Over the past two or three years, the gym set-up has been changing: treadmills and cardio bikes have been giving way to weight training machines.
It’s the Ozempic effect.
“Before, basically half of people went to the gym to lose weight, and the other half wanted to gain muscle. Now, the majority, more than 75%, want to gain muscle,” Diogo Corona, the COO of Smartfit, told Brazil Journal.
The demand for gyms has been growing, a trend observed before the pandemic and which was renewed after it. But what drives users has been mainly the search for well-being and muscles – mainly due to the GLP-1 medications – Ozempic, Wegovy and Mounjaro – which make people eliminate fat but require weight training to avoid losing lean mass.
“When these drugs emerged, the thought was that they would take students out of the gym, but that is not what we are seeing in other countries, where the use of GLP-1 is more widespread,” said Diogo. “People lose weight with the medicine and go to the gym to gain muscle, or because they no longer feel intimidated. The gym is a place of body worship. People often say: ‘I need to lose weight first and then go to the gym’.”
Gyms in the US and UK are already offering memberships including GLP-1, with the aim of integrating the user experience, so that they do not have to separately look for a doctor, a nutritionist, a workout and a place to take their exams.
“At Smartfit, we are placing bioimpedance scales in all units,” said Diogo. According to him, the impact of GLP-1 has already reached Brazil, but it is not yet felt in other countries where Smartfit operates, such as Peru and Mexico. “These waves have timing different countries.”
Weight-loss pens are also becoming an investment thesis on the stock market – and are already a hot topic for analysts and investors.
The topic dominated conversations at a recent JP Morgan conference, leading the sales of the bank talking about an “Ozempic package” of shares that tend to benefit from the trend: RD Saúde, Pague Menos, Smartfit, Grupo SBF (Centauro) and Track&Field.
“This subject came up in 9 out of 10 conversation circles. For the short/medium term, the play obvious is RD Saúde,” a sales of the bank said in a message to customers.
The use of these medicines is expected to increase in Brazil from 2026 onwards, as in March Ozempic patent expires and cheaper options are expected to hit the market.
Anvisa is working on approving 20 new semaglutide and liraglutide pens, the active ingredients of these medicines.
BTG Pactual estimates that the LPG-1 market in Brazil will go from R$7 billion in sales this year to R$10 billion in 2026.
“The relevance of GLP-1 in drugstore results was already relevant and became even more so with the entry of Mounjaro this year,” said Luiz Guanais, the bank’s retail and consumer analyst.. “The growth in revenues of these companies should continue next year, because the entry of generics should bring an increase in volumes greater than the drop in price.”
If the impact on pharmaceutical companies and drugstores already appears, there is little data on other sectors.
“We don’t have data to see whether people are going to the gym more, buying activewear or healthier foods because of these medications,” Guanais said. “Brazilian companies are still trying to understand the size of the movement and what the side effects will be. Whether we will actually see healthier habits or whether it will be a temporary effect. It may still take a year or two.”
In the US, companies have been more vocal on the issue. In its most recent results, Wal-Mart attributed its pressured sales volumes to GLP-1, and also reported an increase in the sale of healthier foods.
Gilberto Tomazoni, the CEO of JBS, said that there is an increase in demand for protein due to the nutritional standard required by GLP-1 drugs.
“It is a phenomenon that is happening in all the markets in which we operate, and it is a change in consumption patterns,” Tomazoni said in an earnings call. “This has led to a global demand for protein consumption. It’s not one protein or another, it’s all proteins.”
According to a manager, Companies such as Ambev, McDonald’s, Burger King and M. Dias Branco – which sells biscuits – are likely to suffer more when generics increase the population’s access. “As long as it costs R$1,000, it doesn’t have much of an impact. The question is how long it will take to reach the middle class.”
The CEO of Assaí, Belmiro Gomes, recently said that alcohol “is a category that has been declining, and the advancement of weight-loss pens, in our view, will cause an even further decline in this category”.
Another manager believes it is risky to link a business or investment thesis to the behavior of a person who wants or needs to lose weight. “I believe that what will continue to sell is the medicine, which keeps people thinner.”
Ana Paula Guys