Rupiah to USD Exchange Rate – December 9, 2025

Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — The rupiah exchange rate during trading on Tuesday, December 9 2025 is projected to fluctuate and end up weakening in the range of IDR 16,690–IDR 16,730 per US dollar. In previous trading, the rupiah closed down 47 points to IDR 16,695 per US dollar.

Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the movement of the rupiah at the beginning of the week was influenced by a combination of external and internal factors. From the external side, global markets are driven by strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the end of this week.

A number of US economic indicators, including weak employment data, increased the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut to around 85%. These expectations reinforce sentiment that lower borrowing costs can support global growth and equity market performance.

However, this optimism was limited as several Federal Reserve officials signaled caution. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the decision to cut interest rates was not yet certain, making market players wary of a possible hawkish stance.

Uncertainty also comes from Europe, where Ukraine peace talks are progressing slowly due to differences in attitudes regarding Kyiv’s security guarantees and the status of Russian-held territories. In Latin America, increased US pressure on Venezuela and talk of military action against President Nicolas Maduro have also added to geopolitical tensions.

From the domestic side, economic indicators show resilience towards the end of 2025. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is at an expansive level of 53.3, while inflation is stable at 2.7% providing room for economic recovery in 2026. This performance is reinforced by improvements in the consumer confidence index which reached its highest point in the last five months. Accommodative fiscal and monetary policies throughout the year also maintained growth momentum, in line with economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 of 5.04%.

Ministry of Finance support

Efforts to maintain the stability of the rupiah exchange rate are being reviewed by the Ministry of Finance. Indonesia is preparing new regulations to tighten the management of commodity export revenues in order to attract more foreign exchange into the country and prevent the weakening of the rupiah.

Quoted from Bloomberg, Indonesia is seeking to set new limits on how commodity exporters can use their foreign exchange earnings. Febrio Kacaribu, Director General of Economic and Fiscal Strategy at the Ministry of Finance, said the government will require natural resource exporters to place foreign exchange earnings only in state-owned banks and limit foreign exchange conversion to rupiah to a maximum of 50%.

This step was taken because the previous policy of requiring exporters to keep foreign exchange earnings domestically for one year was not effective. A regulatory loophole allows companies to temporarily convert to rupiah to avoid retention, then convert back to foreign currency and move funds abroad. Purbaya emphasized the need for tightening to ensure foreign exchange truly remains in the country.

The government is also considering issuing foreign currency bonds as an instrument for placing export funds, which can be purchased by state-owned banks and exporters with a minimum value of 1 million US dollars.

However, Citigroup economist, Helmi Arman, warned of potential negative impacts in the form of tightening interbank foreign exchange liquidity, decreasing the attractiveness of foreign direct investment, as well as reducing spot foreign exchange supply of up to around 2 billion US dollars per month. According to him, this condition could make Bank Indonesia more careful and extend the pause in easing interest rates