Before the perspectives, the observation. “ Over the past year, activity has recovered in the former: between October 2024 and October 2025, we went from 929,000 to 832,000 real estate transactions in France over twelve months », Indicates José Bardaji, director of studies and foresight of the BPCE group.
As the first explanatory factor for this recovery, the latter notes, unsurprisingly, the stabilization of real estate interest rates, which has enabled a strong surge in credit production (+29% over one year).
Since April 2025, the dynamic has run out of steam
But this rebound in real estate activity, of nearly 12% year-on-year, should not mask a reality, which the data expert within the BPCE group highlights: “ Yes, the recovery was strong, until last April. But since then the trend has changed. Certainly growth continues, but less strongly than a few months ago. »
Before continuing his presentation: “ To explain this shift, how can we not see two effects: on the one hand, the political and budgetary crisis that France has been experiencing since July 2025; on the other hand, the increase in transfer duties for valuable consideration (DMTO) which came into force in the spring. »
A drop in transaction volumes of 2% in 2026…
A few days ago in these columns Michel Le Bras, president of the network of agents Produits-privées.com, announced: “ I don’t see a real improvement in the market before 2027 and the next presidential election. »
It is clear that this prophecy is gaining ground among experts and observers of the real estate industry, like Groupe BPCE. According to its director of studies and foresight, the year 2026 should indeed see a slight decline in transactions, i.e. -2% compared to 2025 (new and old property markets).
In addition to the degraded economic context, marked by an increase in unemployment and the weakened confidence of sellers and buyers fueled by geopolitical and fiscal tensions and uncertainties, a second brake would slow down real estate activity in the former this year: the rise in interest rates.
…and borrowing rates at 3.35%
Thus, according to Groupe BPCE forecasts, “ the average rate of home loans would reach 3.35% in 2026 » (without further details on the calendar), against 3.15% at the end of 2025.
And this for several reasons, two of which are noted by Groupe BPCE: the fact that the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) is stabilizing, with an end to downward pressure on financing costs; and the expected increase in the 10-year OAT, which will partially be reflected in mortgage rates.
In 2026, in a context of weakening real estate demand, price dynamics would thus prove to be weaker: after an increase, at national level, of 1% over the year 2025, real estate prices would only show a timid +0.7% at the end of the year 2026. Would the 2025 rebound have been just a parenthesis?
