He Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) ratified that Peruvian economy It would close 2025 with a growth rate of 3.5%, according to the multiannual macroeconomic frame (MMM) 2026-2029, published on the morning of this August 28.
The expectation is maintained with respect to the Macroeconomic Projections Update Report (IAPM) published in April. As recalled, in that month, the projection of 4% to 3.5% was reviewed by the global risk.
In addition, by 2026, MEF estimates indicate that economic activity would achieve a growth of 3.2%.
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How is the GDP and what is expected?
After a first semester with a growth of 3.4% driven by the greater dynamism of the Internal demandthe MEF projects a greater advance in the second half of the year.
“In the coming months, economic activity will remain dynamic, which is reflected in the good results of the advanced indicators of economic activity,” indicated the MMM.
During this second semester and even throughout 2026, economic activity is expected to remain “dynamic, promoted by the strengthening of domestic demand and the resilience of the primary offer
In July alone, they indicate, there was an increase of 1.6% in the production of electricity and an advance of 18.1% in the importation of capital goods – indicator associated with investment – in FOB values.
Likewise, a greater Private expenseassociated with the good performance of the private mining investmentwhich would add US $ 5,800 million on average between 2025 and 2026, also for an advance in non -mining investment.
What could reduce this expectation?
The MEF warns that, despite positive projections, economic activity is exposed to various risk factors that could affect them.
One of the main identified risks is the Social conflict e citizen insecurity.
This situation could deteriorate the business climate, generate interruptions in the logistics chain and modify investment and consumption decisions.
It also indicates that the political instability In a pre -election context It could generate uncertainty and postpone key investment and expense decisions.
There are also risks due to possible adverse climatic conditions, since the probability of occurrence of a phenomenon El Niño or the girl could affect agricultural and fishing production. This, finally, could end up pressing food prices and generate relevant economic losses.
Finally, it is recalled that the scaling of geopolitical tensions and intensification of the tariff trade war could lead to a lower external demand.
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