On the evening of January 2, an anonymous user placed a final bet on Polymarket, a blockchain-backed predictive betting platform that allows you to bet on everything – from elections to the weather, including the possibility of a ceasefire before the end of the year in Ukraine and TV series. His prediction? Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will no longer be in power by January 31.
Less than five hours later, Caracas was shaken by explosions: Donald Trump had just launched a military operation to capture the Chavista leader. The unknown bettor cashed in a winnings of $410,000, for a stake of around $34,000 (around 350,000 euros for 29,000 euros). A sequence “perfect” which, according to The Washington Post, “fueled suspicions: a person close to power [aux États-Unis] allegedly used secret internal information about the [très confidentielle] American get-rich-quick operation”.
In the columns of the American daily, several elements reinforce these suspicions: the account was only created a few days earlier, the bets were very targeted, and more than half of the amount was placed in the hours preceding the attack. “He was probably an insider,” says Tre Upshaw, creator of Polysights, a suspicious activity detection tool on Polymarket. The suspicion is all the stronger because the White House had carefully kept the operation secret. The Wall Street Journal reports that only a few senior officials had access to it, with the mobilization of 150 fighter planes deployed throughout the American continent.
Imminent pileup
In Washington, the affair did not go unnoticed. Business Insider reveals that Democratic MP Ritchi Torres is preparing to table a bill aimed at prohibiting American elected officials and civil servants from speculating on predictive markets when they “have confidential information related to the transaction or when they can obtain it in the course of their official functions”. “The proposed bill would exclude people who work in government bodies,” summarizes the information site.
Indeed, accusations of complacency towards questionable practices are increasing against Polymarket. In December, remember The Washington Posta user – since nicknamed “Google insider” – had raked in $1.2 million. He had successfully bet on search trends and the release date of version 3 of Gemini, Google’s artificial intelligence. “What’s great about Polymarket is that the platform gives a financial incentive to bring information out into the open,” even defended its CEO, Shayne Coplan, cited by Business Insider.
Trump Jr. on the board
Meanwhile, the industry is booming. According to a report cited by The Guardian, the total amount of stakes increased from less than 100 million dollars at the start of 2024 (85.5 million euros) to more than 13 billion at the end of 2025 (11.1 billion euros). Bloomberg adds that large financial groups like CME Group or Intercontinental Exchange are investing massively in the sector, seeing it as a new tool for economic anticipation – or insurance, in their words. Even Donald Trump Jr. joined the board of directors of Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the most prominent platforms.
But when betting on war, catastrophe or regime change, limits appear. “It’s like finding yourself facing an imminent pileup, and not being able to look away,” summarizes Lia Nower, director of the Center for Gambling Studies at Rutgers University, in an interview with the American magazine.
