Although Mexico has notably improved cholesterol control and statin use, the average risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) increased between 2016 and 2023, according to a study presented at ACC Latin America 2025. CVD continues to be the main cause of death in the country, with a high economic and social cost. The most influential factors, high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, smoking and adverse socioeconomic conditions, continue to affect millions of people, especially in urban areas with less access to preventive services.
The analysis, led by Dr. César Daniel Paz-Cabrera of the National Institute of Public Health, used risk models developed specifically for Latin America, allowing for more accurate prediction of local cardiovascular burden. “Decisions about risk models should be based on the most accurate tools available for each population,” explained the researcher.
What models were used to estimate cardiovascular risk in Mexico?
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The study compared two prediction tools, Globorisk-LAC and the World Health Organization (WHO) model. Both calculate the 10-year risk of suffering coronary heart disease or stroke, but they differ in their population origin and regional sensitivity.
Globorisk-LAC, built from data from nine cohorts in six Latin American countries, offers specific risk tables for 31 countries, including Mexico. In contrast, the WHO model relies on data from high-income regions, which may limit its local accuracy.
The results were consistent: the average risk of CVD increased in all models. Globorisk-LAC estimated risks of 9.5% (laboratory) and 9.2% (office), while the WHO reported a more modest increase of 4.4%. According to Paz, the global model tends to underestimate the real risk because the international coefficients do not reflect the high Mexican rates of obesity and diabetes at younger ages.
Improvement in metabolic control, but with deficiencies in secondary prevention
The study showed notable advances in the control of metabolic factors. Statin use among eligible individuals increased from 1% in 2016 to 59% in 2023, reflecting greater adherence to treatment guidelines.
According to ENSANUT 2023, LDL (“bad”) cholesterol showed better control in the low, moderate and high risk groups, but worsened in the very high risk group, which concentrates the most serious cases. In turn, glycemic control reached 78.6% and blood pressure control reached 46.5%.
These figures reveal progress in preventive care, although deficiencies persist in the continuity of treatment. “It is essential to guarantee efficient mechanisms for the acquisition of medicines and medical supplies to avoid therapeutic interruptions and future complications”Paz emphasized.
What public policies have contributed to the control of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases?
Mexico has implemented a series of pioneering regulatory interventions with positive results in cardiovascular health. Among the most notable are taxes on sugary drinks, front warning labels, the elimination of industrial trans fatty acids and the prohibition of the sale of ultra-processed foods in schools.
These policies have demonstrated an impact on reducing the consumption of harmful products and raising social awareness about healthy habits. Nevertheless, Specialists warn that its effectiveness depends on its sustained application and reinforcement from primary care.
The Ministry of Health and the General Health Council have recently approved national evidence-based guidelines for the prevention and treatment of hypertension, type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome and obesity, with the aim of integrating cardiovascular prevention into the primary care model.
Structural challenges for the Mexican health system
The increase in cardiovascular risk, even with better clinical indicators, reflects the influence of social determinants and urban living patterns that medical interventions alone cannot reverse.
The system faces the challenge of strengthening early detection, improving therapeutic adherence and ensuring equitable access to medications and medical follow-up. Furthermore, the incorporation of local predictive models in public policy decisions can optimize the allocation of resources and focus interventions on vulnerable groups.
The study also highlights the importance of international cooperation. Organizations such as PAHO and the IDB can contribute to the development of regional risk assessment tools, adapted to the demographic and cultural characteristics of Latin America.
Meanwhile, the increased risk of cardiovascular diseases in Mexico, despite clinical and regulatory advances, highlights the need for comprehensive and contextualized prevention.
Beyond cholesterol and glycemia control, the national strategy must incorporate multisectoral policies that address social inequality, environmental pollution and eating habits. The consolidation of a culture of preventive health, together with robust surveillance and health education systems, will be key to reversing the upward trend.
