The conflict initiated by American and Israeli strikes against Iran and its repercussions in the Middle East should cause oil prices to soar when the market opens on the night of Sunday to Monday and could shake the world economy if it continues.
The oil market opens at 11:00 p.m. GMT on Sunday and analysts expect a sharp rise in prices.
“I expect oil prices to move between $85 and $90” on Monday, said Amena Bakr, OPEC+ and Middle East specialist at Kpler.
This would be a significant jump in the price of a barrel of Brent, the international benchmark for black gold, which had nevertheless gradually integrated a geopolitical risk premium to appear at more than 72 dollars on Friday. Far from the 61 dollars at the start of the year.
With the regional conflagration, maritime transport via the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20% of global oil consumption passes, is compromised.
The strait is not completely closed (a few Chinese and Iranian ships have passed through it, according to Kpler) but it is almost as if it were. The price of insurance becomes prohibitive in this context, explains Ms. Bakr, and the main shipping companies have already confirmed that they are suspending the passage of their fleet through this maritime passage.
– Trump’s “Achilles heel” –
“Alternative infrastructure in the Middle East can be used to bypass flows passing through the strait, but the net impact remains an effective loss of 8 to 10 million barrels of crude oil supply,” said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, in a note the day before.
In theory, oil-importing countries have reserves, with OECD members having to maintain 90 days of oil stocks, but prices above $100 are not excluded.
If the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues, “regardless of the quantity of oil in strategic reserves”, the loss of volumes exported via this crucial passage “is simply too significant”, underlines Ms Bakr.
Asked by Fox News about possible concerns about rising prices, the US president replied “I’m not worried about anything (…) if we hadn’t done that, they would have had a nuclear weapon in less than two weeks”.
However, “Trump’s Achilles heel is high oil prices,” assures Michelle Brouhard, also an analyst at Kpler.
According to her, Iran would therefore seek to keep crude prices high to make Donald Trump bend, who promised his electorate low prices, while the United States is already preparing the campaign for the mid-term election at the end of the year.
-“Deleterious impact on growth”-
Gas prices are also expected to soar on Monday, with Qatar being a key exporter of liquefied natural gas, reinforcing inflationary risks.
Indeed, the rise in hydrocarbon prices is bad news for the economy. The last time crude prices exceeded $100 was at the start of the war in Ukraine. The price of gas had also exploded, which had largely contributed to a prolonged cycle of price increases.
Increase in pump prices, energy prices, maritime transport costs, loss of turnover for air transport, the conflict “can have a deleterious impact on growth”, explains to AFP, Eric Dor, professor at the IESEG School of Management.
“If it’s 3 days, it’s not serious, but if it’s over time, then, yes, it will be an additional recessive effect,” he summarizes.
On the stock market, certain sectors could be winners on Monday, such as defense, but the economist rather expects “drops” in prices, notably in “the air transport sector, the maritime transport sector undoubtedly, tourism”.
