New Zealand Could Become a “Net Exporter” of Population in the Near Future

New Zealand stands on the brink of potentially exporting more people than it imports, a scenario that could reshape its economic landscape. Economists warning of this potential shift highlight that current trends might lead to more New Zealanders and migrants leaving the country than arriving, challenging sustained economic growth.

Recent Migration Data Indicates a Critical Turn

In November, although a net migration gain was recorded at 2,200 individuals, this figure marks a significant drop from 7,100 a year earlier. Year-to-date figures through November show arrivals decreased by 32 percent, while departures surged by 28 percent.

This trend could quickly reverse, according to experts. Craig Renney, policy director at the Council of Trade Unions, cautions that if migration inflows continue to decline and outflows rise, New Zealand might soon report a net negative migration statistic.

The Uneven Impact of Population Shifts

Renney points out that migration trends exacerbate regional disparities. While major cities like Auckland and Christchurch attract new residents, smaller towns such as Palmerston North and Ashburston lose more inhabitants.

The economic strain on smaller communities unable to attract the same number of migrants can be significant. Ensuring economic growth in these areas will become increasingly challenging if this trend continues. Public services, such as healthcare and education, may also suffer.

Expert Opinions Highlight the Severity of the Issue

Brad Olsen, CEO of Infometrics, agrees with Renney’s concerns. Olsen notes that over the last six months, the monthly net migration has averaged around 2,300 people. This figure is substantially lower compared to the monthly averages of over 10,000 in 2023, when migration was robust.

Olsen emphasizes that both domestic and international migration is experiencing a downturn. Domestic migrants are seeking opportunities elsewhere, while fewer international workers choose to relocate to New Zealand due to limited job openings.

Infometrics previously warned that annual net migration could turn negative in 2026/27, aligning with a prediction of potential net outflows towards the end of 2025.

Migrations’ Impact on Public Services

Renney notes that services like medical care and education heavily rely on migration influxes. The potential for a negative migration balance raises serious concerns about the sustainability and quality of these services, potentially leading to shortages and reduced quality.

The Role of Economic Indicators

Michael Jones, BNZ chief economist, acknowledges the possibility of migration turning negative but suggests it is not their primary forecast. Jones notes that current monthly net migration numbers are only slightly above zero.

He comments that while the previous population surge temporarily bolstered the economy, long-term economic indicators, such as GDP per capita, show underlying fragility.

Jones further explains that the recent migration boom may not have significantly boosted demand as anticipated. Instead, it has put pressure on the supply side, particularly affecting the labor market.

“We could see net migration figures drop off as winter approaches,” Jones adds, suggesting a seasonal pattern where more people reconsider their living situation.

Conclusion: Planning for Future Population Trends

The financial and societal implications of New Zealand becoming a net exporter of population are profound. If this scenario unfolds, it could severely affect regional economies, strain public services, and lead to a degradation of quality of life for New Zealanders.

Proactive measures may be necessary to address this potential shift. This could include policy adjustments to enhance local job markets, improve quality of life, and encourage retention of residents.

It is crucial for policymakers and the public to monitor migration trends closely and prepare for possible changes that could reshape New Zealand’s demographic landscape.

Your Thoughts Matter

Do you agree with these experts? How do you think New Zealand should respond to the possibility of a decline in net migration? Share your thoughts in the comments below!