There are more and more. Prominent conservative politicians are migrating to the right-wing populist Reform UK, and party leader Nigel Farage (“Mister Brexit”) can rub his hands. Two weeks ago it was the former cabinet minister Nadhim Zahawi who found a new political home, but shortly afterwards another grandee of the Conservative Party defected to his right-wing rival: Robert Jenrick, who was most recently immigration minister in the previous Conservative government. A few days later, Tory MP Andrew Rosindell followed him, and on Monday this week it was heavyweight Suella Braverman, ex-cabinet minister and figurehead of the party right, who switched sides.
More and more Tories are recognizing the signs of the times. They assume that Nigel Farage will be the next Prime Minister and are abandoning the sinking ship of the Conservative Party. The exodus doesn’t seem to be stopping. Who will be next?
A realignment of the right in Britain is underway. At least the reform leader Nigel Farage is convinced of this. The 61-year-old, who is largely responsible for Britain’s exit from the European Union, celebrated Braverman’s defection: “She came to the view that the center-right in British politics actually needs to unite around reform.” The Conservative Party, Farage likes to claim, is dead and Reform UK will replace the Tories as the real opposition. Reform only has eight MPs in the House of Commons, but opinion polls support Farage’s optimism: Reform has been around 30 percent since May last year, while the Tories are currently languishing at 17 percent.
We are seeing a flood of Tory politicians and ex-politicians switching to Reform because they know the Conservative Party is a sinking ship
Keir Starmer
British Prime Minister
Defectors must apologize. Braverman, like Robert Jenrick before her, couldn’t say a good word about the Conservative Party, of which she had been a member for 30 years: it was only conservative “in name” but had actually been taken over by centrists. “I am proudly right-wing,” Braverman declared, “but the right has lost the battle for the Conservative Party.” And she repeated the message that Zahawi and Jenrick had previously stated: Britain is “broken”, the country is in ruins and only Nigel Farage and Reform can fix it. What all of these defectors neglected to mention is that, as former members of the previous conservative government, they themselves played a large part in all the deficits that they complain about.
Sheer opportunism
The quarrels in the conservative camp are just right for the ruling Labor party. They are currently behind Reform in the polls at 21 percent, but now see opportunities for their political opponents to wear themselves out in trench warfare. Prime Minister Keir Starmer commented on the Conservative exodus: “We are seeing a flood of Tory politicians and ex-politicians switching to Reform because they know the Conservative Party is a sinking ship.”
In fact, it is not safe for Nigel Farage to accept senior Conservatives into his party. His strategy so far has been to offer himself and Reform UK as a radical alternative to the establishment. But if scores of former government members who are responsible for the misery in the country that Farage denounced are switching to the right-wing populists, it looks like sheer opportunism.
Die Daily Mail is already very worried. “Our message,” read a headline in the right-wing mass paper, “to Reform and the Tories: Stop fighting each other – and end the Labor nightmare.” There are fears that a split in the right-wing camp could allow the Social Democrats to assert themselves despite current poor poll numbers. One would prefer to see a pact between the two parties.
Call Tory-Partei
But that is becoming increasingly unlikely. On the one hand, the defectors’ scolding of colleagues created a lot of bad blood. On the other hand, Nigel Farage’s declared goal is to wipe out the Conservative Party, something he has repeatedly promised his party colleagues. For him, the only acceptable pact would be a complete Tory takeover.
No wonder that the British are now wondering whether the Conservative Party can hold its own against the onslaught of right-wing populists. There are signs of hope. After a weak start as party leader, Kemi Badenoch has gradually improved her position since the party conference in October last year and has been able to put Prime Minister Keir Starmer under pressure in the House of Commons. Your personal poll numbers as well as those of your party have recovered slightly. She is using the defections of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman to announce that she will now “clean out the rubbish” from the Conservative Party.
Serious conservative media like this Times or the Financial Times In editorials they implore the party to be center-right, to stand up to right-wing populist culture wars with “clarity, coherence and competence” and to turn the Tories back into a party of “common sense”, because that is exactly what they say FTneed the country. Will that work? The test will come soon. Local elections and regional parliamentary elections in Wales and Scotland are due in May. They will be the yardstick for how the fight for the future of the right in British politics will turn out.