HOTEL CONTINENTAL (Nettavisen): What happens the day Vladimir Putin is no longer in power? Former Chief of the British Army between 2018 and 2022, General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith, believes it could happen sooner than we think.
Putin is the architect behind the war in Ukraine. Still, Carleton-Smith strongly cautions against thinking that what comes after Putin will be better.
– It is not inconceivable that Russia in a post-Putin world will be deeply unstable for a period of time, possibly impossible to govern from the center in Moscow. For those who wish us harm, it is a good opportunity to harm Europe, and leaves us unable to influence what happens, he says in an exclusive interview with Nettavisen in connection with the Skagenfonden’s New Year’s conference.
Uncertain for Vladimir Putin
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He says he does not know when Putin may disappear from power, and that the time after him is full of uncertainty.
– Unlike Yeltsin and Gorbachev, his two predecessors in the Kremlin, Putin has not been able to ensure his own and his family’s safety if he steps aside. Therefore, Putin must stay in power as long as he can, says the general.
However, he expects that Putin’s departure, whether it happens in a coup or in some other way, could come completely unexpectedly.
– When it comes, we don’t usually wait for it. We never fully predict these catastrophic moments.
HOW LONG DOES HE SIT? Vladimir Putin has been the strongman in Russia for 25 years, the longest of any Russian leader since Joseph Stalin.
Photo: Alexander Kazakov
The danger of internal collapse
Carleton-Smith believes that Russia’s enormous size, combined with a fragile central government, makes the country vulnerable to total fragmentation if the current regime falls.
– It is the largest country in the world, and covers eleven time zones. But at the same time it contains a series of fundamentally different central units. And I think Moscow’s authority and influence over the northern areas, the far east and the southeastern area could come under significant challenge if the central authority of the Russian president cracks or is removed in a catastrophic coup, says the general.
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He envisions a process similar to the one we saw in the Balkans, but on a much larger scale:
– I do not think it is unthinkable, and you end up with this balkanization process that leads to a deeply unstable continental Russia, which will be of deep concern to both Beijing and Europe.
The disastrous ripple effects
When asked why such a dissolution is so dangerous, Carleton-Smith points to the loss of control over the country’s borders and resources. He fears a situation characterized by lawlessness and the spread of dangerous technology.
EXPERIENCED: Sir Mark Carleton-Smith has been to Norway a number of times.
Photo: Halvor Ripegutu
– Well, in the sense that it would be unable to control its borders, that irregular migration, the catastrophic transnational flow of crime, immigration, the spread of nuclear technology – all this looks like an unholy alliance of mafia militias, organized crime and state and sub-state actors that seek to destabilize Europe both conventionally and in a hybrid way.
The general emphasizes that even though such events are difficult to pinpoint, the West must be prepared for the unthinkable to happen.
– It is not inconceivable that Russia in a post-Putin world is for a period deeply unstable, possibly impossible to govern from the center in Moscow, and as a result represents a material opportunity for those who wish us harm, but leaves us unable to influence the arrangements for Russia that may follow.
Greenland and Svalbard
Carleton-Smith is also concerned about the growing tension in the northern regions. He links the US’s increased interest in Greenland directly to the threat from the Russian submarine fleet.
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– Greenland plays a very significant strategic role in controlling the Atlantic bottlenecks through which the Russian ballistic missile and attack submarine fleets must move. And Trump believes that Europe must contribute more to that security.
Svalbard is also highlighted as an area where interests collide. The general believes the archipelago will become increasingly central to both NATO and Russia in the coming years.
– Well, I mean Svalbard, with its geographical location, is one of the outposts that is becoming increasingly strategically important if we believe that security considerations in the high Arctic north will be of increasing interest to both NATO, Europe and Russia in the next 10 to 15 years.
Concern for Northern Norway
The general also bases himself on his own experiences from the border areas in the north.
– I was in Kirkenes last about six years ago, and even then the municipalities there described in fairly colorful terms what they saw as invasive Russian cultural assimilation with regard to language, education and free movement across the border. And they described it in terms that they thought were an uncomfortable truth from time to time for Oslo, which can see events in the high north as quite distant.
As a result, he warns that the UK will increase its presence and cooperation with Norway.
– That is certainly the case with regard to military planning in Great Britain; that we expect to do more with Scandinavian partners, mainly Norway, when it comes to reorienting ourselves and refreshing our knowledge of the details of the region in a way that we were very familiar with 35 years ago, he says.
