Rupiah Hits Record Low: IDR 17,000 vs USD – Capital Flight?

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – The rupiah exchange rate again recorded its weakest record in history against the US dollar.

At the close of trading on Tuesday (13/1/2026), the weakening of the rupiah reflects pressure on capital flows which are considered to still haunt the domestic economy.

Based on Bloomberg data, the rupiah on the spot market weakened 0.13 percent daily to Rp. 16,877 per US dollar.

A similar weakening was reflected in Bank Indonesia‘s (BI) Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor), which was at Rp. 16,875 per US dollar, down 0.13 percent compared to the previous day.

Also read: Rupiah sets weakest record in history, reaches IDR 16,877 per US dollar, this is the culprit

Pressure on Capital Flows in the Spotlight

HSBC projects that the rupiah still has the potential to weaken to close to IDR 17,000 per US dollar by the end of 2026. Managing Director, Chief India Economist and Macro Strategist as well as Asean Economist HSBC, Pranjul Bhandari, said that the future movement of the rupiah is expected to be slightly weaker than its current position in the range of IDR 16,700–IDR 16,800 per US dollar.

“We think by the end of 2026, we will probably reach IDR 17,000 or something like that. So it’s a little weaker than now,” said Pranjul in a media briefing, Monday (12/1/2026).

According to Pranjul, in general the exchange rate is influenced by two main factors, namely trade performance and financial flows. However, in the case of the rupiah, greater pressure comes from the capital flow side, especially the outflow of portfolio investment and the weakening of foreign direct investment (PMA) since last year.

This pressure is reflected in the balance of payments which has recorded a fairly wide deficit since the second quarter of 2025. In that period, the balance of payments deficit reached 6.7 billion US dollars or around Rp. 110,550,000,000,000. Conditions continued in the third quarter of 2025 with a deficit of 6.4 billion US dollars or the equivalent of IDR 105,600,000,000,000.

“Capital inflow is part of the problem, not trade,” Pranjul said.

Also read: Rupiah Weakens to IDR 16,778, Market Waits for Direction of Economic Data

Strong Trading, Rupiah Remains Vulnerable

On the other hand, Indonesia’s trade performance is considered to be still solid. The trade balance recorded a surplus for 67 consecutive months from May 2020 to November 2025. This surplus supports the current account balance which is still in the positive zone.

“Trade is not a prominent problem at the moment. I think the trade surplus will be quite strong in 2025 and the current account balance will also be positive,” continued Pranjul.

HSBC also estimates that the movement of the US dollar will tend to stagnate or weaken slightly, triggered by uncertainty over United States policy, ranging from geopolitical dynamics, changes in leadership of the Fed, to the direction of reciprocal tariff policy.

However, Pranjul reminded that the rupiah remains vulnerable. Throughout 2025, when the US dollar is relatively weak, the rupiah will actually weaken by around 3.5 percent. “If the US dollar index strengthens, then that will be a big problem for Indonesia, because the rupiah will look much weaker,” he said.

A similar view was conveyed by Doo Financial Futures currency analyst, Lukman Leong. He believes that the rupiah will still be under pressure in the short term, as the US dollar strengthens again after the hawkish statement by Federal Reserve official, William.

“The rupiah is expected to continue to weaken against the US dollar which has rebounded in response to Fed official William’s hawkish statement indicating that the Fed does not need to rush to reduce interest rates,” Lukman told Kompas.com.

Apart from that, market players are also taking a wait and see attitude ahead of the release of United States inflation data which is expected to increase. This condition has the potential to narrow the Fed’s room for easing interest rates.

Taking this sentiment into account, the movement of the rupiah is projected to remain volatile with a tendency to weaken in the range of IDR 16,800 to IDR 16,900 per US dollar.

Also read: Capital Outflow, Rupiah Predicted to Weaken to Rp. 17,000 This Year

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