Bitcoin is preparing for the most important event of the month with very encouraging data!
While Bitcoin enjoys a relatively quiet session, awaiting the long-awaited FOMC on December 10th, some particularly positive data arrives on the markets, especially regarding the trading markets of the Binance exchange. There are in fact some issues that deserve attention, starting from the trend of flussi on-chain up to the composition of the orders within the order book.
A question which in themselves certainly cannot guarantee a recovery of the cryptocurrency, but which are very helpful in framing the current scenario and which in potentially more favorable macro conditions, could take on a decidedly more bullish weight. Let’s see better what it is and how the market is reacting to this very important moment for future prices in the medium term.
Bitcoin: unusually low inflows on Binance
Let’s start from this concept: in general when there are a lot of inflows on an exchange (deposits) in BTCit means that those coins are probably destined to be sold for fiat or stablecoin, and is therefore a dato bearish. However, when outflows (withdrawals) are recorded it means that those coins have just been purchased and transferred elsewhere to cold wallets for security reasons.
That’s exactly the point the opposite for stablecoin flows (inflow bullish, outflow bearish), but in this case we are only interested in movements in Bitcoin. From CryptoQuant’s on-chain data it emerges that the Average 30-day BTC inflows have been quite low in recent monthsdespite the strong correction from the highs. In particular, between September and October the maximum value reached 37.8 million BTC.
Instead, in the vicinity of the local tops of March/April 2024 e di November/December 2024The inflows were many moreof 208.4 million BTC and 143.6 million BTC, respectively. This makes us think that the latest period of weakness was dictated more by speculative exasperation rather than by a real capitulation. And at the same time it suggests to us that perhaps the top of this last bullish leg, which started in May 2025, has yet to arrive.
Bid/ask ratio returns in favor of the bulls
Another positive data for Bitcoin, which shows a certain reaction from demand, comes from relationship between bid and ask in the market orderbook spot on Binance. This metric compares the quantity of buy and sell limit orders within a certain depth of the spot price, and serves as an indication of the possible balance or imbalance between the two components.
Considering a 0%-20% range within which to calculate the depth, we note that in recent days the ratio has returned positive after several months of negative imbalance in favor of the ask (sale) side. In fact, we have now risen to a score of 0.31, the highest value since April since the bottom of April 2025.
Normally these situations highlight a return of buyer interest to seek speculative exposure, and they happen just when prices reach attractive discounted levels. It is a condition of good omenwhich we will however have to contextualise with what will be the next macroeconomic liquidity stimuli, which could enormously influence the level of risk appetite among the various participants.
Institutional interest in Bitcoin increases
We would like to point out that in this complex period to analyze, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)reference market for institutions on Bitcoinrecord a level of open interest higher than that of Binanceaccording to Coinglass data. Even on a daily basis, there is a stronger increase in the metric compared to the crypto-native platform.
This explains a little why retail users are probably not taking advantage of the moment to make transactions much, while white-collar workers on Wall Street are more inclined to take positions.
However, it must also be explained that the CME’s open interest has been decreasing overall since December 2024, when it exceeded 200,000 BTC in contract value, while it is now at 124,000 BTC. Instead, on Binance the data increased visibly in 2025 until it reached a new high in October, but then fell more quickly than on the CME.
Perhaps now, after a somewhat uncertain year, the institutions have returned to being serious, but it is still early to draw conclusions.
