By JOSH DUBOW
As the NFL passes the midway point of the season, there are a few trends that have begun to develop.
Scoring has increased in part thanks to some special teams rule changes and more aggressiveness on fourth downs, offenses are getting bigger with more plays than ever through an extra lineman or tight end, and no standout teams have emerged.
For just the fourth time since the merger, every team in the NFL has at least two losses nine weeks into the season. No team has overwhelmingly surpassed the competition.
The only other years without teams with one or fewer losses before Week 10 were 1979, 1981 and 2010.
The change is perhaps most evident with the Kansas City Chiefs, who remain the favorites for the Super Bowl according to BetMGM, despite a 5-4 record that would currently leave them out of the playoff picture. The Chiefs were undefeated at this point last season as they sought their unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title.
The three teams with the best records — Indianapolis, Denver and New England — have not won playoff games in the last six seasons. Pittsburgh, the other division leader in the American Conference, has not won a playoff game since 2016.
The AL could have four new division winners after two consecutive years in which Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston and Kansas City have finished in first place.
The National has a little more stability. The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles currently hold first place and hold a more than three-game lead in the Eastern Division, with a chance to become the first repeat champion in that area since they did so from 2001 to 2004.
There have also been more dramatic endings this season. Thirty-five games have been decided by points scored in the last two minutes of regulation or overtime, tying 2021 for the most so far in nine weeks.
Biggest offensives
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A big trend so far this season is that offenses are getting bigger by using extra linemen and more tight ends at an increasingly higher rate.
Teams have run 457 plays with at least one extra offensive lineman, nearly double the number in the first nine weeks of 2023. Adding plays with at least one extra tight end, the league has had the most nine-week actions with an extra lineman or tight end since 2006, the year Sportradar records go back to.
Big bodies aren’t just for running more. Teams pass on more than 25% of plays with an extra lineman or tight end and post a passer rating of 101.2, which is more than ten points higher than plays with at least three receivers on the field.
New kickoff rule has big impact
The first year of the so-called “dynamic kickoff” did not produce the results the NFL initially wanted, with only a slight increase in returns, from a record low of 21.8% in 2023 to 32.8% last season.
Moving the touchback spot from the 30-yard line to the 35 this season has led to a major change. The return rate has reached 79% so far this campaign, the highest in 17 years.
There have only been two kickoff returns for touchdowns, but there have been 42 returns of at least 40 yards, the most in nine weeks since there were 53 at this point in 2012.
The changes have also had a positive impact on the score. The average starting position after kickoffs is the 30.2-yard line, the best for offenses since at least 2000.
There is an increase of more than two points per game compared to this time last season.
K balls lead to long distance kicks
The kickoff changes aren’t the only new rules that have had a big impact so far this season. The league also made changes to the way teams can prepare balls used for kicking.
Preparation can take place before game day for the first time since the 1990s.
Worn-out balls are traveling farther. Many kickers estimate that they have a few extra yards on their kicks.
That has led to a new record, for the longest field goal. Jacksonville’s Cam Little hit a 68-yard field goal Sunday against Las Vegas, breaking the previous mark of 66 held by Justin Tucker.
There has already been another NFL record seven field goals made from at least 60 yards, including two by Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey, who missed his own 68-yard attempt, wide left, on Monday night against Arizona.
The 39 goals scored from at least 55 yards are already the fourth most for any full season and one more than there were in a 13-year period from 1994 to 2006.
While long kicks are at a record pace, short kicks are becoming rarer in part thanks to improved field position from initial punts. The 250 field goal attempts from less than 40 yards are the fewest in nine weeks since 1998.
Fourth Chance Revolution
Better average starting field position and more coaches willing to be aggressive have the league on a record pace for fourth-down attempts.
Even traditionally more conservative coaches like Kansas City’s Andy Reid and San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan have joined the trend. The Chiefs have tried 11 times in the first half, the most in Reid’s 13 seasons.
The 49ers tried it on their first series Sunday against the New York Giants, marking the first time Shanahan went for a fourth-down play in the first quarter in their own territory.
The 419 fourth-down attempts are the most in nine weeks, with 210 coming in the first three quarters before desperation kicks in.
The success rate is also at a record pace. Teams convert on 59.7% of attempts for the highest rate since at least 2000, including 72.6% on fourth-and-one.
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