Oral weight-loss drugs could account for a third or more of the total GLP-1 market by 2030, a larger share than the company originally expected, a senior Novo Nordisk executive said on Monday.
“In our initial assumption, injectable drugs dominated the market and tablets played a smaller role,” Ludovic Helfgott, executive vice president of product and portfolio strategy at Novo Nordisk, told Reuters on the sidelines of the JP Morgan Healthcare conference.
“We believe the tablet could actually be up to a third or more of that market overall as we move forward,” he added.
Helfgott said Novo’s updated perspective reflects a better understanding of patient behavior in an increasingly consumer-driven obesity market where many patients pay out-of-pocket.
The company believes the newly launched oral version of Wegovy can expand treatment to previously underrepresented groups in GLP-1 use, including men and younger patients.
He said some potential users of the new tablet, launched last week, do not fully recognize obesity as a disease or are in “denial”. An oral option opens up “population categories” that are harder to reach with injections.
The reassessment comes as analysts debate the long-term role of oral GLP-1 drugs.
Analysts at TD Cowen estimated last year that GLP-1 tablets will account for a mid-double-digit percentage of the global obesity drug market by 2030,
which could reach a value of $150 billion by then.
Late last year, Novo conducted patient segmentation and targeting exercises, using artificial intelligence and other tools to classify potential new users of GLP-1 into six or seven behavioral groups, according to Helfgott.
This work helps the pharmaceutical company understand what motivates people to start taking a weight loss drug.
(Reporting by Maggie Fick and Mrinalika Roy; Editing by Anil D’Silva)
