Maduro’s Exit: A Swift Political Shift?

The expert pointed out that the current pressure aims to further erode the internal bases of Chavismo, until achieving certain actors end up surrendering or surrendering to Maduro. He also stated that the Chavista leadership is nervous and scared in the face of a scenario that he described as inevitable.

“Some abandon, others desert, others stay and others are threatened, but there is no other way. A warned war does not kill soldiers,” warned the retired soldier.

Trump declared on Thursday that the pressure on Venezuela is about many things, including irregular migration and drug traffickingand accused the Chavista regime and the Venezuelan Army of allegedly being involved in shipping drugs to the United States.

Also, the US president reiterated his threat that ground attacks are being launched. “Anyone who gets involved in that is not going to do well. “They’ve treated us badly and I guess now we’re not treating them very well,” Trump said.

Missiles, satellite tracking and attacks on logistical structures

Guillermo Beltrán Vielma ruled out that the pressure would increase with land actions in the traditional sense and clarified that, rather, it would be carried out on land, that is, against targets located in Venezuelan territory but not through troop incursions as has been speculated.

He explained that precision missiles could be used against laboratory centers, warehouses, airfields, aircraft or vessels allegedly linked to the logistics apparatus of drug trafficking.

In addition, he indicated that in the operations in the Caribbean – near the coast of Venezuela and which have left more than 80 dead – they have allowed satellite systems Reconstruction of the drug route: from the hangar or warehouse where the merchandise was loaded to the vehicles that supply those boats.

“Those points,” he said, “automatically become targets of attack. Whether there are people or not, they will be directly neutralized. We will not see 30 soldiers entering a warehouse, that will not happen. “The neutralization will be with precision weapons, with or without aircraft.”

Miraflores would not be a target except for an exceptional setting

The retired soldier, however, clarified that points such as The Miraflores Palace or the places where Maduro is would not be attacked, unless the socialist leader was completely alone. In this case, he recalled the case of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani: “Something like this could happen only if I was isolated at a specific time, Otherwise, the collateral damage would be enormous and it will not be allowed.”

The lieutenant maintained that, despite the increase in military pressure in the region, it is unlikely that Washington will use precision weapons to directly attack Maduro. And he explained that an action of this type would imply a risk for civilians and people who are close to the leader, which is why — in his opinion — the option It would be a surgical extraction operation.

He assured that ordinary citizens are not in danger because this is an offensive against the “drug lords” who would control the drug trafficking networks from Venezuela. The operations, he indicated, are neutralization of the infrastructure used by Chavismowithout impact on inhabited areas.

He emphasized that Maduro’s departure from power would be increasingly closer and that “everything indicates that it will be something very precise”.

Beltrán Vielma also explained that the United States has high-precision missiles, but clarified that these types of tools would not be used against a target like Maduro. He explained that the projectiles used in recent operations, such as the AGM-179A, weigh around 50 kilos and contain between 8 and 9 kilos of explosives. To illustrate the magnitude of the damage, he pointed out that this charge is equivalent to the joint explosion of 20 or 30 grenades.

“We are not talking about a Tomahawk with 450 kilos of explosives or a nuclear warhead, but rather a small missile, accurate to the level of centimeters,” said the former officer, who pointed out that this type of projectile can be launched from a boat, helicopter or drone.

But he reiterated that there would not be such an attack against Maduro “if you are at a conference, a march or a public event” because the risk of collateral damage would be very high.

The situation will not last “months”

For Beltrán Vielma, the situation will not last for months.

He clarified that, if an offensive were to occur, the initial phase would consist of attacks with Tomahawk missiles aimed at strategic nodes: communications, networks, command centers and critical points of the Venezuelan State control system. The objective, he specified, would be to dismember the regime’s coordination capacity without yet attacking the “central command.”

The former officer stated that the second step would be to neutralize all air defense systems, starting with radars, missile batteries and any structure capable of detecting or shooting down US aircraft.

In parallel, he added, precision attacks would be directed against airfields, hangars, parked planes, warehouses linked to drug trafficking and other sensitive targets which, he stated, would already be identified by the United States intelligence services.

“They are recording everything that happens,” held.

In his analysis, the destruction of communication systems would be another component: the neutralization of everything related to communications, GPS, cell phones and antennas. The expert pointed out that these types of measures are part of any “standard attack package” in modern conflicts.

He acknowledged, however, that A massive blocking of signals would affect the civilian population and generate a broad social impact. In addition, he warned that Venezuelan authorities often surround themselves with civilians or militiamen, which would increase the risk of collateral damage if missiles are used in crowded areas.

A special forces team could stop Maduro

According to Guillermo Beltrán Vielma, If an action were carried out against Maduro, it would be a specific extraction, probably executed by special forces. For example, a team could land, arrest the leader and evacuate him, but even then there is a possibility that “some escort is injured or neutralized”, depending on the time and conditions.

The soldier (r) stated that, like any person, Maduro must sleep and move, and that these patterns can be monitored by US intelligence agencies. “That is the job of the CIA and the entire intelligence apparatus that operates in the United States,” he said.

He stressed that only those who plan the operation know the details and that the final decisions depend on the teams in charge of designing and executing the maneuvers.

The former officer also analyzed the role that Donald Trump is playing in the military deployment and in the pressure on the Maduro regime. And he stressed that the decisions announced by Trump They do not point towards a reduction of tensions, but quite the opposite. According to him, when the president admits that he has given—or will give—orders to expand a military deployment, that implies an escalation process.

