Retail sales (at constant prices) are growing surprisingly strongly. In January, this increase was 4.4%. on a year-to-year basis (i.e. compared to January 2025). In December it was +5.3%. Therefore, we have a slowdown, although much weaker data from the Central Statistical Office were expected.
Retail sales are positively surprising
Economists expected growth to slow down to (on average) 3.1 percent, although there were also those who predicted a much weaker result, for example Credit Agricole assumed that it would be only +2 percent. Where does this pessimism come from? From the weather. After we received very poor data from the Polish industry, it was expected that the exceptionally (for recent years) snowy and cold winter would also freeze consumers. However, this did not happen.
The reading at constant prices is adjusted for the impact of inflation. Therefore, it does not take into account the increase or decrease in prices of specific groups of goods, but only the sales volumes. This means we get information whether Poles want to buy more goods.
What does it look like in detail?
The data shows that Poles bought new clothes and shoes in large numbers (which, given the weather, should not be surprising), and that they may have decided to change the equipment of their apartments. According to the Central Statistical Office, sales increased significantly in the groups: “textiles, clothing, footwear” (by 17.6% year on year), “furniture, electronics, household appliances” (by 10.5%), “pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, orthopedic equipment” (by 9.6%) and “press, books, other sales in specialized stores” (by 8.1%). Food sales (together with beverages and tobacco products) increased by 4.2%. However, sales in the “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” group decreased (by 4.5%).
The Central Statistical Office also adds that the share of online retail sales in total sales increased to 9.7%. (and these sales alone increased by 10.0% year on year).
“Clothing and footwear are the star (+17.6%) – winter surprises not only road workers! Consumption is still the driving force of GDP, although 1Q26 will be slower than 4Q25 (<4% y/y) due to weaker industry and construction," ING economists comment.
The surprising sales of clothing and footwear are also reported by, among others, mBank experts. Everyone emphasizes that the Central Statistical Office data are simply good, emphasizing the strength of the Polish consumer. The decline in car sales is not surprising. “From January 2026, less favorable tax limits for depreciation and leasing of combustion cars will come into force. The budget of the ‘NaszEauto’ program (subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles) has also been exhausted,” add ING economists.
