effectively.
Richard Van der Hoff, a professor at UFMG, emphasizes the value of SimDRC: “By simulating different scenarios, planners can gain valuable insights for policy formulation and sustainable forest management.”
A Comprehensive Modelling Approach
SimDRC is built on a sophisticated model that considers a wide range of factors, including hydrography, terrain elevation, soil conditions, vegetation, biomass, tree cover, forest loss, temperature, precipitation, population density, protected areas, and infrastructure like mines and roads. These elements come together to create a robust framework for understanding and predicting environmental and socio-economic impacts.
The tool allows users to generate projections from three distinct scenarios. The first, a business-as-usual model, sets a baseline for measuring emission reductions against the Paris Agreement. Under this scenario, DRC commits to reducing overall emissions by 21% and land-use change and forestry sector emissions by 28% by 2030, with deforestation projected to increase from 852,000 hectares in 2021 to over 1.1 million hectares in 2030.
The second business-as-usual scenario uses the average deforestation rate from 2016 to 2020 to project rates for 2021 to 2030, predicting that deforestation will remain stable at about 639,000 hectares.
The third scenario, based on the NDC, anticipates a moderate rise in deforestation from 613,000 hectares in 2021 to 832,000 hectares by 2030, under the Regional Low Emission Rural Development Strategies.
Van der Hoff highlights the importance of regional considerations: “That is especially important because the drivers of deforestation vary in different parts of the country.”
