The main event of the week – the war in the Middle East still in the center of the world’s attention. Predictions of possible scenarios for a US-Israeli military operation in Iran are emerging.
The spiritual leader of the country, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who led the country since 1989, was killed during the military operation called “Operation Epic Fury”. Iran responded by attacking Israel and its Gulf neighbors, including the UAE and Qatar, sending oil and gas prices soaring and stock markets tumbling. Tehran launched massive missile strikes against Israel, US forces in the region and infrastructure in the Gulf states. Apart from the physical damage, the economic consequences are visible: rising prices of oil, gas and gold. In addition to armed resistance, Iran has the ability to close the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that, given the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, the United States will try to limit the rise in oil prices.
Possible scenarios
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US and Israeli strikes on Iran will inevitably disrupt supplies from the major oil-producing region of the Middle East and cause oil prices to rise. Market analysts and Middle Eastern leaders previously warned that the over-the-counter Brent crude oil price would rise by 10% to at least $100 or more due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The market will quickly feel the consequences of the military operation – the first signs of reaction appeared when the Asian markets resumed work on Sunday evening, the US web edition “Axios” reported. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and its allies, including Russia, announced on March 1 that they would increase output by 206,000 barrels per day, which may dampen the rise in oil prices somewhat, but the most important risk factor is attacks on shipping in the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz.
Although the scale and consequences of the conflict are still unknown, several scenarios should be considered. The Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Iran is a “bottleneck”, transporting about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil and about a fifth of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Prior to the US-Israeli military operation and strikes on Iran’s oil industry, Eurasia Group analysts predicted that given the expected US actions to preserve oil transit in Hormuz, even if Iran tries to respond with attacks on maritime transport, “global market fluctuations will not be critical.”
Iran is OPEC’s fourth-largest oil producer, exporting about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, mostly to China. Importantly, the conflict will affect Iran’s terminal on Kharag Island in the northern part of the Persian Gulf, from where 90% of Iran’s oil is exported. Iranian strikes on the infrastructure of other Middle East producing countries are also possible. The most extreme scenario: Iran will attack the infrastructure – oil fields, export terminals in other major Arab oil producing countries, which will be followed by a sharp rise in prices. In that case, the Persian Gulf region’s oil exports would be stopped, at least temporarily – about 18 million barrels per day, predicts Clayton Siegel, an oil market analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “We expect prices to rise to $100 and possibly beyond if the strait is closed,” predicted Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS.
Will the US and Israel be able to maintain a high strike rate? What matters most is the scale of the operation and the actual objectives of the countries involved in the conflict. The military campaign is likely to last no longer than 10 days, Western media reports – the US will also feel pressure from its allies. “The world will certainly tolerate a few days while the straits are closed, but if the war drags on for weeks, or if Iran starts attacking ships and port infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, Trump will be forced to end the strikes. So if Iran withstands this initial pressure, but toppling the Ayatollahs without a ground operation is not possible – an even stronger air strike is unlikely, and the sides will have to negotiate.
Trump’s risks and calculation
Warfare in the Middle East poses significant risks to both the United States and Trump personally. If the military operation escalates into a prolonged conflict and requires large casualties among American soldiers, it may lead to a US domestic political crisis and a political disaster for the US president. Both Democratic and Republican voters do not support new bloody wars – Trump came to power with the slogan of ending wars. The American public accepts “blitzkriegs,” such as the special operation to kidnap Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. If the war in Iran drags on and costs US soldiers, Trump can expect political upheaval after the mid-term elections for the US Congress in November 2026, fueled by rising oil prices and destabilization of the Persian Gulf region. Trump is completely indifferent to democracies or dictatorships in Venezuela, even less Iran, his goal is another – to achieve global US hegemony in oil trade.
The situation is very different from the beginning of the 2003 war in Iraq. At the time, it was a response to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the Twin Towers, and US voters saw it as a measure of self-defense. Now, no one has attacked the United States, and American public opinion has no motive to start this war. Consequently, the reaction of voters will be much more critical if the war lasts and there are casualties. The US military no longer has such strong ground forces in the Middle East as it did in 2003 in Iraq to defeat Iran militarily and conquer the entire country. The consequences of military planning failures for Trump could be colossal, especially if Iran gets China’s support. Therefore, the Americans delayed for a long time, trying to carefully plan quick and effective strikes with the goal of achieving either regime change in Tehran or the ayatollah’s agreement to all Washington’s demands. The “Venezuela option” would be the most beneficial for the US – the military operation stimulated rapid domestic political processes and changed the country’s political course, but there are no such guarantees in the case of Iran. Trump faces a difficult choice that can decide both his political future and the course of global events.
Unprofitable for Ukraine
“A US attack on Iran in any scenario will affect the war in Ukraine and harm the prospects of a cease-fire. If the Americans succeed in carrying out a blitzkrieg, it will strengthen the position of the “hawks” close to Trump, who believe that it is not profitable for the United States to stop the hostilities in Ukraine, because the war weakens Russia and maintains tension in the relations between Russia and Europe. If the war in the Middle East lasts, Trump will not have time for Ukraine peace talks and will be significantly weakened political position, making it unlikely that he will be able to reach a quick truce,” comments the “Политика Страны” channel of “Telegram”.
