Unpredictable Weather Patterns Complicate Pollen Forecasts

Allergy sufferers in central Spain are facing an uncertain spring, with forecasts suggesting a potentially “strong” pollen season. However, the erratic weather patterns of recent weeks make it challenging to predict the intensity and duration of grass pollen exposure.The heavy rains experienced in March have already disrupted typical allergy patterns, triggering symptoms earlier than usual for some individuals.

Expert Insights: Awaiting April’s Atmospheric Behavior

According to Jesús Borja, head of allergology at the General university Hospital of Ciudad Real, the severity of the pollen season hinges on April’s weather. Borja notes that patients have been largely asymptomatic, an unusual occurrence for this time of year.

The patient in the outputs, outdoors, has to be protected because it is foreseeable that there are high levels of polenes in this first stage of spring.
Jesús Borja,head of allergology at the General University Hospital of Ciudad Real

He emphasizes that a rainy April,while typical,could postpone the peak allergy period to May,when grass and olive pollen combine. Conversely, a dry April could exacerbate the situation, as dried weeds and grasses release their pollen all at once. A “fresh” and rainy April, however, might lead to a more typical spring allergy season.

“Everything depends on the temperatures,” Borja stated, highlighting the anticipation surrounding April’s weather and its impact on what is already projected to be a “high pole” season.

Pollen Count Predictions: High Levels Expected

The allergology service acknowledges the difficulty in gathering precise data during this transitional period. The University General Hospital plans to implement weekly, and eventually daily, pollen readings to issue timely alerts. Current forecasts, based on rain patterns and mathematical models from the Spanish Society of Allergology, indicate an intense to moderate spring in central Spain.Ciudad Real could see peaks exceeding 5,000 grains per cubic meter,while Toledo is predicted to experience even higher levels,surpassing 6,000 grains per cubic meter.

For context, [2] pollen allergy occurs when the immune system mistakenly identifies pollen as a threat, leading to symptoms such as a stuffy or runny nose, congestion, and puffy eyes.

Ancient Data: Analyzing Past Pollen Seasons

Data from the Spanish Allergology Society’s Pólenes website reveals that the previous spring was especially potent in Ciudad Real, with grass pollen counts reaching 6,212 grains per cubic meter throughout 2024. This figure surpasses the previous high of 5,388 grains recorded in 1996.

Interestingly, olive pollen levels were relatively low last year, with 6,294 grains counted, considerably less than the 7,000+ and 9,000+ grains recorded in 2021 and 2020, respectively.

Other notable pollen types from last year include Platanus (3,137 grains per square meter), marking a record for shadow banana pollen, and Cupressaceae (over 4,500 grains), which is increasingly causing allergic reactions during winter.

While the total pollen count last year reached approximately 24,000 grains,it remains below the peak years when the allergology network recorded over 25,000 grains. The relatively lower levels of Alternaria, a weed fungus that triggers allergic rhinitis, were attributed to rainfall.

Protecting Yourself During Pollen Season

Given the potential for a severe pollen season, individuals with pollen allergy should take precautions.This includes monitoring pollen forecasts, limiting outdoor activities during peak pollen times, and consulting with an allergist about appropriate medications or immunotherapy. It’s also crucial to be aware of pollen-food allergy syndrome (PFAS), also known as oral allergy syndrome (OAS), which can cause allergic reactions in the mouth or throat when eating certain fruits, vegetables, or nuts.