Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment February 10, 2025

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: February 10, 2025

Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, Grace Mappes, Olivia Gibson, Frederick W. Kagan with Nate Trotter

February 10, 2025, 5:45 pm ET

Explore interactive maps to visualize the Ukrainian conflict:

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Updated daily.

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to access ISW’s 3D terrain control map of Ukraine. Requires a computer for optimal viewing.

Click here to view the archive of ISW’s time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion. Updated monthly.

Note: The data was cut off at 12 pm ET on February 10. Future reports will be covered in the February 11 assessment.

Ukrainian Drone Line Project: A New Approach in Ground-Drone Coordination

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov unveiled the Ukrainian “Drone Line” initiative on February 10. This project aims to integrate drone and ground operations, enhancing Ukrainian military capabilities. Umerov stated that the Ukrainian military will scale up five existing drone regiments and brigades. These units will be integrated into infantry forces, forming a single strike system that can cover an area 10 to 15 kilometers deep.

The initiative will provide constant aerial support, radial combat coverage, and early detection of Russian forces. It is a significant step in Ukraine’s efforts to modernize and adapt its military strategy, formalizing ongoing efforts to enhance drone-unit coordination.

Russian Drone Centralization: Potential Drawbacks

In contrast to Ukraine’s integrated approach, Russia has centralized its drone units. This strategy was initiated in Fall 2024 when the Russian Ministry of Defense began consolidating drone detachments and operators into state-controlled units.

However, this centralization may impede Russian forces’ ability to rapidly adapt and innovate due to bureaucratic constraints. The creation of a separate unmanned systems regiment in January 2024 further highlights Russia’s intent to monopolize drone production and procurement, potentially slowing technological advancements.

North Korean Migration: Possible Motives and Violations

Russia and North Korea have reportedly increased educational ties. Russian Ambassador to North Korea, Alexander Matsegora, stated that North Korean professors will travel to Russian cities to teach Korean in universities. Additionally, three-month internships for North Korean students in Russian universities are being organized.

These announcements are suspicious as they coincide with reports by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service that North Koreans are entering Russia under student visas for construction work. This activity likely violates UNSC Resolution 2397, which bans North Korea from sending laborers abroad for income.

Russia’s Influence over Transnistria Intact Despite Aid Offer

On February 10, Transnistria, the pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway republic, rejected a 60 million euro EU aid package meant to resolve its gas crisis. Transnistria’s refusal, according to Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean, was due to pressure from Moscow.

The refusal demonstrates Russia’s continued economic dominance of Transnistria and its strategic importance to the Kremlin. Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky credited Russia’s assistance for the Hungarian supply scheme that provides gas to the breakaway republic. This dependency underscores Russia’s role in supporting Transnistria financially despite its economic challenges.

Key Takeaways from the Assessment

• Ukraine’s announcement of the “Drone Line” project highlights efforts to integrate drones with ground operations.
• The Russian centralization of drone units may hinder their adaptability and innovation in combat.
• North Korea’s education ties with Russia may facilitate undocumented labor migration.
• Transnistria’s rejection of EU aid underscores Russia’s influence over the region.

Ukrainian Offensive in Russian Federation: Strong Defensive Position

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast forced the Russian military to redeploy forces, preventing an attempted offensive in Zaporizhzhia City. This tactical victory demonstrates Ukrainian resilience and strategic foresight.

Russian Offensive Operations in Eastern Ukraine: Limited Advances

Russian forces made limited advances in several key areas. Near Kharkiv, attacks in Vovchansk did not result in confirmed gains. In the Kupyansk region, combat continued but showed no progress.

Similarly, Borova and Lyman regions saw ground assaults but no notable advancements. Ongoing clashes highlight the Russian struggle to achieve significant operational success.

Detailed Reports on Specific Areas of Conflict

Kursk Oblast

Russia has seen some gains in Kursk Oblast, with advances reported in Sverdlikovo and Cherkasskaya Konopelka. However, Ukrainian counterattacks suggest continued resistance in the region.

Kharkiv Oblast

The Russian push towards the international border with Belgorod Oblast and within range of Kharkiv City has not been successful. Continuous fighting in Vovchansk indicates regional stability for now.

Luhansk Oblast

Russian efforts to take control of the remaining parts of Luhansk Oblast and push into eastern Kharkiv Oblast continue, but no significant breakthroughs have been achieved.

Donetsk Oblast

Advances near Siversk and Chasiv Yar are minimal, with fighting continuing without substantial gains. Pokrovsk has seen recent battles, with both sides claiming success in different sectors.

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign

On February 9 to 10, Russian drones struck multiple Ukrainian cities. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 61 drones were shot down, and 22 decoy drones were lost due to electronic warfare.

Damage was reported in Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad, underscoring the ongoing aerial threat from Russian forces.

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation

Efforts to fund the war effort continue, with companies like TEK coercing employees to donate part of their salaries to military charities. Russia is also adjusting military pensions in response to inflation, further stretching state resources.

Russian Technological Adaptations

Russian forces are developing new technical solutions to counter Ukrainian drones, introducing “pocket” electronic warfare systems. Additionally, the Kizlyar Electromechanical Plant has introduced the “Solist” hybrid drone and guided munition, designed for precision strikes in challenging terrain.

Significant Activity in Belarus

While no major activities were reported in Belarus, the Kremlin’s increased military presence and integration into Russian systems continue to be a concern.

Conclusion

The ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine highlights the tactical challenges faced by both Russia and Ukraine. The Drone Line project in Ukraine represents a promising step in modernizing combat operations, while Russia’s centralization of drone units may inadvertently impede its adaptability.

The strategic importance of regions like Transnistria and the influence of North Korea underscore the broader geopolitical dimensions of the conflict.

We must continue to monitor these developments closely to understand the evolving dynamics of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

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