The 2025 Midterm Elections: A Crucial Justice Battlefield in the Philippines

The upcoming midterm poll in May for members of the Philippine Congress, comprising the Senate and the House of Representatives, is poised to be the most significant in the country’s history. Traditionally, midterm elections serve as a gauge of public support for or dissatisfaction with the current administration. However, this year’s event holds even greater stakes as it not only evaluates President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s government but also determines the political survival of Vice-President Sara Duterte. At its core, this election will highlight the ongoing tensions between two of the country’s most influential political families.

A Historical Coalition: The UniTeam

Looking back to 2022, the election of Marcos and Duterte on a joint ticket was expected. Their campaign slogan, UniTeam, capitalized on Marcos’ financial resources and Duterte’s popularity, leading to a decisive victory. Both leaders inherit the legacies of strongman rule from their fathers—Ferdinand Marcos Sr. in the 1980s and Rodrigo Duterte in the post-2016 era. Their authoritarian leadership styles remain attractive to many Filipinos.

However, it became apparent early on that this alliance was merely tactical, lacking a shared vision or common policies. Often dubbed a “marriage made in heaven,” their political tandem quickly deteriorated into what could be described as a strained alliance.

The Rift Between Marcos and Duterte

The disagreement began when Marcos appointed Duterte to lead the Department of Education, despite her preference for the Department of National Defense. Additionally, Duterte’s administration faced several allegations of misuse of confidential and intelligence funds, which she attributed to a plot orchestrated by Marcos’ allies.

This animosity escalated dramatically when Duterte declared she was willing to imagine beheading Marcos and digging up the dictator father’s body to toss it into the West Philippine Sea. Rodrigo Duterte, her father, further fueled the tensions by accusing Marcos of being a drug addict, while her brother Sebastian called for his resignation.

Impeachment and the Midterm Elections

Marcos has taken on a more combative stance, shedding his earlier restraint towards the Dutertes.

The political feud reached its peak when Duterte threatened to assassinate the Marcos family, stating, “I have talked to a person. I said, if I get killed, go kill Marcos, the First Lady, and the House Speaker.” Such threats, alongside allegations of corruption, led to her impeachment in the House of Representatives, initiated by Marcos’ cousin, Speaker Martin Romualdez. The impeachment trial will take place in the Senate, likely after the midterm elections.

The fate of the upcoming poll is critical for Duterte’s political future. A significant number of newly elected senators will act as her judges. If impeached, she will be ineligible for any public office, ending her presidential ambitions. Conversely, an acquittal will empower her to continue criticizing Marcos’ government and cement her bid for the presidency in 2028.

Marcos’ Offensive Against Duterte

The Marcos administration is now taking aggressive steps to undermine Duterte’s popularity and political clout. Investigating the mishandling of her office’s budget has led to a decline in both her trust and performance ratings. They are also reassessing the controversial war on drugs and police corruption under her tenure, and supporting the International Criminal Court’s probe into extrajudicial killings.

Marcos has also embraced a tougher stance against China’s maritime expansion in the West Philippine Sea, a move that resonates well with the majority of Filipinos who favor a strong response to Chinese aggression, unlike Duterte’s more accommodating approach.

The Escalation of Hostilities

Marcos’ approach to the conflict has shifted, with him taking a more combative stand against the Dutertes. When Rodrigo Duterte suggested using a bomb blast to eliminate senators, Marcos retaliated by accusing him of desperation, stating, “Maybe their situation is hopeless that they will resort to killing senators. Well, that’s the problem for a person whose only solution to all problems is to kill Filipinos.”

The Significance for 2028

The 2025 midterm elections are set to shape the political landscape for the 2028 presidential race. The outcome of the poll will not only influence government policies but also potentially redirect foreign relations, as the battle wages on between the Marcos and Duterte families. Regardless of who emerges victorious, the nation remains at the mercy of a politically fragmented government and inefficient governance driven by self-serving political dynasties.

As Filipinos prepare to cast their votes, the question remains: whose vision will define the future of the country—Marcos’ or Duterte’s?

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