War in Iran – a gift to Putin?
The US-Israeli military operation began on February 28, Saturday morning, when the stock exchanges are closed and the oil price situation is uncertain. Price increases and market fluctuations will show how big a gift this will be to Putin. An unprecedented drop in oil and gas export revenues has been recorded in the Russian budget for several months now. The jump in prices could at least partially compensate for Russia’s losses due to sanctions, operations against the “shadow fleet” of the US and European countries, and a sharp decrease in the volume of imports of Russian oil from India under American pressure.
If Iran attacks its neighbors and stops oil production, processing and loading of oil in ports, tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf will be disrupted. Yemen’s Houthi rebels may come to Iran’s rescue and threaten shipping in the Red Sea. For now, Iran’s missiles are aimed at US and allied military targets, not the oil industry infrastructure of neighboring countries. In the Middle East region, oil wells are relatively small objects, many scattered over large areas, and they are difficult to hit and use expensive missiles. Oil refineries, storage facilities and ports are much more vulnerable. Their destruction, like the “tanker war” in the Persian Gulf, could lead to a dynamic rise in oil prices, which seems inevitable. How far and for how long prices will rise depends on the ability of the US and its allies to neutralize Iran’s potential for attacks on neighboring countries and destroy Iran’s missile arsenal.
Putin’s anxiety
Immediately after the death of Ali Khamenei on February 28, Putin urgently convened a meeting of the permanent members of the Russian Security Council in the form of a video conference. The circle of officials close to Putin focused on the issue of the Iranian leader’s “destructive effect of the fact of the assassination and damage to Russia’s foreign policy.” The Kremlin perceives Khamenei’s death as “the dismantling of a regime in the Middle East loyal to Moscow” and “Putin was extremely irritated”, citing “sources in the Putin administration”, the “Кремль батюшка” channel of “Telegram” reported. Another topic of discussion was Trump’s decisions and actions. Putin “expressed disappointment and even anger at the American president.” The participants of the meeting emphasized that “Washington is methodically destroying the (evil) axis of Russia’s allies”: “first the pressure on Caracas, then the collapse of the vertical of Iranian power”. The Kremlin interprets this as a systematic liquidation of regimes related to it, which relied on Moscow’s support, coordinated their actions, or at least cooperated with the Kremlin. At the same time, Putin asked his entourage to avoid any radical public statements until there is a clear understanding of who exactly controls the situation in Tehran and whether the events are not a cover for a more complex scheme. “The goal now is to prevent Russia’s emotional reaction and not to fix its position until the balance of power in the Iranian elite and the military bloc becomes clearer,” Putin decided.
Putin himself called Khamenei’s murder “a violation of moral and legal norms (..) The murder of Iran’s supreme spiritual leader and his family was committed in cynical violation of all human moral norms and international law,” Putin said in a “condolence” telegram to Iranian President Massoud Pazeshkian. Khamenei’s death day is Putin’s “black day” – and although he is emotionally unable to mourn, now the dictator is really upset. The Kremlin understands that neither a conspiracy, nor bunkers, nor hordes of Federal Security Service employees will be able to protect against a similar strike if necessary. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died in his palace under the ruins and was the Kremlin dictator’s political twin, and Putin was horrified beyond measure.
US-Israel war against Iran – Putin’s “black day” or just a warning?
In a short period of time, Russia has lost three of its main allies, which indicates a serious change in the global balance of power. One by one, regimes allied to the Kremlin have been overthrown and collapsed: Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, Nicolas Maduro’s in Venezuela, and now the dead Ali Khamenei in Iran.
In no case has Moscow been able to provide real help to the “allies” at a critical moment. Assad remained alive and free thanks to his own resources and external factors, the United States captured Maduro in January, Iran’s leader Khamenei was killed in a joint US-Israeli operation on February 28. The foreign policy consequences of the Kremlin’s failure are already visible in geopolitically sensitive areas: from the Middle East to Latin America. Countries that were traditionally motivated to cooperate with Moscow or Beijing are increasingly inclined to adhere to a simple logic: it is more profitable to agree with the United States than to rely on the support of allies who are unable to protect even their own leaders.
The US will dictate the rules
“Of course, China and Russia, along with the United States, remain the world’s largest geopolitical players, and overt American military pressure is not expected. But events in Iran show that Washington’s ability to act quickly, precisely and effectively for its own interests still exceeds the potential of any other superpower. The White House has openly said that confrontations will take place on the terms dictated by the United States.
America’s real actions prove that intervention is possible and effective, while the allies, whose geopolitical influence and power are quite illusory, will have to stand aside,” comments the “Insider-T” channel of “Telegram”. Looking at China, it becomes clear that the return to the status of a great power does not mean that Beijing will launch a large-scale operation in Taiwan, which will somewhat resemble the Russian invasion and military operations in Ukraine – it is, however, too high a cost with the whole without real allies, neither Russia nor China will engage in a direct strategic confrontation with the U.S. No matter how “multipolar” the “new world order” may seem, it will step by step approach the center of world power in Washington, but the idea of a “multipolar world” will fail.
