Following Romania’s presidential election which saw pro-EU candidate Nicosor Dan secure a victory last month, Poland’s recent election has resulted in Karol Nowricki becoming the new president. This outcome indicates a lean towards soft Euroscepticism, contrasting with the pro-EU stance of Rafał Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw. The close election, marked by a record voter turnout, underscores both the robustness of Polish democracy and the notable divisions among its citizens regarding the nation’s future trajectory.

Prime minister Donald Tusk, who has governed alongside a president from the opposing Law and Justice party (PiS) as 2023, is prepared for a similar dynamic with Nowricki.The closely fought election highlighted Poland’s crucial role in shaping Europe’s security and strategic vision. The country is embracing a more historically Eurosceptic and protectionist view of its national interests,wary of perceived interference from Brussels. While it’s premature to suggest Poland is abandoning Europe or aligning with Trump, the nation will continue to play a vital leadership role in Europe until the next parliamentary elections in 2027, albeit with potential policy disagreements.

Although strong relations between Poland and Washington are anticipated regardless of the election outcome, Nawrocki and PiS have cultivated a strong connection with the Trump governance.Nawrocki’s meeting with Trump in the Oval Office earlier this year, and the attendance of several Trump administration officials at a Conservative Political Action Committee conference in Rzeszow, highlight this bond. According to the Atlantic Council’s Warsaw office director, Poland’s ‘conservative nationalism is pro-American and pro-NATO’, setting it apart from the right-wing populism seen in countries like Hungary and Slovakia.

Poland’s relationships with other European nations, particularly Germany, will be closely monitored. The nationalist right in Poland is susceptible to anti-German sentiment, and Nowricki’s leadership of the museum of the Second World War in Gdansk suggests a potential inclination to use history for political purposes, a tactic frequently enough employed by PiS. Though, with foreign and defense policy largely under the prime minister’s purview, and strong bipartisan support for Ukraine, Nowricki’s primary role in Polish politics will likely be to moderate Tusk and his coalition’s pro-EU agenda.

tusk’s main challenge will be maintaining unity within his diverse coalition, which includes parties from across the political spectrum.Tusk has already called for a vote of no confidence on June 11 to reinforce support in response to what he describes as Poland’s ‘new political reality.’

Potential Conflicts with the EU

Poland’s challenges concerning the rule-of-law and judicial independence with Brussels may resurface if Nowricki attempts to impede Tusk’s reform agenda, largely implemented in response to the previous PiS-led government (2015-2023). As a significant EU member, Poland can ill afford protracted legal disputes with Brussels, a point Tusk, as former EU Council President, will likely emphasize to parliamentarians. Boasting one of the largest militaries and fastest-growing economies in Europe, Poland’s position in Europe is secure, even if its adherence to formal EU institutions wavers.

Poland’s ‘conservative nationalism is pro-American and pro-NATO’, something that separates Poland from the right-wing populism of other neighbouring states.

Over the next two years,leading up to Poland’s 2027 parliamentary elections,various events will shape Polish domestic politics. These include the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, EU-Russia relations, President Trump’s tariff policies, and his administration’s potential reduction of US troop levels in Europe. Under President Nawrocki, Poland will prioritize its own interests, advocate for a continued US presence in Europe, maintain support for Ukraine (though not necessarily its immediate NATO accession), and support Eurosceptic, nationalist parties both domestically and internationally.

Poland is unlikely to become a larger version of Viktor Orban’s Hungary, given its consistent economic growth, desire for connectivity with other European capitals, and alignment with Brussels and Washington on foreign and economic policy. Poland is not at risk of siding with Russia on key issues, and both its citizens and leaders recognize the importance of countering Russian disinformation and Moscow’s manipulation of history aimed at dividing Poles.

Poland’s growth has sometimes been a source of discomfort for Brussels due to its complex nature. Warsaw relies on the EU but remains cautious of its overreach, prioritizing Polish sovereignty and values. More then two decades after joining the EU and NATO, Poland’s approach to global engagement has been prosperous. The era of supranationalism and ever-closer European integration, coupled with a strong push for global multilateralism, has largely passed.

The Polish model of soft Euroscepticism, which embraces its neighborhood but prioritizes its own self-interest and growth, has proven effective.Nawrocki’s victory is not a setback for Poland’s progress but an integral part of how Poland interacts with Europe while charting its own course.