What are the current events on the stock exchanges?
- The leading American stock indexes closed yesterday with an increase, the Dow Jones rose 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 closed with a plus of 0.5 percent, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.4 percent.
- The Asian stock markets are showing an increase this morning, the Nikkei is up 0.85 percent, the Hang Seng is up 1.28 percent, while the CSI 300 is up 0.33 percent.
- The European stock markets can also open in a good mood, based on the future stock indices, the DAX can open with a gain of 0.26 percent, the CAC can rise by 0.4 percent, while the FTSE can rise by 0.15 percent.
- A mixed opening is expected on the American stock exchanges based on the current position of the future stock indices. The Dow Jones could go down by 0.11 percent, the S&P 500 could open up 0.32 percent, while the Nasdaq could go up by 0.63 percent.
What can be expected on the macro front?
From a Hungarian point of view, Tuesday will clearly be determined by the central bank’s interest rate decision. In December, the Monetary Council caused a minor surprise by starting to prepare the market for the fact that the 6.5% base interest rate may soon decrease, instead of the previous strict tone. From now on, decisions are made from meeting to meeting mainly depending on the inflation outlook. This could even mean an interest rate cut on Tuesday, but December’s 3.3% inflation and the global market tensions of recent weeks will almost certainly hold the MNB back from relaxing. The majority of experts expect that the decision-makers will wait for at least the January inflation data to see the extent of the repricing at the beginning of the year, and after that, if international risk taking is also favorable, then the first 25 basis point cut can come. At the same time, the foreign exchange market is expected to pay particular attention to the central bank’s communication after Tuesday’s meeting, whether they will make another hint, stronger than the one in December, about the upcoming relaxation.
What has happened on the stock markets so far?
- Among the leading American, Asian, European and regional stock indexes this year, the BUX index is at the top with a 14.1 percent shift, the CAC index is the driving force with a 0.2 percent fall.
- Among the domestic blue chips this year, Mol’s share performed best with a 30.5 percent increase, and Richter’s paper is at the bottom of the list with a 6.6 percent increase.
- Among the most important raw materials, the price of gold has risen by 18.0 percent since the beginning of the year.
| More important instruments | |||||||
| Exchange rate | 1 nap | 1 week | 1 month | This year | 1 year | 5 years | |
| US stock indices | |||||||
| Dow Jones | 49 412,4 | 0,6% | 0,1% | 1,4% | 2,8% | 11,2% | 59,7% |
| S&P 500 | 6 950,23 | 0,5% | 0,1% | 0,3% | 1,5% | 13,9% | 80,5% |
| Nasdaq | 25 713,21 | 0,4% | 0,7% | 0,3% | 1,8% | 18,1% | 90,6% |
| Asian stock indices | |||||||
| Nikkei | 52 885,25 | -1,8% | -1,3% | 4,2% | 5,1% | 32,4% | 85,3% |
| Hang Seng | 26 765,52 | 0,1% | 0,8% | 3,7% | 4,4% | 33,4% | -8,9% |
| CSI 300 | 4 706,96 | 0,1% | -0,6% | 1,1% | 1,7% | 22,8% | -14,6% |
| European stock indices | |||||||
| DAX | 24 933,08 | 0,1% | -0,1% | 2,4% | 1,8% | 16,5% | 79,7% |
| CAC | 8 131,15 | -0,1% | 0,2% | 0,3% | -0,2% | 2,6% | 47,2% |
| FTSE | 10 148,85 | 0,1% | -0,5% | 2,8% | 2,2% | 19,4% | 52,5% |
| FTSE MIB | 44 950,32 | 0,3% | -0,5% | 0,8% | 0,0% | 24,2% | 104,4% |
| IBEX | 17 680,5 | 0,8% | 0,1% | 3,0% | 2,2% | 47,6% | 122,0% |
| Regional stock indices | |||||||
| BUX | 126 663,8 | 1,3% | 3,7% | 14,1% | 14,1% | 48,7% | 191,1% |
| ATX | 5 525,07 | 0,1% | 1,5% | 5,3% | 3,7% | 43,7% | 87,3% |
| PX | 2 741,03 | 0,8% | 0,4% | 2,6% | 2,1% | 45,4% | 159,6% |
| Hungarian blue chips | |||||||
| OTP | 39 850 | 1,5% | 4,0% | 12,4% | 13,5% | 66,7% | 197,4% |
| Mol | 3 838 | 1,8% | 8,2% | 32,3% | 30,5% | 33,3% | 71,3% |
| Richter | 10 520 | 1,0% | 0,2% | 8,2% | 6,6% | 1,2% | 27,1% |
| Magyar Telekom | 1 946 | 0,6% | 1,9% | 8,1% | 8,6% | 39,0% | 386,5% |
| Raw materials | |||||||
| WTI | 60,46 | -0,4% | 1,8% | 6,8% | 5,6% | -19,4% | 15,0% |
| Brent | 65,61 | -0,4% | 2,2% | 5,3% | 7,8% | -16,4% | 17,2% |
| Ratio | 5 101,55 | 2,6% | 9,2% | 12,4% | 18,0% | 83,9% | 175,2% |
| Foreign currencies | |||||||
| EURHUF | 381,2500 | -0,2% | -1,1% | -1,6% | -0,7% | -6,6% | 6,1% |
| USDHUF | 320,4859 | -1,4% | -3,2% | -2,6% | -2,0% | -17,4% | 8,5% |
| GBPHUF | 439,4851 | -0,4% | -1,1% | -1,0% | -0,3% | -9,4% | 8,2% |
| EURUSD | 1,1896 | 1,2% | 2,2% | 1,0% | 1,3% | 13,1% | -2,2% |
| USDJPY | 158,1150 | 0,0% | 0,0% | 1,5% | 0,9% | 1,5% | 52,5% |
| GBPUSD | 1,3708 | 1,1% | 2,1% | 1,5% | 1,9% | 9,8% | -0,3% |
| Cryptocurrencies | |||||||
| Bitcoin | 88 247 | -1,4% | -4,7% | 1,1% | -0,5% | -15,8% | 171,5% |
| Government papers | |||||||
| 10-year US Treasury yield | 4,21 | -0,5% | -0,3% | 2,6% | 1,2% | -8,8% | 305,2% |
| 10-year German government bond yield | 2,83 | -1,2% | 1,1% | -0,1% | -1,2% | 11,2% | -602,5% |
| 10-year Hungarian government bond yield | 6,63 | -1,0% | -3,1% | -3,6% | -3,5% | -2,4% | 189,5% |
| Source: Refinitiv, Portfolio | |||||||
Cover image source: Antonio Ciufo
The cover image is an illustration. Cover image source: Getty Images
