Samsung Electronics is poised to reclaim its position as the world’s No. 1 DRAM supplier in the fourth quarter, following months of intense competition with its crosstown rival SK hynix, industry sources said Sunday.
The expected turnaround comes as a sharp rebound in both AI-optimized high-performance memory and conventional DRAM prices bolsters the Korean tech giant’s profitability, particularly in its semiconductor business.
According to projections by major securities houses, Samsung is expected to post over 18 trillion won ($12.2 billion) in operating profit for the October–December period — far above market expectations.
Of that total, the device solutions division, which handles DRAM, NAND flash and system semiconductors, is forecast to log 15.1 trillion won in operating profit, representing a 166 percent jump from the previous quarter and a 422 percent surge on-year.
Samsung ceded the global DRAM crown to SK hynix for the first time in 33 years in the first quarter and again fell behind in overall memory revenue in the second quarter, as SK hynix capitalized on its early leadership in high-bandwidth memory — a key component for training generative AI models.
However, with Samsung accelerating HBM production and stabilizing yields, the gap narrowed in the third quarter.
Market tracker TrendForce estimated DRAM market shares in the period at SK hynix 33.2 percent, Samsung 32.6 percent and Micron Technology 25.7 percent — just a 0.6 percentage point difference between the top two, down from a six-point gap in the second quarter.
Riding this momentum, analysts broadly expect Samsung to retake the DRAM lead in the fourth quarter.
A major driver of Samsung’s resurgence is the strong price rally in general-purpose DRAM. As global cloud service providers race to expand AI data centers, chipmakers have increasingly allocated capacity to HBM and other advanced memory, tightening supply for conventional DRAM.
According to DRAMeXchange, the average contract price of 8-gigabit PC-grade DDR4 soared 15.7 percent in November alone to $8.10 — the first time it has exceeded $8 since September 2018. Prices have surged nearly sixfold from a low of $1.35 in March.
TrendForce projects general-purpose DRAM prices to climb 45–50 percent in the fourth quarter, while overall DRAM prices — including HBM — are expected to rise 50–55 percent.
Samsung, which maintains the industry’s largest memory production capacity and has greater revenue exposure to commodity DRAM than its rivals, is positioned to capture an outsized share of the upside.
Kiwoom Securities analyst Pak Yu-ak expects Samsung’s DRAM operating margin to reach 53 percent in the fourth quarter, supported by a 46 percent on-quarter rise in commodity DRAM prices.
Additional momentum may come from Micron’s recent decision to withdraw from the consumer memory market starting from February 2026. While the direct volume impact is likely limited, Samsung — a major supplier of consumer DRAM and NAND — could absorb incremental demand and benefit from firmer pricing conditions.
NAND flash prices are also trending upward amid tight supply, particularly for high-performance TLC and QLC enterprise SSDs tailored for AI-centric servers. TrendForce expects NAND prices to rise 20–25 percent in the fourth quarter, further strengthening Samsung’s chip profit recovery.
yeeun@heraldcorp.com
