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Shocks that change in real time
Table of Contents
Luis Miguel Castillaformer Minister of Economy and Finance (MEF), highlighted the current brilliance of some of the country’s economic indicators: private investment; inflation that, although it would suffer economic pressures, would remain within the target range of 1% and 3%; private consumption; creation of jobs; and real income. In addition, Peru registered a surplus trade balance, with exports approaching US$ 100,000 million based on historical exchange price levels.
Despite this, for this year Castilla projected a growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 3.2% and, going forward, it would be established at 3%.
“If we have such an enviable macroeconomy, investment opportunities and we survive the factor [Pedro] Castillo, why do we have high growth compared to Latin America, but it is a fraction of what we could really grow? he questioned.
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Although the reasons are different, there are multiple risk factors that are evolving in real time; that is, shocks that were not anticipated. He thus identified an accumulation of internal risks that would strain the Peruvian economy: the recent interruption of the gas supply, which, although it has already been partially restored, revealed the fragility of the energy system. Added to this are the climate threats caused by El Niño Costero.
In addition, there is a negative scenario that could materialize if several legislative projects with a spending initiative are approved.
In parallel, there are other elements lurking. Citizen insecurity, which affects one in five Peruvians, has become—in Castilla’s words—a kind of “new tax” for the private sector. The expansion of illicit economies is also on the list.
A sign indicates the LPG supply area while dozens of vehicles wait to refuel at the Jesús María tap. (Photo: César Campos/@photo.gec)
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The political side that cannot be ignored
“Understanding politics without the economic context does not give a complete vision of the challenges,” Castilla pointed out.
Although Peru is in a different moment than in 2021, the former minister wondered if the discordance between the economy and politics will continue. “There are two key indicators: exchange rate and spread. There is a decoupling. When Dina Boluarte was vacatedthe sun continued to strengthen and the country risk decreased. “It is not understood outside how politics and economics are going in different directions, but the trend is changing”he stressed.
For example, a consequence of the current situation is the limited duration of ministers, especially in key portfolios such as Interior and Economy. Specifically, there are incumbents with a low average permanence and 38% of the electorate that does not support any presidential candidate. Furthermore, with a bicameral Congress starting in July 2026, the Senate will have a lot of power. “That, depending on who wins, is going to make governance difficult”, he emphasized.
At another time, he was also clear regarding the role of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF).
“That the independence of the Banco Central (BCRP)which is the recurring question every time there are elections; the continuity of Julio Velarde, the board […]. And that a little more of the empowerment of the MEF be resumed. […] “We must know how to take care of the assets that we have developed, and face reforms that no one mentions, but that are absolutely fundamental to grow more and generate greater capacity for resilience in the future”he remarked.
How did the BCRP handle price controls and the accelerated expansion of monetary issuance? (Photo: Andina)
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What does Peru look like for investors?
With the internal context—economic and political—a little clearer, Caesar RavenCIO of SURA Investments, spoke about the external side, as well as the perspective of investors.
“[A nivel global] We are facing an environment of many changes, which have a series of particular characteristics: they are very difficult to predict; are not financial in nature; They have a binary result, they pass or they do not pass”, he remarked.
In this scenario, he commented that one of the main areas in which an investor and wealth manager must work is the ability to separate the noise of circumstances that impact the assets of interest.
“We are faced with a new reality, where the normal distribution, which helped us predict natural or market phenomena, continues to work, but all those events that are very close, that are relatively predictable, are not the ones that generate noise in my portfolio. On the contrary, they are all these others that we talked about: recurring change of the president, political uncertainty, the change in the paradigms of geopolitics,” explained.
When the peak of uncertainty is reviewed a year later, risk assets have performed positively. That does not mean – he specified – that, when uncertainty increases, there is nothing to do. “It is also prudent, depending on the risk profile as an investor, to adjust exposures that are too risky”, stood out.
“That is what we have been doing with the portfolios. We have been a little more moderate, we maintain our vision, but we have moderated the size of the exposures we have”he added.
The underlying message is clear for SURA Investments: investing with a long-term focus has clear advantages compared to reactions “hotter and more emotional”.
“Why do we have a more positive view on risk assets, although a little more moderate? Because, generally speaking, financial conditions in the United States and the developed world remain favorable, and because the growth and fundamental performance of companies continue to benefit from rates that have been low for a long time”he pointed out.
This also comes hand in hand with SURA Investments being more cautious with global fixed income, the other half of its positioning in the portfolios it manages in Peru and the rest of the region.
Although he highlighted the United States, he also had reservations. Although it is traditionally considered a refuge for investors, today it faces higher levels of political and geopolitical uncertainty.
However, this change in risk perception does not imply that the great power has lost its centrality in global portfolios. Its leadership in technological innovation and its ability to generate new industries continue to position it as a key player in the global economy.
Thus, Cuervo concluded: “What we have to do now is consider [a EE. UU.] as a very important asset that weighs heavily in portfolios, but we have to consider its own virtues of expected risk-adjusted return”.
This is how the SURA Investments event was held. (Photo: SURA Investments)
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Peru in the spotlight
Peru, for its part, has done its part in this turbulent period, while the elections add noise: “We have had positive results in the Peruvian stock market, we were there throughout 2025 and it was a beneficial decision for the performance of the portfolios, both in aggregates and those that are variable income; and, in the regional portfolios, Peru had been overweighted as one of the preferred investment destinations for Latin America. However, we have preferred to moderate ourselves because, in effect, when one looks at the case of both the sun and the stocks, the pre-election period makes some noise”.
Although Peru has shown resilience and is able to analyze the situation as an investing public, the reality is that there is an impact in the short term capable of increasing volatility. After the elections there is a relatively moderate performance, except in specific cases, such as very marked tendencies to the right or left. Faced with these types of binary results, Peru’s investment policy is to be a little more neutral.
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The investment horizon
Ivan Zaratesenior vice president of SURA Investments, focused on how investors should react to episodes of volatility. The main recommendation was to avoid impulsive decisions motivated by news or economic shocks.
“One can be scared by some of the news and sell everything one has in Peru; or, as happened in 2021, take all the money out of the country without understanding the tax effects that this entails. I bring up what happened in 2021 because it is something that many of us have on the surface. Our general recommendation is to have this internal knowledge of What is the investment profile that each of us has?be very sincere in that process, and based on the portfolios that each of us has built, be disciplined”he suggested.
Modern wealth management, in addition to requiring the integration of financial advice with tax planning, requires analyzing the agenda, the expert stressed.
“Where the market has reacted most positively is when it sees the election of a president that the market interprets as positive in terms of reforms that will promote growth and perhaps some deregulation. […] “The effect of the first announcements made by President Castillo had many implications on the performance of Peruvian assets.”.
He added: “If a president who has not been perceived as friendly to the market is elected and, in the end, has a more moderate stance, that will also surely become a short-term catalyst. Now, thinking about the long term, I think that within the most important thing I would mention two things: preserving the independence of the Banco Central (BCRP) and pay close attention to fiscal care. One of the reasons why Peru endures these attacks of global or internal uncertainty is because it has levels of leverage significantly lower than those of the typical emerging economy.”.
Is El Niño Costero a shock to consider for investment? Image of Piura, the region hardest hit by El Niño Costero in 2023. (Photo: Nilo Vilela)
