L’invasion of Ukraine it opened a new, dark chapter in the history of the world, suddenly removing the foundations of all the balances that had existed until that day. Not that before there had only been peace and rosy diplomatic relations, but no conflict had broken out with the potential to trigger aescalation globale. In fact, since Russia has been at war with Ukraine there has been talk of Third World Wara scenario that did not really seem concrete before February 24, 2022, although the whole world has had its moments of strong tension.
The involvement of Natoand more specifically the United States and the EU, as well as that of China can only force prudent moves. Those who think it is no longer necessary, now in the midst of the negotiation phase, have enviable optimism but hope for a utopia. The experts, in fact, agree on one point: we find ourselves in a delicate moment, capable of writing not only the future of Kiev but that of the entire planet. This is why it is not enough just to reach an agreement as soon as possible, but it is necessary to do so without giving in to the remaining pillars in defense of the world order.
Support for Ukraine against World War III
The dialogue between the United States, the EU, Ukraine and Russia has reached a crucial moment. The closer the agreement is, the more certain we need to be of the priorities to defend (and the sacrifices on which to give in). The ongoing diplomatic work is very delicate, it sees all the critical issues that have emerged being taken to the extreme in order to arrive at negotiatefrom the seemingly adamant Russian demands to the Western need to send a message.
As unpleasant as it sounds and is, part of this tug-of-war is also a contest in which the powers flex their muscles, enough to strengthen their position, but not so much as to trigger an unsustainable response. In case of failure, all the effort made so far by Ukraine and all the countries that have supported it will have been of little use. Kiev has never been just an attacked friendly country in need of supportrather representing an example to convey the image of an alliance compactsolid, strong and capable. THE
n other words, an alliance that is better not to attacknot because he demands it with a direct threat – which would instead cause the opposite result – but because it is inconvenient to antagonize. Strengthening Ukraine is a means of deterrence, part of a strategy that can culminate or collapse disastrously during negotiations.
When Russia could attack Europe according to the expert
Ben Hodgesa former US general, has made available his skills and experience accumulated over the years since the outbreak of the conflict. His analysis of the progress of the war has always foreseen the possible extension to other countries, warning Europe (but also the United States) of the need to react firmly to Russian requests. The expert has now also expressed his opinion on the negotiations underway, reiterating that it is premature to celebrate, as any false step can prove fatal.
If an agreement is reached that is too favorable towards Putin, recognizing territories and discounts on sanctions for the Kremlin, the opposite of peace will be achieved. Indeed, it is very likely, according to Hodges’ forecasts, that an inadequate peace agreement will lead Russia to attack Europe or in any case NATO, in the event that they show signs of weakness, fears and in general excessive condescension.
In this regard, the expert disputes precisely the peace plan in 28 points presented by the United States, judging it excessively advantageous for Moscow, despite all the other states involved in one way or another. Hodges, moreover, also invites the Atlantic Alliance to be more proactive, adopting useful measures to prevent possible attacks and not just respond to them.
