Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 31, 2025
By Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Davit Gasparyan, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter and William Runkel
January 31, 2025, 8:30 pm ET
Interactive Maps and Resources
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast.
Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:00 pm ET on January 31. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the February 1 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
International Military Aid to Ukraine
The United Kingdom, Finland, and Czechia announced immediate and longer-term military assistance packages for Ukraine on January 31. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated that the UK would provide Ukraine with a $2.5 billion military assistance package, primarily for air defense systems and defense production localization.
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen announced a new tranche of Finnish military assistance worth $207 million. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky suggested creating a new initiative to purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine.
Russian Moves North of Kupyansk
Russian forces are expanding their salient north of Kupyansk to displace Ukrainian forces from the east bank of the Oskil River. Intensive operations intensified in September 2024. Ukrainian forces repelled a major Russian mechanized assault near Pishchane in late September. Recent advancements are near Dvorichna, Zapadne, and Novomlynsk. While the Russian Ministry of Defense and a milblogger claim victories like Dvorichna and Novomlynsk, ISW has not confirmed these.
Russian forces used mechanized assaults to expand north of Kupyansk. The 6th Combined Arms Army (CAA) leads these efforts, with elements of the 25th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 69th Motorized Rifle Division credited with advances. A Ukrainian military observer noted that Russian forces from the 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade and Volunteer Corps also participated.
Cmdr. Mashovets suggested redeploying parts of the 6th CAA, including key units, to exploit tactical gains in Dvorichna. The Russian military may also shift forces from the Vovchansk area to support these operations.
1st Guards Tank Army and Envelopment Strategies
Elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army (GTA) are also participating in Kupyansk’s envelopment. They aim to advance east and south in the Kolisnykivka-Zahryzove salient and cross the Oskil River to pressure Borova.
Russian command appears to be developing a method for slow yet strategic envelopments. Study of previous successes, like Avdiivka and Vuhledar, informs these efforts. Russian forces are also experimenting with involving multiple military districts in single envelopments to enhance coordination.
Military Strategy and Limitations
While Russian envelopments enable slow but steady advancement, they require significant numbers of troops, heavy equipment, and resources. Sustainable personnel and vehicle losses are problematic given current defense capacities. Monthly recruitment rates may not keep pace with casualty levels, affecting future offensive capabilities.
Efforts to close the Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove intensified. Advances north of Sukhi Yaly likely collapsed part of the pocket, posing challenges for Ukrainian withdrawal.
Economic Developments in Moldova
Moldovan and Transnistrian authorities agreed to accept a European Union package totaling $66.3 million. Funding will go toward gas purchases for Transnistria, reducing Russia’s economic influence and limiting its ability to provide Transnistria with free gas supplies essential for electricity generation.
Key Takeaways
- The UK, Finland, and Czechia announced significant military aid packages for Ukraine.
- Russian forces are intensifying operations north of Kupyansk, involving multiple military districts.
- Russian troops are developing a method for slow but strategic envelopments, though these require substantial resources.
- Moldova and Transnistria accepted major EU funding, diminishing Russia’s economic leverage.
Ukrainian Operations in Kursk Oblast
Russian forces continued assaults in the Sudzha salient. However, no confirmed advancements were reported. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post, continuing efforts to disrupt Russian operations.
Russian Main Efforts in Eastern Ukraine
Objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from Belgorod Oblast and approach Kharkiv City
Russian forces conducted ground attacks near Lyptsi and Vovchansk but did not advance.
Objective: Capture remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push into Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblasts
Continued offensive operations included assaults near Petropavlivka and Pishchane with limited advances.
Objective: Capture entire Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces advanced in Petrivka and Toretsk, aiming to pressure Ukrainian defenses.
Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis
Continued limited ground attacks in Zaporizhia and Dnipro regions with no confirmed gains.
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Russian forces launched 102 Shahed and decoy drones, with Ukrainian forces downing 59 drones. Damage was reported in Cherkasy and Odessa oblasts.
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation
North Korean forces reportedly withdrew from Kursk Oblast after heavy casualties. Russian government efforts to bolster recruitment included financial incentives, creating regional “Time of Heroes” programs.
Russian Technological Adaptations
The Russian Ministry of Defense is exploring new AI technologies for battlefield use.
Activities in Russian-Occupied Areas
No significant activities reported in Russian-occupied territories.
Significant Activity in Belarus
No significant military developments noted.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes due to extensive coverage in Western media. However, we evaluate and report on impacts on Ukrainian military and civilian populations.
Conclusion
The Russian offensive in Ukraine as of January 31, 2025, involves strategic envelopments, significant military aid to Ukraine, and continued efforts to secure Kupyansk. Russian forces continue to develop slow, resource-intensive strategies, necessitating substantial planning and manpower. Economic developments in Moldova and Transnistria further challenge Russian influence.
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