Riyadh Talks focus on Ceasefire and Territorial Disputes

Amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, high-level discussions between the United States and Russia are underway in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia [[1]], [[2]]. These negotiations, which follow a meeting between Ukrainian and American delegations, center on critical issues such as infrastructure security, maritime safety, and the potential for a extensive ceasefire [[1]].

The closed-door discussions between the US and Russia reportedly spanned over 12 hours,with breaks,and expectations are high for a joint statement to be released later today [[2]].

Russia’s Territorial demands and Strategic calculations

Sources familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking suggest that Russia is seeking the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian armed forces from the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhya, and Kherson regions. These regions have been a focal point of the conflict, and their control is seen as vital to Moscow’s political objectives.

There is no mechanism in the Constitution for the exit of regions from Russia. We need the whole Zaporizhzhya and the entire Kherson region.

The potential loss of these territories would represent a meaningful political setback for President Putin, according to these sources. Russia may also consider occupying parts of the Dnipropetrovsk or Sumy regions as leverage for a potential exchange involving Kherson and Zaporozhye.

A key concern for Russia is avoiding a costly and protracted military campaign to seize and hold these territories. Specifically,Russian strategists are hoping to circumvent the need to force the Dnieper River and storm Kherson,actions that could result in substantial casualties.

We hope to find an option in which you do not have to force the Dnieper and storm Kherson. I really hope that it will not reach. It will mean thousands of losses for us.

Trump’s Role and Potential Influence

Moscow is reportedly hoping that US President Donald Trump will exert pressure on Ukraine to concede territory. While it is acknowledged that trump is unlikely to “surrender” all of Ukraine, there is an expectation that he may be less concerned about the precise demarcation of the final border.

as far as I understand, Trump wants to see a modern, well -armed, pro -Western ukraine.He cannot just give Ukraine entirely. But where exactly the border will be held – this is not so critically important for him.

Alternatively, Russia fears that Trump might advocate for prolonged negotiations while Russia attempts to seize more territory, a scenario considered less favorable due to the potential for increased military challenges.

The broader Context of the Ukraine War

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine represents the deadliest war on European soil in over seven decades [[3]]. The war has resulted in a devastating humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and widespread destruction of infrastructure.The economic consequences have also been severe, impacting global markets and supply chains.