The Wild Ride of the 2025 SAG Awards: What It Means for the Oscars
The 31st Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards were nothing short of a rollercoaster ride, with unexpected wins and a shake-up in the Oscar race. The papal thriller "Conclave" emerged victorious in the best ensemble category, leaving many industry insiders scratching their heads. This win, coupled with key actor and actress victories, has set the stage for a chaotic Oscar season.
The Ensemble Showdown
The SAG Awards are often seen as a bellwether for the Oscars, given that actors make up the largest voting bloc in the Academy. "Conclave," starring Sergio Castellitto, John Lithgow, Isabella Rossellini, and Ralph Fiennes, won the best ensemble award, derailing the momentum of "Anora," which had previously won at the Directors’ and Producers’ Guilds.
Did you know? The SAG Awards have a history of predicting Oscar winners, with about 70% accuracy in the best ensemble category.
Key Actor and Actress Wins
Timothée Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown") and Demi Moore ("The Substance") picked up major wins in the best actor and actress categories, respectively. Chalamet’s victory over Adrien Brody ("The Brutalist") was particularly surprising, adding another layer of unpredictability to the Oscar race.
Supporting Roles: The Expected and the Unexpected
The supporting actor and actress categories saw some expected wins. Zoe Saldaña took home the best supporting actress award for "Emilia Pérez," while Kieran Culkin won best supporting actor for "A Real Pain." These wins align with industry expectations, providing some stability amidst the chaos.
TV Categories: A Mix of Predictability and Surprise
In the television categories, "Shōgun" dominated with three wins, including best ensemble in a drama series. "Only Murders in the Building" scored the prize for best comedy cast, showcasing the strength of ensemble casts in both film and television.
Complete Winners List for the 2025 SAG Awards
Best Movie Ensemble
- Winner: "Conclave"
- Nominees: "Anora," "A Complete Unknown," "Emilia Pérez," "Wicked"
Best Actress in a Movie
- Winner: Demi Moore, "The Substance"
- Nominees: Pamela Anderson, "The Last Showgirl"; Cynthia Erivo, "Wicked"; Karla Sofía Gascón, "Emilia Pérez"; Mikey Madison, "Anora"
Best Actor in a Movie
- Winner: Timothée Chalamet, "A Complete Unknown"
- Nominees: Adrien Brody, "The Brutalist"; Daniel Craig, "Queer"; Colman Domingo, "Sing Sing"; Ralph Fiennes, "Conclave"
Best Supporting Actress in a Movie
- Winner: Zoe Saldaña, "Emilia Pérez"
- Nominees: Monica Barbaro, "A Complete Unknown"; Jamie Lee Curtis, "The Last Showgirl"; Danielle Deadwyler, "The Piano Lesson"; Ariana Grande, "Wicked"
Best Supporting Actor in a Movie
- Winner: Kieran Culkin, "A Real Pain"
- Nominees: Jonathan Bailey, "Wicked"; Yura Borisov, "Anora"; Edward Norton, "A Complete Unknown"; Jeremy Strong, "The Apprentice"
Best Movie Stunt Ensemble
- Winner: "The Fall Guy"
- Nominees: "Deadpool & Wolverine," "Dune: Part Two," "Gladiator II," "Wicked"
Best TV Comedy Ensemble
- Winner: "Only Murders in the Building"
- Nominees: "Abbott Elementary," "The Bear," "Hacks," "Shrinking"
Best TV Drama Ensemble
- Winner: "Shōgun"
- Nominees: "Bridgerton," "The Day of the Jackal," "The Diplomat," "Slow Horses"
Best Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
- Winner: Colin Farrell, "The Penguin"
- Nominees: Javier Bardem, "Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story"; Richard Gadd, "Baby Reindeer"; Kevin Kline, "Disclaimer"; Andrew Scott, "Ripley"
Best Actress in a TV Movie or Limited Series
- Winner: Jessica Gunning, "Baby Reindeer"
- Nominees: Kathy Bates, "The Great Lillian Hall"; Cate Blanchett, "Disclaimer"; Jodie Foster, "True Detective: Night Country"; Lily Gladstone, "Under the Bridge"; Cristin Milioti, "The Penguin"
Best Actor in a TV Comedy Series
- Winner: Martin Short, "Only Murders in the Building"
- Nominees: Adam Brody, "Nobody Wants This"; Ted Danson, "A Man on the Inside"; Harrison Ford, "Shrinking"; Jeremy Allen White, "The Bear"
Best Actress in a TV Comedy Series
- Winner: Jean Smart, "Hacks"
- Nominees: Kristen Bell, "Nobody Wants This"; Quinta Brunson, "Abbott Elementary"; Liza Colón-Zayas, "The Bear"; Ayo Edebiri, "The Bear"
Best Actor in a TV Drama Series
- Winner: Hiroyuki Sanada, "Shōgun"
- Nominees: Tadanobu Asano, "Shōgun"; Jeff Bridges, "The Old Man"; Gary Oldman, "Slow Horses"; Eddie Redmayne, "The Day of the Jackal"
Best Actress in a TV Drama Series
- Winner: Anna Sawai, "Shōgun"
- Nominees: Kathy Bates, "Matlock"; Nicola Coughlan, "Bridgerton"; Allison Janney, "The Diplomat"; Keri Russell, "The Diplomat"
Best TV Stunt Ensemble
- Winner: "Shōgun"
- Nominees: "The Boys," "Fallout," "House of the Dragon," "The Penguin"
The Impact on the Oscars
The SAG Awards have historically been a strong indicator of Oscar success. With "Conclave" winning best ensemble and key acting awards going to unexpected winners, the Oscar race has become even more unpredictable. As the largest voting bloc in the Academy, actors’ preferences will significantly influence the final outcomes.
Pro Tip: Keep an eye on the ensemble categories, as they often predict the best picture winners.
FAQ Section
Q: How do the SAG Awards influence the Oscars?
A: The SAG Awards are a strong predictor of Oscar winners, especially in the acting categories. Since actors make up the largest voting bloc in the Academy, their preferences often align with the final Oscar winners.
Q: Why is the ensemble category important?
A: The ensemble category is crucial because it reflects the overall quality and cohesion of a film’s cast. A win in this category can boost a film’s momentum for the best picture Oscar.
Q: What does an upset win mean for the Oscar race?
A: An upset win, like Timothée Chalamet’s victory over Adrien Brody, adds unpredictability to the Oscar race. It suggests that the Academy voters may be looking for fresh faces and unexpected performances.
Stay Engaged
The 2025 SAG Awards have set the stage for an exciting and unpredictable Oscar season. As we approach the 97th Oscars ceremony, stay tuned for more insights and analysis. What do you think will be the biggest surprises at the Oscars? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
