It is hard to go back to being the locomotive of Europe without being able to count on the low-cost gas from Russia and the immense Chinese market to which cars and industrial machinery can be exported.
She knows it well Germaniawhich has been dealing with a worrying situation for some years now structural economic crisis clearly visible in its stagnant GDP growth (+0.2% in 2025, after a contraction in 2023-2024).
Friedrich Merz will fly in China precisely to try to limit the damage, albeit in a very delicate diplomatic context. The reason is simple: in his government there are those who think that Vladimir Putin would not be able to carry on the war in Ukraine without Beijing’s help, and those who instead point out with annoyance the increase, in Germany, in Chinese cyber attacks and acts of espionage attributed to actors close to the Dragon.
It is therefore no coincidence that it took Merz about ten months to visit Berlin’s main trading partner, a delay that certainly did not go unnoticed beyond the Wall, but which at the same time highlights the complicated position of the German Chancellor. Unable to close relations with China as the hawks would like Federal Government and forced, by the Teutonic business world, to safeguard national interests.
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Merz in China: a delicate mission
Merz is expected to be welcomed to Beijing by Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang before meeting Xi Jinping for interviews and a subsequent dinner. Based on what emerged, the German Chancellor’s program includes stops at the Forbidden City and the company Unitree Roboticsto the local office of Mercedes-Benz and to that of the turbine manufacturer Siemens Energy. A stopover is also planned Hangzhoua city home to several technology start-ups.
But what will Merz and Xi talk about? Considering that the European guest will be accompanied by a thirty executives and CEOs of German companies, everything or almost everything will revolve around theeconomy.
The numbers speak for themselves: according to official data from Berlin, in 2025 bilateral trade between Germany and China reached 253 billion euroswith an increase of approximately 2.7% compared to the previous year. The People’s Republic of China once again ranked as the number one trading partner of Europe’s former locomotive, even though it imbalance between the parties has expanded.
German imports from China have in fact reached quota 171.2 billionwhile exports stood at 81.8 billion (-9.3% on an annual basis, the lowest level in the last ten years).
The Berlin strategy
Germany must understand how redefine relationships with China: distance oneself from the Dragon, displeasing a large portion of German entrepreneurs still convinced that the market beyond the Wall is within their reach, or increase integration with Beijing by taking some risks?
What is certain is that giants such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have issued worrying warnings about falling profits, due to pressure on sales, both in China and in other countries. By the way: German vehicle exports to the Asian giant have collapsed by two-thirds since 2022.
As German media have highlighted, the rivalry between the two states has spread from the automotive industry to other sectors. According to theEconomistMerz will raise these topics to Xi and then focus on “risk reduction” of Germany’s dependence on China: Berlin considers the relationship with Beijing excessively unbalanced.
Exports of cars and other German products to China, as mentioned, have collapsed, while growing imports by Chinese companies – subjected to price pressure at home – have brought the trade deficit to 90 billion euros, or to a dizzying 2% of German GDP. In short, reversing this dangerous trend will be Merz’s first objective.
