According to the 3rd long -term fiscal outlook (2025-2065) submitted by the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, the national debt ratio, which is 49.1%of the GDP this year, will soar up to 156.3%(most neutral standard scenario) by 2065. 40 years later, Narat debt is 1.5 times more than all added value produced in Korea. Before it is late, the binding fiscal rules should be enacted so that debts do not increase indiscriminately.
Earlier, the ministry predicted that the national debt ratio to GDP would surpass 50%for the first time next year, up to 58.0%in 2029. According to the long -term fiscal outlook, the ratio is 71.5%in 2035, followed by 97.4%in 2045 and 126.3%in 2055. It is advisable to manage national debt at less than 60% of the government’s financial rules in the last government.
The ministry said, “We have been mechanically estimated on the premise that the current system and policy will be maintained for the next 40 years.” It is increasingly difficult to reduce financial support for welfare in the current situation where basic pensions are expanded and social insurance spending is increasing due to low birth and aging. If this is the case, it is likely that the depressed scenario that the tax revenue will be caught in a structural low growth trend and eventually the national finances will eventually face a crisis. In fact, major public pensions and social insurance, such as national pensions and health insurance, are feared to be depleted sequentially within 40 years. In March, the National Pension Reform Plan, which passed the National Assembly, should now be in a hurry to reform the overall pension, including basic, retirement, literary, and personal pensions.
Even in this situation, the government insists on expansion finances. The virtuous cycle was raised to grow the economy by growing the economy with aggressive financial management, expanding the tax base and establishing sustainable finances. Sluggish growth can be taken as a foothold for structural reforms, including bold deregulation. The government has invested 6 trillion won for the next five years with a growth strategy to make a leap forward with the ‘Physical Artificial Intelligence (AI) Leading State’ using excellent manufacturing capabilities data, but it is doubtful whether this economic constitution innovation is possible if it is delayed with the rigidity and double structure of our labor market. In order to foster talented people who will lead the major industry in major industries, education must be supported by the national reform of the national remodeling level.
[ⓒ 세계일보 & Segye.com, 무단전재 및 재배포 금지]