“Instead of taking out ships, they are putting in; instead of taking out troops, they are putting in; instead of flying fewer missions, they are giving more missions,” he said. This increase in activity, he added, is reflected in both air and naval power, with destroyers constantly moving in the Caribbean.

Trump does not want a political cost for the United States

The lieutenant colonel (r) insisted that the US fleet operates under executive orders and that Trump maintains direct monitoring because seeks to avoid at all costs an internal political cost.

He said that the American president does not want that a single soldier, sailor or crew member of your country is injured or killed because any loss would have a very high political cost. For this reason, Washington emphasizes that there is no risk to its personnel.

“As soon as there is the first political cost, “They are going to charge you in full,” he added.

Beltrán Vielma stated that Trump “is not a man to fall down” But he has been forced to toughen his policies “due to the damage” that he believes the United States has suffered and even due to the attacks that the Republican himself suffered during his presidential campaign in the United States.

Washington’s priority – Beltrán Vielma assured – will always be to preserve the lives of its military personnel and its operators. “Before a United States soldier loses his life, The United States prefers each other’s lives, period. “I go to war, but not to die myself, but so that others die.”

In his opinion, Trump considers that he cannot allow it to continue expanding in the region “the communist, socialist, mutant arm of the 21st century, evil and lying.”

Rising tensions

“As long as there is a way for them to betray Maduro, to capture him, to detain him, the same people inside, the bodyguards, the military, will help each other solve problems. They are valid paths because no need to shoot, That is an important point, and it is logical from the humanitarian principle,” he stated.

“The United States does not want Maduro dead,” he stated.

By their reasoning, the Trump administration would prefer capture him so that he “pays with his life” for the crimes attributed to him. Killing him with a missile, he explained, would be “very easy,” but politically costly for the North American government, which would be trying to manage each step with the least possible international impact.

However, he acknowledged that any extraction would carry risks.

If the team in charge is attacked by Maduro’s bodyguards or by loyal forces, “they will have to neutralize them,” which could imply casualties among those who protect him. “Unfortunately, that is the cost of committing crimes, and even more so with the most powerful country in the world, without accepting a way out,” express.

The retired military man warned that the leaders of Chavismo They are “high-category criminals” with international arrest warrants, which raises the level of confrontation. He assured that the situation is getting worse every day and cited as a recent example the letter sent by former Venezuelan intelligence chief Hugo “el Pollo” Carvajal, who explained to the US justice system Maduro’s alleged connection with the Cartel of the Suns.

Tensions have increased in the last week, after Trump affirmed that Maduro’s days in power are numbered and that US forces seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. As well as the departure from Venezuela of the opposition leader María Corina Machado, who traveled to Oslo to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, and the sanctions against the “narco-nephews” Efraín Antonio Campo Flores, Franqui Francisco Flores and Carlos Erik Malpica Flores, nephews of Cilia Flores.

According to Beltrán Vielma, this accumulation of facts fuels Trump’s conviction that pressure must be maintained and coordinated on all fronts, from intelligence to special operations, with the aim of neutralizing the Chavista leadership.

He stated that the US president has already conveyed through multiple channels – including his Secretary of State Marco Rubio – that any conversation must take place under clear parameters. But, in his opinion, Chavismo does not seek genuine dialogue, but rather seeks to take time and benefit from it, as has happened in all the negotiations of the last decade.

The military man maintained that Rubio has a key role in the contacts due to his long experience on the Senate Intelligence Committee, in addition to the firm position he has had against the regime for years. In his opinion, the American official “They are no longer going to make a fool of him” and that is why he closely accompanies each meeting to prevent “crazy” or unrealistic promises from arising.

Maduro “represents a risk”

Beltrán Vielma insists that Maduro’s permanence in power represents a risk and that in his appearances in recent weeks he does not convey tranquility or security. The outcome, said the expert, It depends only on whether the Chavista leader finally agrees to leave Venezuela, although he considers that his public messages indicate exactly the opposite.

His analysis highlights that negotiating with figures like Maduro always follows the same pattern: “You can try to negotiate 20 times, threaten him, lower his guard, explain to him, tell him not to do it, but in the end the only option will be force.”

From Oslo, Machado spoke about the opportunities given to Maduro to leave power after his failure in the presidential elections of July 28, when Edmundo González defeated him at the polls with the support of more than 7 million Venezuelans.

“The situation is moving and accelerating with each passing day, both due to external pressure and internal reactions, from Venezuelan society and from those actors who are still today, who are less and less, accompanying the regime. We have been very clear: President Edmundo González and I, from the day we won the election, We have offered the possibility of a negotiated transition, which is obviously part of the recognition of the popular will of July 28,” said Machado.

“It is not a negotiation to favor the regime, but to assert the popular sovereignty expressed by Venezuelans. The regime still has that option, but what we have said is that Maduro is going to leave, with or without negotiation. We would like it to be through a negotiation and it is in Maduro’s interest that it be that way, that if he is finally going to do it, or let him do it, we will see,” added the opposition leader.

Likewise, the lieutenant (r) analyzed that Washington would already be thinking about a later scenario to “control and make the transition as best and as quickly as possible”, aware that there would be armed groups willing to resist, reorganize or attempt a counterattack.

He stated that Maduro no longer has room to escape to another country or to guarantee himself a safe exile.

“At this point and on this day, I don’t think there is an option for him to go somewhere else. It may happen, but he doesn’t leave, he escapes, no. Now he comes out either imprisoned or with his legs forward, as we say in Creoles, or with a pine suit,” he concluded.