With these fees taking effect on Tuesday, fears are growing that oil tankers and container ships will bear the brunt, as approximately 16 percent of refined product tankers and 13 percent of crude oil tankers may face “exorbitant” fees that threaten to significantly increase logistics costs.
In light of this development, experts and interested parties are wondering about the direct effects of this mutual confrontation on global markets: Is the maritime shipping sector actually paying the highest price for this new “war” between Washington and Beijing? How can this conflict, which has spread to the seas, affect global oil prices?
According to a report published by Bloomberg and seen by Sky News Arabia, the shipping sector is facing “major turmoil” as disputes escalate between the United States and China over fees. Oil tankers and container ships will be among the hardest hit as Chinese port tariffs targeting American ships take effect Tuesday, according to Jefferies LLC.
The Wall Street bank said in a note that roughly 16 percent of tankers carrying refined products and 13 percent of those carrying crude oil could be hit with heavy fees under Beijing’s latest plan. This tax was suddenly announced on Friday in retaliation for a US proposal to impose similar port fees on Chinese ships starting the same day.
The report quoted analysts, including Omar Point, in the note: “These fees are sufficient to cause significant disruption, especially given the large size of the fees.”
The global shipping sector is scrambling to figure out how to deal with the repercussions resulting from Beijing’s sudden move, which comes amid the return of trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world. The report stated, “The US port fees, which were first announced in April, aim to undermine China’s control over maritime trade and shipbuilding, and are part of US President Donald Trump’s efforts to achieve a commercial advantage for the United States in global trade.”
To reciprocate, Beijing suggested that an American ownership of a 25 percent stake in the ship would make it classify as an American ship and be subject to Chinese port duties – a detail that one shipowner described as a “ticking time bomb.” According to the US agency’s report.
The report indicated that many shipowners are currently rushing to review operational risks, with temporary bookings suspended. The shipping company said… with me. Moller-Maersk A/S said in a statement: “We are currently assessing the potential impact of the fees on our services calling at Chinese ports. We will inform our customers as soon as further clarifications are available.”
The industry was already racing to find solutions to cushion the blow from punitive port tariffs issued by the US Trade Representative (USTR). It now faces additional challenges from China’s response, which could cause fines to pile up quickly.
For a giant oil tanker, these fees could amount to about $6.2 million, the report stated. Tariffs on a Capesize bulk ship transporting iron ore and coal could reach $3.8 million, and a medium-sized container ship could face additional tolls of up to $180 per twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) as it departs the West Coast of the United States.
Speaking to the “Eqtisad Sky News Arabia” website, international economic and energy advisor Amer Al-Shoubaki confirmed that the maritime shipping sector “is already paying the price of the ‘tariff war’ between Washington and Beijing,” warning that this price will escalate if the strict application of tariffs and ownership conditions continues as of October 14, 2025.
The price of the “tariff war” at sea
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Al-Shoubaki explained that China imposed special port fees on ships linked to the United States, whether they were built, registered or operated by the United States, or had American ownership exceeding 25 percent. He pointed out that this measure comes in response to similar US tariffs linked to China on the same date, which creates “significant disruption in schedules and available capacities, especially for tankers and containers.”
He pointed out that the impact is significant due to the wide scope of targeting and the definition of ownership, noting that the threshold of 25 percent of the American contribution “brings global joint stock companies into the circle of fees and complicates the investigation,” stressing that major tanker companies may be within the scope due to the presence of American ownership exceeding this percentage for many ships.
He said: “The cost can be accumulated, and the fees are set on an upward scale later, and they are close to the American fees,” pointing out that there are alternatives for containers and cars to these imposed fees.
Al-Shoubaki explained that this crisis could lead to the freezing of temporary reservations between the two sides, and that reviewing the clauses bearing fees and force majeure in rental contracts “will create legal problems” that lead to an extension of waiting and changing routes, which “raises shipping costs and puts pressure on seasonal supply chains.”
He added, “These new costs redistribute capacities and change the route of flights, which raises transportation costs on the Asia-Pacific routes in particular,” and he expected that a “new balance” would be reached within a period ranging from 4 to 8 weeks “through structural engineering, if no additional escalation occurs.”
He also warned that any new tightening in the implementation of these instructions, especially in ownership tariffs or reducing exemptions, “will transfer the disruption from operational to price across trade chains and raise the level of disruption in global supply chains in general.”
The impact of duties on oil prices
Turning to the impact of the crisis on energy markets, international economic and energy advisor Al-Shoubaki explained that the immediate impact on oil prices is “limited and volatile,” but stressed that shipping costs will inevitably rise, adding “a logistics premium that gradually translates into widening regional differences and the erosion of refinery margins, especially in Asia.”
He pointed out that the price direction will depend on two paths: the first is “the severity of the implementation of these instructions or the exemptions that will accompany them,” and the second is “the momentum of aggregate demand and geopolitical risks.”
In explaining how the impact is transmitted to oil, he stressed that American and Chinese duties raise the “break-even point for long trips,” which increases shipping costs and puts pressure on currencies and differences in product prices. He explained that the effect appears first in petroleum products or liquefied gas due to the high sensitivity of their supply chains to tanker cycles.
Al-Shoubaki concluded by noting that the ability of operators to hedge and avoid Chinese and American tariffs may curb the full impact on crude prices, but “the transportation premium will remain higher than usual.”
He called for monitoring three main indicators to resolve the course of costs, which are: shipping fees on the Atlantic and Pacific routes, the possibility of expanding exemptions on both sides, and changes in the margins of Asian refineries and raw material price differences.
Difficulty in planning long-term logistics
In turn, economic expert Ali Hamoudi said in his interview with “Iqtisad Sky News Arabia” website, in response to the question: Will the maritime shipping sector pay the price of the “tariff war” between Washington and Beijing? “Market.”
In terms of increasing costs, Hamoudi explained that these new fees, which may reach $3.2 billion by 2026, add millions of dollars to operating costs and affect major transportation companies around the world.
As for the volatility of shipping prices, Hamoudi pointed out that customs duties will create a state of uncertainty in the market, which will increase the volatility of shipping prices for both containers and air freight. This instability makes it difficult for companies to plan long-term logistics.
Regarding service interruptions, economist Hamoudi said: “The decrease in demand for shipments across the Pacific, especially during the first half of 2025, led to the spread of empty flights (cancelled flights) by transport companies. This disruption is particularly evident on the routes between Asia and North America.”
Trade redirection
Regarding the impact of this trade war on global trade flows, Hamoudi said: “Both US and Chinese tariffs have stimulated efforts to restructure global supply chains. Companies are increasingly working to diversify their production to other countries in Southeast Asia and Africa to reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing and mitigate the risks of tariffs.”
On supply chain bottlenecks, he added: “A study by the Center for Complexity Science found that even if tariffs are eased, any potential rebound in demand could lead to severe logistics bottlenecks and port congestion, especially in US West Coast ports.
He pointed out that China has redirected its exports towards other markets, such as the European Union and Africa, while Chinese port activity has witnessed a noticeable slowdown on trans-Pacific routes.
As for the impact on oil prices, Hamoudi said: “This will be very negative for oil prices. If we see a decrease in exports from China, this means a decrease in consumption, a decrease in global trade, and thus a decrease in manufacturing activity, and thus a decrease in oil consumption.”
