NASA Downgrades Asteroid 2024 YR4 Collision Risk to 0.28%

The recent news from NASA brings a sigh of relief to many as the space agency has downgraded the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032. Initial fears were raised when the probability of impact was as high as 1.5%, but the latest data shows a much lower risk of 0.28%. This decrease in probability is a result of new observations gathered over the past few days.

According to NASA’s official Twitter handle, “New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues.” This reassessment aligns with the scientific method and the ongoing efforts of astronomers to refine impact predictions.

New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues. https://t.co/LuRwg1eaCv https://t.co/O4NnL4PaTf

— NASA (@NASA) February 20, 2025

Asteroid 2024 YR4: Details and Current Status

NASA has a dedicated webpage providing comprehensive information about asteroid 2024 YR4, a near-Earth asteroid estimated to be between 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in size. Initially, the asteroid was predicted to have a 1-in-32 chance of hitting Earth on December 22, 2032, with even higher odds before that warning was issued.

India, along with several other countries, was placed in the risk zone, prompting global concern. Dubbed the ‘City Destroyer’ due to its size and potential for close approach to Earth, the asteroid is closely monitored by agencies like NASA and the European Space Agency.

When Will the Likelihood of Impact Drop to Zero?

NASA maintains that while the probability of impact is low, it is expected to decrease further as more observational data becomes available. As the asteroid travels further from Earth, it will become too faint to detect with current technology. Further updates will be possible when 2024 YR4 approaches Earth again in 2028.

“The impact probability for this asteroid will continue to be reassessed as astronomers continue to track it. By April 2025, the object will be so far away that it will become too faint to be detected by Earth-based telescopes. Further updates will not be possible until 2028 when 2024 YR4 approaches Earth again and becomes bright enough to be detected,” states NASA.

Potential Damage from an Asteroid Impact

The damage caused by an asteroid impact varies depending on the asteroid’s size and composition. For asteroid 2024 YR4, an airburst scenario is the most likely outcome given its estimated dimensions. Here are possible scenarios based on the asteroid’s size:

Scenario 1: If the asteroid enters the atmosphere over the ocean, it is unlikely to generate significant tsunamis.

Scenario 2: Over a populated area, a smaller asteroid (130 to 200 feet or 40 to 60 meters) could cause minor structural damage and shatter windows in a city.

Scenario 3: A larger asteroid (300 feet or 90 meters) could potentially collapse residential structures and damage a wider area.

Scenario 4: An impact by a kilometer-wide asteroid would have catastrophic global consequences, threatening the survival of human civilization.

Is Earth Vulnerable to Asteroid Impacts?

While Earth is not entirely safe from asteroid impacts, NASA has detected and tracked more than 95% of the largest potential threats. According to Dr. James Green, NASA’s former chief scientist, there are likely smaller asteroids yet to be discovered that could pose an impact danger.

NASA, along with the global planetary defense community, is dedicated to identifying and monitoring these bodies. With continuous research and tracking efforts, scientists aim to mitigate the risks posed by asteroids.

“Asteroids don’t care about international boundaries. It does not matter where the asteroid impacts, it affects the entire humanity,” researchers stress. “The day is coming when Earth will get impacted…The dinosaurs went extinct because they did not have a space program. However, we humans do have one.”

Could We Deflect Asteroid 2024 YR4?

While the possibility of an impact by asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently low, NASA considers a kinetic impactor, such as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, as a potential deflection method. The feasibility of deflection depends on the asteroid’s size, physical properties, orbit, and detection timeline.

For asteroid 2024 YR4, NASA is in the data collection phase. With the low probability of impact expected to decrease further with additional observations, speculation on deflection techniques is premature.

“For 2024 YR4, we are still in the information gathering stage. The likelihood of an Earth impact is still very low and will likely decrease as we gain more observations, so it is premature to speculate on potential deflection techniques,” NASA declares.