Is it better to take risks alone or share your luck? With Mega da Virada promising R$1 billion, a group from Passo Fundoin the North of Rio Grande do Sul, decided to bet big: he saved R0,000 to enter the game with thousands of combinations.
The strategy is bold, but does the jackpot really make a difference compared to a simple bet of R$6?
According to Fernando Sabino, professor of Statistics and Economics at UFRGS, the logic behind the pool is simple: the more combinations, the greater the probability.
— The probability of success in a conventional game with six numbers is one chance in less than 50 million. So, there’s only one way to increase your chance: it’s to play a greater number of combinations — he explains.
The excitement of the group from the city of Rio Grande do Sul is evident. For them, the strategy of investing heavily in multiple combinations is almost a guarantee of some return. Patrícia Alosivi, lawyer and member of the pool, sums up the optimism:
— It is 99% certain that we will win a quadra! And starting from a perfect match, there are only two numbers left for us to win the Mega. This is our big move! — observes Patrícia.
Bolão increases the chance, but does not guarantee a prize
Table of Contents
For the expert, dividing the amount between several people is a smart way to participate.
— The jackpot is a smart way to participate, because it increases the chance of success and the amount paid is lower. So, the cost of investment is lower, at the same time that the chances of success increase, because people play with greater combinations — he says.
Still, he issues a warning: even with a high value, there is no guarantee:
— The Lottery is completely random. It’s totally luck. So, there’s no point playing around with birthdays, sequences of lucky numbers, the chance is the same of any number coming up in the ballot box — he observes.
Entertainment, not investment
Sabino remembers that Mega da Virada should be seen as funnot as a financial investment.
— It’s entertainment, it’s not an investment. So, people should be careful and spend what they can afford — he advises.
More numbers, more chances and more cost
To try to improve the odds, some groups opted for more robust bets. In a pool formed by neighbors, the choice was to play with 12 numbers. According to participants, the chance goes from one in 50 million to around one in 54 thousand.
Commercial manager Alex Pereira highlights that the pool makes a type of game viable that would not be viable individually:
— A game of 12 tens costs around R$5,500. For just one bettor, it is unfeasible. Dividing it between 30 people, as in our case, increases the chance and makes it possible to play — he says.
The bet value grows quickly depending on the number of tens chosen:
- A simple bet, with six numbers, costs R$6
- With seven numbers, the value rises to R$42
- A bet with 20 numbers can reach R$232 thousand
Until when can I play?
Bets have been open since November 1st, and can be done until 8pm on December 31st. The draw will also be held on the 31st, at 10pm.
According to the institution, the prize does not accumulate. If there are no winners in the main range, with all six numbers correct, the prize will be divided between the winners in the second range (five numbers), and so on, according to the rules of the special contest.
The Mega da Virada draw will be held on December 31st and a single bet, with six numbers, costs R$6.