A series of rain events is expected to keep the tri-state damp all day Thursday, but some storms that develop late in the day could turn severe, potentially triggering an isolated tornado or flash flooding.
According to the National Weather Service in New York, there’s an estimated 2 percent to 4 percent risk of a tornado across virtually the entire region, excepting parts of Long Island.
That risk comes later in the day, though. First, expect a bout of late-morning rain, a rumble of thunder in mid-afternoon ahead of the severe potential later in the evening.
The overall risk for severe weather remains relatively low, a 1 on a scale of 0 to 5.
The bulk of the heavy rain and thunderstorms will impact areas away from the coast – the mountains, Hudson Valley, and inland New England – and will drift through during the day and evening hours. Along the coast, storms will be more likely in the evening.
Stay abreast of any weather-related alerts in your neighborhood here.
Damaging straight-line winds are the most likely threat, and any would happen Thursday evening, when we anticipate some of the strongest storm cells to develop. Rotation development is possible, too, hence the slight tornado risk.
Rain totals will vary widely – anywhere from under ½ inch to as much as 3 inches or more in isolated places. The heaviest rain will most likely occur well north of the metro area.
Pockets of heavy rain may cause isolated flooding, so be aware on the roads. If you find yourself in one of these downpours, slow down and do not drive through water-covered stretches of road, should you encounter one.
The rain clears by early Friday, potentially after some light lingering showers, in time for the first Ryder Cup tee time, it looks like. Clouds linger a bit, along with the early autumn warmth.
For the weekend: a stalled front to our south swings back our way, keeping a chance for showers in through the weekend, especially south of the city. At the very least, we’ll see mostly cloudy skies.
Beyond the weekend, it starts to look and feel more like October with an end-of-the-week cooldown.
Stay ahead of any approaching rain using our interactive radar below.
